Jose Martinez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

The Cards get a juicy matchup with the Rangers on a warm day in Arlington where the ball should really be carrying Sunday afternoon. They’ll face Drew Smyly, who has had a miserable start to the year but somehow still has a rotation spot. Smyly has a 6.85 ERA / 5.42 xFIP / 5.03 with an ugly 14.2% BB rate, 56.5% hard contact rate and just a 26.1% GB rate. Smyly also has a .380 xwOBA allowed with a 90.5 aEV and 10.1% barrel rate. Once Smyly is chased from the game, Cardinals’ hitters will face a Texas bullpen that has a 3rd worst 5.02 xFIP on the year. Cardinals projected top 6 batters in order: Matt Carpenter (.370 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Paul Goldschmidt (.411), Paul Dejong (.318), Marcell Ozuna (.396), Jose Martinez (.416), Yadi Molina (.365). Jose Martinez (.457 xwOBA over the past 14 days) Dexter Fowler (.424) and Paul Dejong (.406) have been the Cardinals’ hottest hitters. All projected Cardinals starters with the exception of Kolten Wong, have an xwOBA > .310 over the past 14 days. St. Louis has a 6.02 implied line vs. Smyly and the Rangers in Arlington this afternoon.

The Cardinals are in Arlington tonight to face the Rangers, who project to use Jose Leclerc as an opener and then likely Adrian Sampson in long relief. Sampson has nothing in his profile that suggests he’s any good; for his career he has a 5.09 ERA / 5.97 xFIP / 5.14 SIERA with an 8.7 K-BB%. In 2019 Sampson has a 47.5% hard contact rate, just a 36.4% GB rate, a .398 xwOBA allowed and a 12.3% barrel rate. Sampson doesn’t figure to last long in this game, and the Rangers terrible bullpen (5.00 xFIP, 7.8 K-BB% in 2019) gives Cardinals batters even more upside. St. Louis has been hot with the 3rd best xwOBA of any team over the past 10 days (.371). Matt Carpenter (129 wRC+, .248 ISO vs. RHP since 2018), Paul Goldschmidt (138 wRC+, .226 ISO), Paul Dejong (123 wRC+, .209 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (103 wRC+, .172 ISO) and (Jose Martinez (125 wRC+, .140 ISO) project to be the top 5 batters for STL, in that order. Jose Martinez has been the Cards’ hottest hitter with a .460 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Matt Carpenter (.372) has seen the ball well after a rough start to 2019 and might be the best value in the lineup, projected to hit leadoff at just $4k on Draftkings. The Cardinals have a whopping 6.32 implied total vs. the Rangers in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park tonight.

Jason Vargas has been horrid this year with a .440 xwOBA allowed, a 14.21 ERA, 8.17 xFIP and 63.3% hard contact rate allowed. Vargas recorded just one out in his last start, is averaging just 84.7 MPH on his fastball and flat out doesn’t look deserves to be in an MLB starting rotation. The Cardinals have a 4.93 implied total tonight which seems somewhat low given the matchup. Paul Goldschmidt (.411 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Marcell Ozuna (.395), Jose Martinez (.388), Matt Carpenter (.369), Yadier Molina (.365) have all mashed LHP and are great options tonight vs. Vargas. Paul Dejong (.290) has not seen great success vs. LHP but nonetheless is a fine option batting 3rd in a stacked Cardinals order. Jose Martinez and Yadi Molina stand out as the best value plays as the only batters in the STL lineup under $4k on Draftkings. Marcell Ozuna is the hottest hitter in the lineup with a .570 xwOBA over the past 7 days.