Jose Berrios Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

With both the top projected pitchers and values being some of the most expensive arms tonight, it’s really difficult to find a trustable arm for less than $10K tonight, specifically on FanDuel, where the top five projected values fills out with Mike Minor, Jose Berrios and Alex Cobb third through fifth. Minor has a great matchup against the Pirates (80w RC+, 26.4 K% vs LHP), but has just a 12.9 K% over his last five starts and is down to a 9.3 K-BB% for the season. He doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact (34.6%), but with just a 36.1 GB%, 8.6% of his contact have still been barrels and pitching in Cincinnati hasn’t helped with 20 of 26 barrels leaving the yard (15.3 HR/FB). His 5.70 ERA nearly matches his 5.75 FIP, though remaining estimators range all the way from a 4.75 SIERA to a 6.16 DRA. You’re not trusting him on a single pitcher site, but he does cost less than $7.5K on DraftKings, where you’ll need and SP2.

Berrios remains as volatile as ever with 15 of 23 strikeouts over his last six starts coming in back to back outings and two or fewer in three of them. With just a 20.3 K% (9.5 SwStr%), he’s allowed 50 barrels (10.9%) and 28 home runs (15.5 HR/FB). While most estimators are well below his 5.23 ERA (but still above four), it aligns fairly well with a 5.38 xERA that includes his contact profile. The Rays strike out a lot against RHP (24.1% with a 103 wRC+), but have smashed fastballs and especially curveballs (0.92 wCB/C) since the break, which is bad news for Berrios, considering that comprises more than 85% of his arsenal. He’s somehow only faced the Rays once this season, striking out just three. The volatility likely makes him a more interesting play than Minor, but again, maybe not someone you want to trust on a single pitcher site unless you’re extremely risk embracing.

The strikeouts have been a bit inconsistent, but Cobb’s 3.68 ERA is still above estimators ranging from a 2.91 xFIP to a 3.19 SIERA. It’s odd that you see those particular two bookending a pitcher, though it’s likely due to the 60.9 GB%. Cobb has a 17.2 K-BB%, while allowed just 4.0% Barrels/BBE with a 29.8 Z-O-Swing%. You can probably say that Cobb has been less volatile than Berrios at least, but his matchup is highly volatile. The Braves have a 105 wRC+, 25.3 K% and 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP and Cobb is the most expensive of the three pitchers ($8K DK, $9K FD).

Either Jon Gray ($8.8K) or Braxton Garrett ($7.1K) could be options (only available on DraftKings) in a great park if they weren’t both returning from the IL with a combined 30 batters faced in rehab starts. Both will likely be limited after four week plus absences and the Rangers have been quite good against LHP (117 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 16.7 HR/FB).

Tyler Anderson is the only other name that comes to mind, but he’s not all that cheap ($8K+) and your paying for workload and contact management(84.9 mph EV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE, 29.1% 95+ mph EV) , rather than strikeouts (15.4 K% last 14 starts), which is always a riskier proposition. The changeup (32.1%, -1.7 RV/100, 37 Whiff%) and cutter (22%, -1.1 RV/100, wOBA and xwOBA below .275) have been weapons, but are also two pitches the Diamondbacks have pulverized since the break (1.93 wCH/C, 1.4 wFC/C). The Diamondbacks may have just a 909 wRC+ and 23.3 K% vs LHP, but have some young exciting bats in the lineup these days.

This slate is loaded with pitchers who have traditionally been workhorses, but have not been this season, due to both the shorter spring ramp up and early performance issues. As such, many of these pitchers are priced below $10K on FD or even $9K on DK tonight. Framber Valdez, Jose Berrios and Walker Buehler are all pitchers we generally expect to get six or even seven innings out of, a rarity in this day and age. Valdez has generated less than two-thirds of his contact on the ground just once over his last 11 starts and has been above 73% in all three this year. He has not allowed a home run, nor even a barrel yet. That’s where the good news ends because he’s struck out (12) only two more than he’s walked (10), generating just a 3.3 K-BB%. He’s failed to compete five innings in any of his last two starts with the 84 pitches he threw in his first start still standing as his season high. He’s thrown a first pitch strike in just over half his battles this season (51.6%), which is a pretty awful number. He is currently a top five projected pitcher on DraftKings in Texas (PlateIQ), but with very low ownership expectations, which could make him a great GPP play if he could rediscover the strike zone.

After two disastrous starts (vs Tex, at NYY), Berrios finally got on track in Boston last time out (6 IP – 28 BF – 1 R – 1 BB – 6 K), though his 93.7 mph EV in that game was still his lowest mark of the season. With an average 94.1 mph EV, he’s already allowed seven barrels (17.5%) with good fortune that just three of them have left the yard. He has just five more ground balls than barrels and had just a 7.3 SwStr% against Boston. His four-seamer and sinker both still have a wOBA and xwOBA above .500. There are still some concerns here and seeing the same lineup for a second consecutive start generally favors the offense. That said, Berrios owns a top three projection on FanDuel with a very moderate ownership projection against an offense with an 80 wRC+ vs RHP. Berrios costs an absurd $5.5K on DraftKings. He’s currently projected to be the top point per dollar value on either site, costing less than $8K on FanDuel as well.

Buehler hasn’t completed six innings yet with just a 16.2 K% (but 12.2 SwStr%) and a 4.02 ERA that’s a half run below his estimators. Add in the contact profile and Statcast spits out a 5.66 xERA. He hit 98 pitches in his second start, but was pulled before 80 in each of his other two. He’s also dropped about a mile per hour in velocity each of the last two seasons now and for a guy who throws his fastball (four-seam, cutter, sinker) two-thirds of the time, that’s potentially problematic, though pitchers have done more with less and it’s been written that he’s constantly tinkering, so we’ll see how he adjusts. Last season started a bit less than ideally as well and he is in a very favorable spot in Arizona last night (75 wRC+ at home), against a lineup that should have a lot of strikeouts in it. Buehler is only a top five projected pitcher on FD currently.

Kyle Gibson’s getting nearly double the rate of swings and misses on his sinker and changeup from last year and nothing really looks different about them, so perhaps we can chalk this up to young hitter over-aggression early in the season. More expectedly, half his contact has been on the ground. All estimators are currently more than half a run below his 3.57 ERA (66.3 LOB%). He faces the Rockies (106 wRC+ on the road so far) in a hitter friendly park, but it’s not Coors. He projects as the second best DK value, the only site he’s available on. Nathan Eovaldi is the second best projected value on FD. He didn’t allow his fifth home run until July in 2021. This year, it took him just three starts. The good news is a 24.6 K-BB%. The bad, obviously, is in the contact profile. A 33.3 HR/FB pace won’t sustain, but a 92.8 mph EV and 14.3% Barrels/BBE are far off from his contact management last year (88 mph EV). An xERA of 4.58 is two runs above his SIERA (2.56) so far with his ERA (3.68) sitting in the middle. He was unable to complete five innings despite 95 pitches against these Blue Jays last time out, although he only allowed a solo home run. Michael Lorenzen is the only pitcher outside Sam Long today with fewer than three. After striking out seven of 20 Marlins over six dominant innings (two hits, one run), it went a bit more roughly in Houston, where he struck out just two of 17 Astros with as many walks and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning. A 56 GB% is impressive and 11.3 SwStr% more than competent, but we’ll see how he continues to fare with reduced velocity (about a mile and a half so far) in a starting role. He does cost just $6.3K on DK against the Guardians tonight.

Jose Berrios has a 33.9 K% over his last five starts and has allowed just seven runs over 22.2 innings over his last four. To illustrate how poorly he started, he still has a 4.40 ERA, which is now finally within half a run of all of his estimators, though if he keeps pitching like this, of course, all numbers will improve. The 27.1 K% is now a career high for Berrios, who has had both his worst and second best starts of the season against the White Sox this year. The White Sox have a 112 wRC+ and 19.1 HR/FB vs RHP (23.4 HR/FB at home). They do offer some strikeout upside though (25.2 K% vs RHP). It’s not ideal, but with Kershaw and Lamet facing each other, none of the top pitchers on this three game slate have favorable matchups. This may actually be the best of the three. Berrios doesn’t have much of a split with batters from either side of the plate within six points of a .300 wOBA against him since last season. Make no mistake, this is a dangerous lineup he faces, but at $9.2K, Berrios is $1K less than the top two pitchers on FanDuel and may be the top value on the board.

Temperatures are expected to be over 30 degrees cooler in New York than Atlanta today and while there appears to be a strong wind, it seems to be blowing across the field, according to weather edge. This still may be the game players want to target for offense tonight. Jose Berrios has both the second lowest strikeout rate (23.2%) and aEV (86.5 mph) on the board today. His 3.68 ERA and 3.85 FIP are quality marks as well, but his 4.44 DRA is actually worst on the board. And while it’s still a better than average mark, his .303 xwOBA is also just one of two above .300 today. In fact, batters from either side of the plate had a .303 xwOBA against him this year with an actual wOBA within three points. Though he seemed to straighten himself out in September (two runs or less in three of his last four starts), Berrios did allow at least three runs in each of his previous six starts. This Yankee lineup is completely stacked. Virtually anyone in it could bat third or eighth. Among those projected, only Didi Gregorius (83 wRC+, .187 ISO) was below a 118 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Giancarlo Stanton (.156) and DJ LeMahieu (.166) along with Gregorius were below a .200 ISO against RHP this year.

James Paxton gets the ball for the Yankees to start this series. He had an amazing September (1.05 ERA, 2.20 FIP, .245 xwOBA, 30.6 K%), but he also left his last start of the season after a single inning due to glute tightness. He calls it a non-issue and could have amazing upside for just $6.9K in this spot, but the Twins had a 126 wRC+ vs LHP that’s the highest split on the board today. Paxton at less than 100% could be a problem here. The projected lineup for the Twins features four batters above a .400 wOBA and .300 ISO vs LHP this year, all with more than 120 PAs: Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron. Beware that the Yankees do have an abundance of quality right-handers they can bring out of the pen if need be here, but these Twins bats were also very strong against RHP as well.

With so many great pitching options on this slate, Jose Berrios could potentially be overlooked despite having a lot of factors in his favor tonight at home vs. the Royals. Berrios has always been a much better pitcher in home starts: he has a 3.51 ERA / 3.23 FIP, 18.2% K-BB and .294 xwOBA in home starts, compared to a 4.85 ERA / 4.99 FIP, 12.5% K-BB and .320 xwOBA allowed in road starts over his career. The Royals have just a .297 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past month, and have just an 84 wRC+ and 22.7% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Royals have just a 3.39 implied total and the Twins are -350 favorites to win, so Berrios has a very good chance of getting the ‘W’ bonus. Berrios also will be working with a pitcher friendly umpire in Jim Wolf and a plus pitch-framer in Jason Castro. Though there are plenty of SPs to choose from tonight, it’s worth getting at least some exposure to Berrios tonight if you are playing multiple lineups given the great spot that he’s in.

Jose Berrios has an above average 16.7 K-BB%, but the majority of his success has been predicated on an 86.6 mph aEV that’s best on the board tonight. His 6.4% Barrels/BBE is third best. While his non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.63 ERA due to a 12.1 HR/FB and 12 of his 85 runs being unearned, he just snapped a streak of six straight starts with at least three ERs allowed when he shut out the Nationals for seven innings with four strikeouts last time out. He’s faced the White Sox three times over his last eight starts with four of the 12 runs he’s allowed against them unearned over 20.1 innings with three HRs. The good news is that he’s struck out 21 of the 86 White Sox he’s faced. It’s certainly a high upside matchup with the White Sox owning an 84 wRC+ and 19.7 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Berrios has more value on FanDuel, where he costs a reasonable $8.5K, as opposed to $10.2K on DraftKings.