Jordan Lyles Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If you’ve read today’s PlateIQ live blog, you already know who the top projected value on the slate is, but there is only one other pitcher costing more than $9K on FanDuel currently projecting among the top 12 values. Considering it’s only a nine game slate, that’s two-thirds of a board, so which of those pitchers might be usable on a single pitcher site. Jordan Lyles has just an 18.2 K% (11.1 K-BB%), while allowing 55 barrels (10.6%), but has allowed just five of his 23 home runs at home, thanks to the dimensional changes in Baltimore. However, all that hard contact has resulted in a .323 BABIP with a 4.70 ERA that’s still within half a run of all estimators. Lyles has allowed at least four runs in four of his last six starts. This is probably all as awful as it sounds, but even worse is the offense he’ll be facing (Tigers 72 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 6.5 BB%, 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP). Not only does this make Lyles the second best projected value on either site for less than $7.5K, but he’s even the fourth best projected pitcher overall on FanDuel. For tonight and tonight only, you have permission to use Jordan Lyles on FanDuel.

Tonight’s third best projected value on either site costs $6K or less, but Tucker Davidson has faced a good amount of batters (201) with more walks (30) than strikeouts (27). With a -1.5 K-BB% (91.9 Z-Contact%), even 5.0% Barrels/BBE can only help you so much. While his 6.96 ERA is above all estimators, a 4.85 xERA is the lowest of those by nearly a full run. Sure, it’s a great park if the roof remains closed with a pitcher friendly umpire, but the Rangers have a 115 wRC+, 22.9 K% and 16.6 HR/FB vs LHP. It’s not without upside, but seems more risk than reward.

Opposite Davidson, Dane Dunning continues to generate ground balls at a good clip (53.4%), but after a strong start, a 6.4 K-BB% over his 17 starts has him down to 10.4% on the year, while he’s also allowed seven home runs on 14 barrels (13.9%) over his last six starts, despite sustaining a 51.5 GB% over this span. Dunning’s 4.49 ERA matches his FIP and is within half a run of all remaining estimators. His only Quality Start in his last seven took place against the A’s. The Angels have a 93 wRC+ with a 27.0 K% vs RHP and Dunning is within $300 of $7K on either site.

In his first start in over three months, Bailey Ober dominated Cleveland, striking out five of 19 batters, allowing only a single walk and hit. A league average strikeout rate (21.1%) with great control (5.0 BB%) seems like it should create better non-FIP estimators than those ranging from a 4.20 SIERA to a 4.41 xERA, especially with a 32.5% hard hit rate, but an extremely low ground ball rate (25.9%) will do that. He’s allowed 11 barrels (9.4%), though just two have left the yard. Ober has also only completed six innings twice in eight starts. The slider has been a weapon (22.8%, -2.4 RV/100, 33.8 Whiff%), but that’s the only pitch the Royals (88 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP) have done well against since the break (0.7 wSL/C). However, this is a park where his extreme fly ball lean could work (Royals 7.7 HR/FB at home) and he is $7.7K or less.

Dustin May has struck out 25 of the 105 batters he’s faced, but also walked 12. Also, nine of those strikeouts and just two of those walks came in his first outing against the Marlins. That makes it just a 6.9 K-BB% over his last four starts, though the velocity did bump back up again last start. He has generated 50.8% of his contact on the ground with an 87.3 mph EV. His 3.46 ERA lines up well with a 3.40 xERA, but all additional estimators are more than a quarter run higher, some above four. May is within $300 of $8.5K on either site and the Diamondbacks have a 96 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP. They also have a league low 59 wRC+ with a 25.3 K-BB% over the last week.

Aside from weather conditions and park factors, there is not a lot to like in terms of pitching choices tonight. There’s one clear top arm (Julio Urias), who clears every other pitcher by more than $1K on either site. Then there’s a ridiculously priced Rich Hill on DraftKings ($9K) and nobody else above $8.1K on either site. On the one hand, Urias has an 18 K% and 4.72 SIERA through two starts. On the other, he has a 12.1 SwStr% and has been an exceptional contact manager (28.6% 95+ mph EV since 2020). The most interesting piece of information might be that Urias has faced 25 batters in each of his two starts, a number he didn’t reach once in 2020. He threw just 79 pitches first time out and was very efficient, but 95 last time out.

Considering everyone is going to be on Urias and DraftKings players also need a secondary, the question is: where do you go next? Patrick Corbin would be the logical choice, but has shown some concerning traits (namely velocity and inefficiency against RHBs) since last season. Sean Manaea will also likely be highly owned, doesn’t have a ton of upside and is also facing a solid lineup against LHP that just torched Houston pitching. Let’s take a look at tonight’s lottery ticket: Jordan Lyles. He struck out one of 19 Padres with a 6.4 SwStr% and two walks his second time out, but eight of 23 Royals in his season debut (15.8 SwStr%) without a walk his first time out and his velocity has been up a bit both times. Lyles may be the most volatile pitcher on the slate, but that may be what we want here. He could get blown up, but he’s also facing a lineup that includes six batters with at least a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019 via PlateIQ and four above 28%. LineupHQ is currently projecting Lyles for single digit ownership, but he may just be the wild card you need in GPPs tonight.

Jordan Lyles had his strongest start since May last time out against the Phillies (5.2 IP – 1 R – 7 K). While he does allow a bit too much hard contact (42.1% 95+ mph EV, 8.8% Barrels/BBE), resulting in a league average .319 xwOBA, he can miss a few bats (25 K%) and despite a 4.91 ERA, has estimators all below 4.50, which more or less agrees with Statcast’s assessment. He’s facing a below average offense (Cardinals 88 wRC+, 12.7 HR/FB, 14.4 K-BB% vs RHP) in a slightly negative run environment, but Lyles also has a reasonable platoon split. RHBs have just a .285 wOBA and .305 xwOBA against him since last season and he’ll face six of them tonight, including the pitcher. There are no left-handed bats in this lineup that should scare him. Lyles carries enough risk to where he’s probably not one of tonight’s top overall pitchers, but he doesn’t have to be as he costs less than $7K on either site, which means players could easily pair him with a Syndergaard, Bieber or Corbin. Lyles has shown the upside this year to end up a top value tonight.

The Brewers have a good matchup with Jordan Lyles in PNC Park today have a number of cheap options. Lyles has a decent 3.09 ERA, but a 3.99 xFIP, 4.15 SIERA and 88.9 aEV hint that Lyles hasn’t been quite as good as his ERA suggests. Lyles still projects as a roughy 4.5+ ERA pitcher heading forward by all the popular projection systems. With the exception of Christian Yelich, all Brewers bats can be had for $4.3k or less on Draftkings. Christian Yelich (.447 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $5.6k), Keston Hiura (.374, $3.6k), Yasmani Grandal (.332, $4.3k), Jesus Aguilar (.322, $2.9k), Ryan Braun (.319, $4k), and Lorenzo Cain (.314, $3.7k, likely leading off). Orlando Arcia has been the Brewers’ hottest hitter over the past 10 days with a .440 xwOBA and is just $3.3k on DK. The Pirates also have been on of the worst bullpens in the league over the past 30 days with a 5.85 ERA and 5.01 WHIP. The Brewers currently have a 4.5 implied total vs. Lyles and the Pirates.