Jonathan Lucroy Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Since joining the Brewers mid-season, Gio Gonzalez has mostly been a serviceable pitcher with a 4.34 ERA / 4.71 xFIP and 11% K-BB. However, he has run into some trouble of late, posting a 5.87 ERA, 5.82 SIERA, .380 xwOBA allowed, 5.5% K-BB and 1.96 HR/9 over the past 30 days. Gio’s had some control problems given his 14.7% BB rate and 29.5% zone rate over the past 30 days. He’s also had a very hard time getting righties out, allowing a .411 xwOBA to RHB over the past month. The Cubs have a 106 wRC+ over the past month and have some options to choose from in their projected lineup today: Kris Bryant (.424 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Nick Castellanos (.411), Javier Baez (.360), Anthony Rizzo (.335), Jonathan Lucroy (.290), Jason Heyward (.265) and Ian Happ (.246) are all potential options. Rizzo has swung a hot bat of late as he has a .481 xwOBA over the last 2 weeks. Heyward isn’t a particularly exciting option, but he’s projected to leadoff and is decently affordable across the industry. Happ and Lucroy are affordable options as well, but have struggled this year and will hit towards the bottom of the order. The Brewers have a 5th worst 4.93 SIERA from their bullpen over the past month, further sweetening the matchup here. They currently have a 4.89 implied total which feels a bit low.

Mike Fiers has pitched much worse than his ERA suggests this year, as he’s put up a 4.20 ERA while also posting a 5.54 xFIP, 5.30 SIERA with an 8.5% K-BB%, 43.1% FB rate and .329 xwOBA. Fiers has shown no signs of improvement as he has a 5.65 xFIP, 5.60 SIERA, 6.4% K-BB and 41.3% FB rate. The Angels have been the hottest offense in baseball over the past month with a 121 wRC+ and will have a number of good options in their lineup tonight at home vs. Fiers. Mike Trout (.496 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Justin Upton (.472 in 33 PA), Shohei Ohtani (.397), Tommy La Stella (.361), Kole Calhoun (.349), Luis Rengifo (.329), Albert Pujols (.312) and Jonathan Lucroy (.322) are all in play tonight vs. Fiers. Justin Bour is also an intriguing option as he has a .469 xwOBA over the past 14 days as he seems to have straightened his swing out during his time in the minors; he can be had for just $4k on Draftkings. Tommy La Stella ($4k), Justin Upton ($3.9k), Kole Calhoun ($4k) and Jonathan Lucroy ($3.1k) all stand out as great values. The Angels have a healthy 5.44 implied total vs. Fiers and the A’s tonight.

In two starts so far in 2019, Milone has pitched to a solid 3.38 ERA / 3.24 xFIP and 11 K/9. However, Milone hasn’t put up a respectable season since 2015 and still projects as a roughly 5 ERA pitcher by most projection systems. He also had a 5.49 xFIP in 49 innings at the AAA level this year and is still averaging 88 MPH on his fastball. Mike Trout (.417 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Albert Pujols (.395), Kole Calhoun (.355), David Fletcher (.353), Tommy La Stella (.345), Shohei Ohtani (.344) and Jonathan Lucroy (.333) have all been above average vs. LHP this year and are projected to be in the LAA lineup. Cesar Puello has been the Angels’ hottest hitter with a .559 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Angels have a 4.63 implied line vs. Milone and the Angels, which feels a tad low.

Nolan Arenado is the top projected player, which is not a surprise at all when he's facing a left-handed pitcher at Coors, but that it's by more than a point and a half on either site according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections is eye opening. Arenado has a 222 wRC+ and .444 ISO vs LHP this year, while RHBs have a .372 wOBA and 36.7 Hard% against Clayton Richard this year, though he does have a 63.9 GB% against them over his last nine starts. Ian Desmond also appears among the top 10 projections, but it's Cleveland that floods the top of the board with three batters (Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion and Francisco Lindor) inside the top 10. They face Jason Vargas, who has just one more strikeout (seven) than HR (six) over his last four starts. Since the start of July, he has a 41.3 Hard%. RHBs have 15 HR of 16 HRs allowed, but either side has a wOBA above .400 with a hard hit rate above 40%. Those paying up for pitching should note that Justin Smoak (4.37 Pt/$/K) is just $2.9K on FanDuel against Bartolo Colon, while both Gregory Polanco (4 Pt/$/K) and Josh Bell (3.96 Pt/$/K) are below $3K against Homer Bailey. On DraftKings, Kendrys Morales (2.83 Pt/$/K) is just $3.6K, while Desmond (2.81 Pt/$/K) and Jonathan Lucroy (2.65 Pt/$/K) are both well below $4K as well.

When the Rockies are at home, either Charlie Blackmon or Nolan Arenado are generally the top projected player on the slate depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher. With Johnny Cueto having an injury riddled season and potentially the worst one of his career without much of a platoon split (batters from either side above a .325 wOBA and 32 Hard%), Blackmon and Arenado appear one-two in the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. Gerardo Parra and Mark Reynolds make it four Rockies among the top eight on either site with only one batter from the opposing side at Coors appearing in the top 10 and Buster Posey left last night's game due to injury. Other names among the top 10 on both sites tonight are Giancarlo Stanton, who has cooled down to a 44 wRC+ and 29.4 Hard% over the last week and has a difficult matchup, though the platoon advantage against Gio Gonzalez, and Rhys Hoskins (197 wRC+, .368 ISO vs RHP, 184 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days), who's biggest concern against Robert Gsellman (RHBs .368 wOBA, 32.6 Hard%) might be the weather. Value bats may be a bit more difficult to go for tonight unless players are willing to punt with minimum priced or near minimally priced batters. Among those projected for at least eight points on either site, Parra (2.3 Pt/$/K) projects to double as a top value along with teammate Jonathan Lucroy (2.28 Pt/$/K) on DraftKings. On FanDuel, it may be Reynolds who doubles as a top value (3.52 Pt/$/K) along with Salvador Perez (3.55 Pt/$/K).

After a hot start to the 2017 campaign, Wade Miley has officially come back down to earth the last couple of months, allowing at least four runs in eight of his last ten starts and pitching into the sixth inning on just three occasions. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with a Texas Rangers squad that has the ability to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor being the only lefties in the Texas lineup this evening. Miley's strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 18.5%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.6% over that same time period. Miley's 51.0% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us from Rangers hitters considering he is also surrendering a 23.5% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 32.8% of the time. With that said, the Rangers remain likely to be one of the most popular offenses on Thursday's slate. With how much ownership the Rangers top bats are expected to attract, it definitely isn't a horrible idea to try to get creative with your Texas stacks or even fade entirely, especially in large field tournaments given the Rangers overall weak numbers against left-handed pitching this season. However, the primary reason the Rangers stats against southpaws are so dismal to this point is due to a small sample size, as none of their players have even come close to eclipsing the 100 plate appearances plateau. Based on numbers from the last two seasons, Adrian Beltre (152 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP), Robinson Chirinos (129 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .276 ISO vs LHP), and Mike Napoli (117 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) stand out as the premier plays from this Texas lineup, though Chirinos' spot in the batting order should reserve him to tournament exposure only. Falling into the tier as secondary hitting options are Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .348 wOBA), who is a borderline elite play based on his 2017 numbers alone, Jonathan Lucroy (.239 ISO vs LHP), and even Delino DeShields could be worth a speculatory play as a stack filler given his batting order position of lead off.