Jon Lester Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The two most expensive pitchers on the board claim two of the highest upside matchups, but a third belongs to another lefty we normally wouldn’t consider anymore, but may be forced to under tonight’s circumstances. Despite having a predominantly RH lineup and due to some injuries, the Marlins have just an 84 wRC+ with a 28.3 K% vs LHP this season. Jon Lester costs less than $7K and before you scoff, he struck out a season high six Mets last time out, but also has had at least an 11 SwStr% in five of his last seven starts. With everything else being around average or slightly better (7.9 BB%, 42.2 GB%, 88 mph EV, 6.7% Barrels/BBE) any increase to his 16.3 K% could make him a more interesting arm. This is a matchup that should boost his strikeout rate too. Keeping with SP2 DK choices below $7K, Dane Dunning has completed six innings just twice and gone no further, but is effectively throwing tons of sinkers to combine a 55.3 GB% with a 24.8 K%. A 4.71 ERA is well above all of his estimators, due to a .384 BABIP (.425 last 11 starts). He should have some value against the Royals (91 wRC+, 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP).

A bit more expensively, we have Chris Paddack, Griffin Canning, Mike Minor and Pablo Lopez. Paddack looked to be settling in as a perfectly average pitcher, but with his velocity slowly increasing, he’s now struck out 20 of his last 46 batters with a 21.6 SwStr% with half his contact on the ground. Suddenly, his worst estimator is a 3.81 xERA (9.9% Barrels/BBE) with a 20.5 K-BB%. His ERA remains above four due to a low strand rate (65.7 LOB%). He’s still less than $9K against an Arizona offense with just a 79 wRC+, 24.9 K% and 9.0 HR/FB vs RHP. Despite a 14.7 SwStr%, Canning has been unable to turn that into an elite strikeout rate (24.4%), for which he suffers because the rest of his profile can be a bit troubling at times (10.1 BB%, 33.8 GB%, 9.7% Barrels/BBE). A 4.17 xERA and 4.38 SIERA suggest he’s an average pitcher already, but all other estimators are within half a run of his 5.07 ERA. He gets a park upgrade tonight, but simply, what we like here is that there is just one batter in the projected Tampa Bay lineup below a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020. Canning is $8K or less on either site.

A 4.78 DRA is the only estimator not close to a half run below Minor’s 4.48 ERA with a 71.1% strand rate that seems a bit light for his 18.8 K-BB% with a near average contact profile. The Rangers have an 83 wRC+ against LHP this year with three batters in the projected lineup above a 28 K% vs LHP since 2020, but nobody else above 20%, which is a surprise. Minor is within $300 of $8.5K on either site and Texas, with the roof closed, has played as a negative run environment. Lopez is a within $300 of $9K on either site and has flipped the script in his last two starts, pitching well at Wrigley, but struggling at home against the Braves. He’s generally had significant home/road splits since reaching the majors, pitching much better at home, mostly due to a lower home run rate. Estimators run fairly tightly around three and a half this year, more than a half run above his 2.86 ERA (78.8 LOB%). The Nationals have a 93 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but just three of eight batters in the projected lineup exceed a 20 K% since last year.

Jon Lester has had a great career, but is clearly a pitcher in decline in his age 35 season. While there’s nothing wrong with being a league average pitcher at that age, the amount of hard contact he’s allowed recently has been concerning. Along with a .386 xwOBA over the last 30 days, he has now allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE on the season with a DRA that’s crept above five (5.09). In four of his last five starts, he’s allowed at least three runs in no more than five innings and the “good” start over that span came against one of the worst offenses in the league against LHP (Pirates), a game in which Lester walked five without allowing a run. While Citi Field should be considered an upgrade for pitchers, Lester will be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup with quite a bit of power, who have been tough on southpaws this year (111 wRC+, 17.3 HR/FB). Oddsmakers are still buying into Lester. A 4.13 implied run line for the Mets puts them on the bottom half of the board. This offers DFS players a contrarian opportunity. RHBs have a .317 wOBA, .329 xwOBA vs Lester over the last calendar year, while LHBs have been even better (.366 wOBA, .383 xwOBA). Look for Amed Rosario (144 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jeff McNeil (135 wRC+, .156 ISO) at the top of the order ahead of some combination J.D. Davis (128 wRC+, .186 ISO), Pete Alonso (149 wRC+, .387 ISO), Wilson Ramos (136 wRC+, .173 ISO), Todd Frazier (112 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Michael Conforto (96 wRC+, .181 ISO). Only Alonso and Conforto are above $3K on FanDuel where a Mets stack might also get you their pitcher, the top overall arm on the mound tonight.

While Fenway is the most positive run environment on the board tonight with no consideration of outside factors, Wrigley may be playing the part of Coors tonight with winds blowing out to RF at around 15 mph. The bump given to power and overall run scoring by Weather Edge (premium tool) is pretty tremendous tonight.

Julio Teheran is down to a 14.7 K% over the last month, though he’s allowed just one HR over his last nine starts. While Teheran has seemingly solved his issue with LHBs over the last calendar year (.297 wOBA) that may be an illusion as xwOBA credits them with a 43 point bump over that period, which makes sense with a 38.8 Hard% and 34.8 GB%. Teheran’s 11.5 BB% does not inspire confidence either. The obvious plays here are Kyle Schwarber (106 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Anthony Rizzo (158 wRC+, .255 ISO) with Jason Heyward (100 wRC+, .148 ISO) and Carlos Gonzalez (92 wRC+, .167 ISO) showing league average tendencies that will receive a weather boost tonight. The latter duo each cost $2.5K or less on FanDuel.

For the home team, Jon Lester doesn’t issue free passes (5.5%) and still strikes out batters at a league average rate (22.7%), but that may be an illusion (8.3 SwSt%). His 4.13 ERA has nearly caught up with estimators, none of which are lower, due to a 6.44 ERA and 6.03 FIP over the last month. An 88.9 mph aEV and 10.3% Barrels/BBE make matters even worse. His .349 xwOBA is fourth worst on the board tonight and he’ll have to contend with an Atlanta offense with a 108 wRC+, 20.8 K% and 17 HR/FB vs LHP this year. The good news is that the wind is blowing out to right field instead of left. The bad is that LHBs (.406 wOBA, .381 xwOBA) have hit him even harder than RHBs (.331 wOBA, .334 xwOBA) over the last 12 months. Freddie Freeman (119 wRC+, .206 ISO) has hit same-handed pitching well over that span and tops the team with a 61.1 Hard% over the last week (10 PA min.). A lineup that leans predominantly right-handed here is certainly useful too with both offense implied for well over five runs tonight.

WeatherEdge is loving the pitchers in Wrigley tonight as the weather projects to favor them quite a bit (WeatherEdge available to premium subscribers).

Jon Lester will be at home to face the White Sox and is one of the better pts/$ pitchers on the board tonight. On the season, Lester has been decent with a 4.08 ERA / 4.20 xFIP/ 4.16 SIERA with a 22.6% K rate, 5.6% BB rate. He gets a matchup with the White Sox who have a 96 wRC+ and 24.1% K rate versus LHP on the year. The White Sox also have just a 23rd ranked .312 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Lester is just $7.4k on Draftkings and $7.5k on Fanduel and is a great bet to hit value with the White Sox projected for just 3.18 runs tonight.

Lucas Giolito has continued his breakout season with a 0.95 ERA / 3.37 xFIP / 3.19 SIERA and 32.4% K rate over the past 30 days. He’s also allowed just a 26.2% hard contact rate and .275 xwOBA over that time frame. The Cubs aren’t an easy matchup with a 105 wRC+ and 22.5% K rate vs. RHP on the year, though Giolito shouldn’t have too many problems preventing runs in this environment and has one of the better ceilings of all pitchers on the slate given his K%. The Cubs currently have a 3.82 implied line vs. him and the White Sox tonight.

Jon Lester has allowed 12 runs (nine earned) over his last two starts and while his peripherals had been improving most recently, prior to these two starts, it wasn’t hard to see some regression coming. His strikeout rate (23.3%) remains above league average despite an 8.2 SwStr% and just 7.5% over the last month. He’s still sitting on a 2.68 ERA despite a 3.92 SIERA, 4.42 DRA and .364 xwOBA. Some of this basically comes down to unearned runs (six of his 20 allowed this year), while he’s actually been getting hit pretty hard too (89.2 mph aEV). His 11.0% Barrels/BBE is the third highest mark on the board. The Astros generally feast on LHP. That may not be so pronounced with Springer and Altuve out, but there are still some dangerous bats in this lineup. It starts with Alex Bregman (163 wRC+, .268 ISO), but among those in the projected lineup who have more than a few days of big league experience, none of the RHBs are below a 120 wRC+ or .178 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. The more interesting thing is that Lester has actually been much worse against LHBs over this time span (.386 wOBA vs .309) and this is actually confirmed by a 52 point separation by xwOBA too. For the Astros, Josh Reddick (145 wRC+, .235 ISO) has hit LHP well over the last 12 months. Those certainly aren’t his true talent numbers, but they’re worth something. Michael Brantley has not (79 wRC+, .069). Jack Mayfield and Garrett Stubbs are new arrivals that add minimum price tag value to Houston stacks.

Jon Lester has seen further velocity loss in his first start of the season and did not pitch that well even if he did allow only two runs through six innings in Texas. He struck out only three batters with a .176 BABIP despite a 27.8 LD% and 58.8 Z-O-Swing%, which means he wasn’t fooling too many batters. He generated just six ground balls with a 44.4 Hard%. Additionally, the Braves are implied for a second best 4.74 runs on tonight’s five game slate in a game featuring a hitter friendly umpire in Marvin Hudson and an adequate weather situation with a temperature near 70 degrees. The moneyline in this game has moved in Atlanta’s favor as well. While Lester was actually worse against LHBs last season (.364 wOBA vs .306), Statcast contact numbers suggest a 42 point bump to that latter number might have been warranted (.348 xwOBA, 43.6 Hard% vs RHBs). Atlanta features a lineup where each of the first seven batters have a wRC+ 105 or better against LHP since last season. Of those, only Nick Markakis is below a .198 ISO against them in that span.

If last season was an indication, it appears as though Jon Lester’s tenure as a high-quality ace is a thing of the past. Striking out 19.6% of his opponents and posting a 4.56 XFIP, Lester’s platoon splits were almost as shocking as the fact that he can’t throw a pickoff to first base as a lefty. Lester was solid against right-handed hitters in 2018, allowing a .131 ISO and .306 wOBA. However, he was tormented by lefties (.243 ISO, .383 wOBA). Not only will the Rangers welcome Lester to their hitter-friendly confines, but they will likely feature four left-handed hitters who pose risks to southpaw hurlers. Joey Gallo (.274 ISO, .352 wOBA against LHP last season) stands out as the clear top option due to his power upside, but Shin-Soo Choo (.208 ISO, .389 wOBA) also performed effectively against lefties last season. Rougned Odor (.201 ISO, .337 wOBA) and Nomar Mazara (.174 ISO, .343 wOBA) also grade out as viable options in the anti-platoon strategy against Lester, but Gallo possesses the highest upside by a considerable amount based on his multi-HR upside. This spot may go relatively overlooked due to the presumed lefty-on-lefty disadvantage, but rostering any of the four above in tournaments could get you exposure to this game and its high projected total while avoiding right-handed shortstop Elvis Andrus (.092 ISO, .284 wOBA), who Chris Gimino projects as one of the chalkiest options on the Opening Day slate.