Jorge De La Rosa Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Daily fantasy players are likely to have a lot of lineup adjusting to do now. Not only is Matt Carpenter out, but Mike Matheny is still insistent on stacking lefties up top against Jorge de la Rosa. Batters from either side may have a wOBA just above .360 against him this season, but historically RHBs have a wOBA 50 points higher and a 35.2 Hard% some five plus points higher against him this year. While this is still a very stackable offense that players will want to find a way to pay up for some exposure too, it's a bit less attractive than we'd hoped. Perhaps that will work in favor or lower ownership rates on top of the order bats here. Stephen Piscotty (157 wRC+, .245 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is still the "must have" in this lineup. Yadier Molina (111 wRC+ vs LHP this season) is probably the top Catcher on the slate. Randal Grichuk (102 wRC+, .243 ISO vs LHP this season) is the only other above average bat against LHP). Jedd Gyrko (91 wRC+, .141 ISO vs LHP this season) still has significant value in the two hole for less than $4K on either site.

This Diamondbacks lineup is perfectly suited to face a below average left-handed pitcher like Jorge De La Rosa. He gets a good 49.2% ground ball rate to right-handed batters, but with below average strikeouts (16.8%) and high walks (9.7%), there is a lot of upside for the Diamondbacks bats in this spot. They have three hitters with hard hit rates above 40% against lefties, Paul Goldschmidt (176 wRC+, .443 wOBA, .236 ISO), Yasmany Tomas (184 wRC+, .454 wOBA, .336 ISO), and Welington Castillo (135 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .264 ISO). Add in Brandon Drury (.191 ISO, 33% hard hits) and there is a lot to like here, either as a stack or as one offs in tournaments.

Jorge de la Rosa is not a terrible pitcher, but he’s also not a good pitcher. He posts below average strikeouts (17.0%) and above average walks (10.2%) with just above average ground balls (48.2%). These numbers add up to a 4.88 ERA and 4.90 SIERA. This matchup would be much more appealing if the Giants weren't ranked 26th in wOBA and 27th in ISO over the past month. But Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Eduardo Nunez, and Angel Pagan are all in play despite the recent rough stretch at Coors Field against Jorge De La Rosa. Of course it is viable to fade a cold team when they’ll be popular, but this is not a spot that should be overlooked. Posey is the top catcher on the slate by a huge margin with his elite plate discipline and .396 OBP against lefties, and Pence brings a .284 ISO and 36% hard hit rate to the table making him one of the top outfield options.

The Diamondbacks offense matches up extremely well with Jorge De La Rosa, but they are priced accordingly and we will especially have to pay for them on DraftKings. For example, Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt (176 wRC+, .444 wOBA, .248 ISO vs LHP), Welington Castillo (153 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP), and Yasmany Tomas (157 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) all have price tags of $4.9K or higher. The most obvious play of the group is A.J. Pollock (131 wRC, .369 wOBA, .177 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who is locked in to the two spot in the order and is still priced significantly cheaper than the other top Arizona bats. Pollock should be one of the highest owned offensive player on the entire slate (as indicated by our Projected Ownership page), but it honestly won't be high enough to be fade worthy with the full slate. Jorge de la Rosa has a 9.9% walk rate, 31.4% hard hit rate, and a 4.81 SIERA, so don’t expect him to fare well at Coors Field tonight or any night he is facing a right-heavy lineup like the Diamondbacks.

Jorge de la Rosa has the strange reputation for being a better pitcher at home than on the road. This technically true since de la Rosa is terrible on the road, where he is just merely bad at home. His numbers have also really lacked any sort of consistency from season to season, making his career splits at home the preferred data to analyze. Versus right-handed batters at Coors Field, de la Rosa owns a 18.1% strikeout rate, a 48.1% ground ball rate, and a 30.2% hard contact rate. This basically equates to below-average strikeouts, a mediocre batted ball profile, amd a hard contact rate that is slightly above average. However, de la Rosa has seen much more success against left-handed batters at Coors in his career, posting a 24.8% strikeout rate, 49.0% ground ball rate, and a 26.5% hard contact rate. The Nationals hitters that line up best in this matchup are right-handed batters that hit the ball in the air and make hard contact against left-handed pitching. This means that Jayson Werth (177 wRC+, .439 wOBA, .270 ISO vs LHP), Wilson Ramos (159 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .309 ISO vs LHP), Anthony Rendon (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .156 ISO vs LHP), Danny Espinosa (.272 ISO vs LHP), and Trea Turner are the preferred Washington bats to target.

This series switches to Texas for two games, which is an offensive step down from few parks aside from Coors, so Jorge de la Rosa's .343 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season should probably be taken with a small grain of salt, though they do have a .369 wOBA on the road against him this year too (.306 last year). The Rangers are projected for a slate high 6.1 runs with the top four batters projecting extremely well and firmly in play on either site with only Desmond (131 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP since last season) above $3.3K on FanDuel. Over on DraftKings, he and Beltre (146 wRC+, .230 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are the two bats below $4.5K, while Beltran is seeing the ball extremely well from the right side this season (179 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP) and may be the top overall bat. Shin-soo Choo has hit southpaws remarkably well in a small sample this year as well (212 wRC+, .361 ISO). Though that hasn't been the case historically, he does sit atop the top projected lineup tonight. Elvis Andrus has been surprisingly strong vs LHP this year (133 wRC+, .178 ISO) and is more than a viable SS for $2.8K on FanDuel.

Jorge de la Rosa (4.75 SIERA) is not a great pitcher with even less impressive control (10.1% BB%). It could just be an anomaly but de la Rosa has actually pitched better at Coors Field this season (50.5% GB%, 25.2% Hard%) than on the road. Given the overall pitching profile of de la Rosa, we should just chalk it up to small sample size and variance because he does not have the kind of stuff that typically plays well at Coors. The only positive thing to say about De La Rosa is that he gets above average ground balls (48.0%), but not at an elite enough level to cause a problem for guys like Giancarlo Stanton (150 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .316 ISO vs LHP) or Marcell Ozuna (191 wRC+, .458 wOBA, .363 ISO vs LHP). Martin Prado (196 wRC+, .466 wOBA) doesn't have a ton of power upside but has absolutely raked against left-handed pitching this season making him a nice filler in Miami stack.

If you think Yoenis Cespedes cannot hit left-handed pitching, you are stuck in 2015. Yes, in 2015, Cespedes finished the year with a wRC+ of 99 and an ISO of 0.216. However, in 2016, Cespedes has a wRC+ of 194 with an ISO of 0.297. Even further bolstering Cespedes improvement is his reduction in strike outs against LHPs, reducing his k rate in 2016 to 18% from 27% in 2015. Jorge De La Rosa is not a world beater, possessing an xFIP of 4.86 to RHBs, making Cespedes a well above average DFS play.

While de la Rosa (4.71 SIERA) has done a respectable job keeping the ball on the ground this season (48.3% GB%) and only allowed hard contact at a slightly above average rate overall (29.9%), he has not managed to have that same success against right-handed batters. Against righties, de la Rosa is only striking out 18.3% of batters, while surrendering 1.58 HR/9 and a 18.0% HR/FB rate. To make matters worse for de la Rosa, he has the envious task of facing the powerful Orioles lineup and the likes of: Manny Machado (141 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .222 ISO vs LHP), Jonathan Schoop (.193 ISO vs LHP), and Mark Trumbo (.305 ISO vs LHP). There is obviously a ton of variance in baseball from day-to-day, but this matchup does not set up well for de la Rosa. This is an elite spot for the Orioles righties making them strong plays in cash games and tournaments. Feel free to load up on a full stack that includes Chris Davis as he surrisingly hits LHP well (116 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .214 ISO since 2015) and may even get to face a righty or two later in the game when the Rockies are forced to call upon their horrendous bullpen.

De La Rosa is one of our top dollar per point targets of the day against a dreadful Braves lineup that ranks at or near the bottom of the league in all major categories against LHP. Atlanta is in the bottom two in wOBA (.280, 29th), ISO (.105, 30th), wRC+ (71, 29th) and wRAA (-37.4, 30th) against southpaws and they strike out at a decent clip (19.9%), giving De La Rosa a very nice shot to hit value at this price tag. He’s only a small favorite as of this writing and we don’t expect that to change much, but we really like his chance at the win and considering he’s going deeper into games as of late, he has legitimate 45-48 FP upside here. It certainly doesn't hurt that half of the Braves lineup (not including the pitcher) swings from the left side.