Jose Fernandez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Nationals are just trying to stay healthy as they coast to the post-season. A number of bats are resting tonight, the most prominent of which is Daniel Murphy. Jose Fernandez has a 37.3 K% at home this season (29.9 K-BB%). and was already the top overall arm on the board, but Murphy's absence gives him a further boost because LHBs have given him some trouble this season (36.3 Hard%). You might struggle to call the Nationals (95 wRC+ vs RHP) an average offense against righties even with Murphy, but despite a couple of recent starts where he's struggled on the road, the upside in Fernandez's arm is likely worth paying up for tonight in a favorable matchup at home.

Jose Fernandez was coming off his worst start of the season in Cleveland and in what could have been a tough spot at home against the powerful LHBs of the Dodgers, he promptly struck out 14 of 27 batters. That kind of potential (at least 13 Ks five times this season) is why he’s probably the top guy every time he takes the mound and easily the top guy tonight. He has the top strikeout rate in baseball (34.9%). He has the top strikeout rate since Randy Johnson in 2001. The Braves have been better (105 team wRC+ is fourth best since the All-Star break) and don’t strike out much (19.1% on the road and vs RHP), but he can drop nearly 10 points off his K% and still project as the top arm tonight. Fernandez has struggled with LHBs though (.319 wOBA, 35.4 Hard%), so rostering either Freeman (155 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2015) with two HRs in 21 PAs against Fernandez for $4K on DraftKings or even Markakis (115 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), who has a 213 wRC+ over the last week and one HR in 11 PAs against Fernandez for $2.7K on FanDuel might be a justifiable contrarian approach. However, after the two scratches tonight, cash game players should really be paying up for Fernandez. There are really no other options. For GPP players, our Projected Ownership page has him above 40% on either site.

Jose Fernandez has struck out just 11 of his last 55 batters and just 25.5% of batters over the last month. The good news is that four of his last six starts have been on the road and he’s been a better pitcher at home (27.0 K-BB% since last season). He has not struck out fewer than six in any home start this year and only that twice. The Dodgers come to town and they’ve been mashing RHP recently and now have a 109 wRC+, 15.9 HR/FB and 34.5 Hard% against them, which are pretty close to what LHBs have done against Fernandez this season (15.8 HR/FB, 36.9 Hard%). Putting our faith in what Fernandez has previously established as one of the best pitchers in baseball is probably the correct way to go more often than not and he still may be tonight's top overall arm, but players should consider his issues with LHBs when paying up for him. In fact, after Utley, there is not a single batter in the lineup until the pitcher with a wRC+ below 130 and only Reddick has an ISO below .194 against RHP this season. In fact, for those not on board with Fernandez, at severely depressed price points (everyone except Seager is $3.6K or less on either site), a Dodger stack might be an acceptably contrarian approach tonight. Yasmani Grandal's cost (below $3K on either site) appears a bit low even for this matchup with a 135 wRC+ and .277 ISO vs RHP this season.

Jose Fernandez doesn't need much help, but he has struggled a bit vs LHBs (.319 wOBA, 34.3 Hard% since last season), so it does help a bit that two of the Mets more competent LHBs recently (Walker and Cabrera) are out with injuries, along with the struggling Jay Bruce. Among the five remaining ones, James Loney leads them with a 103 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Granderson (.212 ISO) has an ISO above .140. Don't overthink this. Jose Fernandez leads baseball with a 35.4 K% this season (Mets strike out 22% vs RHP) and is tonight's top arm by a wide margin.

Jose Fernandez got knocked for five runs for the second time in five starts with the silver lining being that he finished with a clean innings, striking out the last two batters before Mattingly removed him after 65 pitches. Let's hope that's not the start of a trend. His hard contact rate is now up to 31.7% on the season and LHBs do have a .321 wOBA with a 34.4 Hard% against him since returning from Tommy John surgery last year, but he's still missing more bats than any other pitcher in baseball (35.6 K%) and is in a great spot at home against the worst road offense in baseball (78 wRC+). The Royals also have an 83 wRC+ against RHP with a 9.2 HR/FB and no single batter in tonight's lineup with an ISO above .200 against righties this year. Fernandez is probably tonight's top pitcher. The Royals are the only team projected for less than three runs tonight, half a run lower than the next lowest team.

Jose Fernandez is tonight's top pitcher, which is usually the case when he takes the mound. His last start was skipped and he hasn’t pitched in 10 days, but that’s fine by us if that’s the way they’re going to shave his innings this season because he’s been regularly throwing 100 or more pitches in recent starts. We can be further encouraged by the fact that the Marlins are in a Wild Card race where every game matters. While his strikeouts have dropped slightly in his last few starts, his 15.7 SwStr% over the last month is even higher. His 35.7 K% still leads baseball by nearly three points. The Reds have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and sit both Cozart and Duvall (who missed yesterday as well), which doesn't necessarily give Fernandez much of a bump because he dominates RHBs anyway (.223 wOBA since last year). LHBs have a bit of a chance against him (.318 wRC+, 33.7 Hard% since 2015), which makes Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP since 2015) a potentially viable contrarian play. He has a 223 wRC+ and 60.0 Hard% over the last week without much of a price reduction in this spot, but players may want to check out our new Projected Ownership page once it updates to how Votto rates later.

As he is on most night's he takes the mound, Jose Fernandez, the major league leader in strikeout rate (36.4%), is the top dog tonight. While he does have a 29.0 LD% that's led to a .331 BABIP and occasionally a few runs, he's allowed more than two earned in just four of his last 15 starts and rarely exits without at least seven or eight strikeouts. The Giants may pose more of a threat than usual to his enormous strikeout rate (17.2 K% vs RHP), but even if they drop him five to 10 points, it's still an exceptional rate and they have struck out 22.9% of the time over the last week. With a high floor and incredible ceiling that no other pitcher on the slate can match, this is a pitcher players should look to build around tonight. The Giants have a slate low projection of just 2.9 runs with only one other team within half a run. One contrarian consideration on the other side might be Brandon Belt (140 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015). He costs just $3.4K or less out of the third spot with a 192 wRC+ and 58.3 Hard% over the last week. LHBs have a .319 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% against Fernandez since last season.

Jose Fernandez has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball since Kershaw went down. He leads the majors with a 36.8 K% by 3.9 points over Kershaw and has dropped his BB% below average. His hard contact rate (31.6%) isn’t as low as you might expect, but even when he’s allowed some runs, he’s still generating enough strikeouts to form a high floor. He’s struck out less than seven in just three starts and no fewer than five in any. The Cubs could challenge his pitch count with a 10.3 BB% vs RHP, but they also strike out 22.6% of the time vs RHP. The second priced pitcher on either site, Fernandez is always a top play with as much or more upside than any pitcher on the board and looks even better against this lineup with Kris Bryant out. LHBs have been able to touch him up a bit with a .318 wOBA and 34.6 Hard% since last season though. Players not on Fernandez might actually consider Anthony Rizzo (167 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP this season) and or Ben Zobrist (130 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP this season) at a slightly reduced cost tonight. There are actually several teams projected for fewer than their 3.5 runs tonight.

Jose Fernandez is the top pitcher and possibly even the top value at the highest price on a strong pitching slate. He’s sent down at least seven and usually more in 14 of his last 15 starts, missing by a single strikeout once. His control has improved as the season’s gone on to where he now has a 29.4 K-BB% just behind Kershaw for the major league lead. The Cardinals are the top road offense in baseball and second best vs RHP with a 14+ HR/FB in each spot. It’s not a great spot, but they have a 24.8 K% and have struggled offensively over the last week having played double-headers and long extra-inning games, which could improve this spot for Fernandez beyond what most of the numbers say. Players should probably attempt to do whatever they can to fit him in lineups, as is the case almost any time he's on the mound. LHBs have a .315 wOBA and 34.5 Hard% against him since last season, so players who want to go low cost contrarian might consider Matt Adams (114 wRC+. .242 ISO vs RHP this season) at $2.7K on either site, but this is not a power friendly park and he has to make contact to do any damage. Cardinal batters are not recommended tonight. They are the only offense projected for less than three runs tonight (2.85).