John Means Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

John Means has gone seven innings in back to back starts, allowing a total of three runs without a walk and 11 strikeouts. He’s more contact management (31.1% 95+ mph EV, 6.6% Barrels/BBE) than strikeouts (19.2%), but his 9.6 HR/FB is quite the accomplishment in a season when Baltimore pitching has shattered the previous HR record, even if it’s probably not sustainable in this environment. Thus, his 3.55 ERA is quite a bit lower than estimators (4.40 FIP, 4.65 DRA, .304 xwOBA), but he’s still likely at least an average arm. That puts him in a great spot tonight at a low price on DraftKings ($6.1K). Outside of a short stretch post-All-Star game, the Rangers have been terrible against LHP this year (83 wRC+, 26.3 K%). Six of the nine batters in tonight’s lineup are above a 26 K% vs LHP this year. Over the last week, the Rangers have just a 59 wRC+, 19 K-BB% and 10.9 HR/FB. Baltimore is not a pitcher friendly park, but Means is far too cheap in this spot.

John Means has allowed exactly one earned run in seven of his 10 starts. Estimators are not nearly buying into the 2.67 ERA with a .249 BABIP, 79.7 LOB% and 9.1 HR/FB, but only his 4.97 xFIP is much higher than league average. A 13.7 K-BB% and 87.2 mph aEV agrees that he might have league average upside all things taken into consideration, which is a major win for this Baltimore staff. While there is nothing special about that at cost a bit above $7K in what’s considered a dangerous park in Baltimore, it’s really nearly a neutral run environment and this is another spot where weather could give pitchers a boost, especially LH pitching with winds blowing in from left field. The Toronto offense has not seen much improvement against southpaws even with the arrival of Vlad Jr., as they’re still toting a 76 wRC+ with a 24.1 K% and 10.7 HR/FB against lefties this year. So although he’s certainly not as good as his ERA suggests, Means still has some value in what should be a favorable spot at a cost below $8K.

We got to see the rare pitching duel between the Tigers and Orioles in Baltimore last night, but a repeat performance shouldn’t be expected on Wednesday. Ryan Carpenter has just an 8.0 SwStr% over three starts with 49% of his contact above a 95 mph EV, resulting in a 27.8 HR/FB so far. While neither that or his 9.00 ERA are likely sustainable, a 4.66 SIERA is his lowest estimator, while sitting on a .356 xwOBA. Carpenter’s career is still a very small sample, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .400 wOBA against him. Hanser Alberto (172 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Renato Nunez (115 wRC+, .219 ISO) are the only batters in the Baltimore projected lineup above average against LHP over the last calendar year, but Carpenter seems to make most hitters above average against him.

John Means showed some potential in early starts for the O’s, but has just a 12.8 K% and 6.9 SwStr% over his last five with a 5.58 SIERA and .357 xwOBA. RHBs have a career .324 wOBA (.343 xwOBA) against him. He’ll have to face a few more slightly potent bats against LHP, including Miguel Cabrera (165 wRC+, .147 ISO, 50 Hard%), Nick Castellanos (165 wRC+, .213 ISO, 50.5 Hard%) and Ronny Rodriguez (107 wRC+, .227 ISO). Both teams are within a quarter of a run of five implied runs on Wednesday night, but neither is among the top three or four projected offenses tonight.

John Means has been a rare bright spot for the O’s, allowing just two runs over 10 innings in his last two starts with a 15.3 SwStr% and 72.7 Z-Contact% on the season. He worked up to 92 pitches last time out and has a .283 xwOBA in 2019. Although a lot of his work has been out of the pen, his numbers are simply amazing (19.7 K-BB%, 1.8 Hard-Soft%) and this is a very winnable matchup against a White Sox offense with just a 90 wRC+, 19.7 K-BB% and 6.5 HR/FB vs LHP so far. Further in his favor, Weather Edge (premium subscription required) suggests some pretty pitcher friendly conditions in Chicago tonight. Players are likely going to pay up for their pitcher on FanDuel, but an affordable secondary arm on DraftKings is going to be useful tonight and Means is the second cheapest arm at $7K tonight.