Jose Suarez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The lack of high priced pitching on a small Monday night slate gives us a larger middle of the board with most of tonight’s arms in the $7-8K range, but one of the better projected values on FanDuel costs less than $7K ($400 less than his DraftKings price). It’s not often we’d consider a pitcher costing this little on a single pitcher site, but the matchup really forces our hand here. Jose Suarez has completed six innings just once this season and that was in one of his two relief appearances. He’s struck out batters at an average rate (21.5%) with an impressive 12.1 SwStr%, but also walked them at a double digit rate (10.1%) with 10.8% Barrels/BBE. The result has been that all estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.55 ERA. The Athletics have just a 7.6 HR/FB (76 wRC+) at home and 86 wRC+ with a 22.3 K% vs LHP this season. Considering the middle of the board strikeout rate and power suppressing park, Suarez projects as tonight’s second best FanDuel value, though more middle of the board on DraftKings.

Another pitcher in the same mold, but more extreme in both strikeout rate and barrels allowed, is Yusei Kikuchi. He has competently struck out 10 of 35 Rays and Tigers since returning from the IL, allowing just three runs over nine innings. Whether due to previous ailments or some other reason, he’s developed a bit of a control problem this season (13.0 BB%), but has walked just two over these last two starts. He misses enough bats (25.5 K%), but the other issue is the same as it’s been the last few years…too many bombs. He’s allowed 15 home runs (20.3 HR/FB) on 30 barrels (15.3%) and has completed six innings just three times all year. The result is that his 4.86 ERA is about a half run above contact neutral estimators and more than that below contact inclusive ones. On a positive note, his best two pitches have been his changeup (14.3%, -2.2 RV/100, 39.6 Whiff%) and four-seam (51.6%, 0.4 RV/100, 26.8 Whiff%), which are two pitches the Orioles have performed the worst against (-0.26 wCH/C, -0.23 wFC/C). The Orioles, despite a predominantly right-handed lineup, also have just a 92 wRC+ with a board high split 25.4 K% vs LHP. Kikuchi is a top five value on either site for $7.7K or less. To illustrate how pitcher friendly Oakland is and Baltimore has become, the pitchers opposing Suarez and Kikuchi (Cole Irvin and Jordan Lyles) have allowed a combined 29 home runs this year, but only one each at home.

Zac Gallen has just two starts over his last 14 with at least six innings pitched and more than five strikeouts. He’s been fine (16.6 K-BB%), but just not really going deep into games with very many strikeouts all that often. His 3.31 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.49 DRA to a 3.84 xFIP because four of his 45 runs have been unearned and batters have just a .249 BABIP against him. However, he gets to face the Pirates tonight (78 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% on the road, 85 wRC+, 25.0 K% vs RHP). Gallen is the fifth best projected FanDuel value for $9.6K, but the second best projected DraftKings value for less than $8K.

Basically, Jameson Taillon does everything else about average (20.8 K%, 88.2 mph EV, 7.5% Barrels/BBE, 39.9 GB%), while barely walking anyone (4.4%). His 3.96 ERA aligns within one-fifth of a run of all his estimators. However, with the exception of three straight starts of at least seven innings that started at the end of May, he’s only completed six innings three other times and never more. He costs just $7.7K on DraftKings and slots into your SP2 spot fine in a tough matchup (Mariners 103 wRC+, 21.2 K%), but a substantial park upgrade.

Lastly, neither Jordan Lyles (19.0 K%), nor Cole Irvin (17.0 K%) have much strikeout upside, both have been able to pitch a lot of innings due to their power suppressing home parks. Although, Irvin’s cost might be a bit high for a guy who’s only struck out more than four on four occasions, even if he does have six straight Quality Starts and is facing the Angels (84 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs LHP).

Jose Suarez has stopped missing bats (11.6 K% last 31.1 innings) and has the highest xwOBA on the board over the last month (.408). Zach Plesac, incidentally, has the second highest (.402) in the other dugout tonight. On the season, RHBs have now punished him for a .419 wOBA with Statcast only marginally better (.376 xwOBA). The Tribe are the lowest of nine teams above five implied runs tonight (5.05) and they might be getting short changed in this spot. This projected lineup boasts four RHBs above a 115 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP this year, led by Carlos Santana (159 wRC+, .235 ISO) and Jordan Luplow (168 wRC+, .345 ISO). Roberto Perez (116 wRC+, .243 ISO) is an interesting punt Catcher play and Franmil Reyes (116 wRC+, .233 ISO) is generally all or nothing. Although it’s their worse split, Francisco Lindor (108 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Yasiel Puig (92 wRC+, .158 ISO) are certainly viable in this spot too.

Jose Suarez has had a rough time so far in his rookie year as he has a 6.57 ERA over 49 and 1/3 innings pitched. However, he does have a 4.91 SIERA, 12.7% K-BB, 11.7% SwStr, .330 xwOBA allowed and 86.4 MPH aEV which all show that he probably hasn’t been nearly as bad as his ERA suggests. Suarez gets a matchup vs. the White Sox tonight who do have a respectable 101 wRC+, but that comes with the highest BABIP vs. LHP in the league (.342) that suggests they’ve been a bit lucky. By xwOBA, the White Sox have been the 5th worst vs. LHP with a .302 mark on the year. Suarez’s price is what makes him most intriguing, as he is a dirt cheap $4.9k on Draftkings and not much more on Fanduel at $5.8k, creating room for some of the higher priced bats on the slate. He projects as by far the best PTS/$ arm on the slate. Suarez will have the added benefit of an extremely pitcher friendly umpire calling balls and strikes in Doug Eddings. He also projects to have Max Stassi behind the plate, one of the better pitch framers in baseball. Currently, the White Sox have just a 4.40 implied total vs. Suarez and the Angels for tonight.

Adam Plutko has excellent control (3.1 BB%) and probably should have a few more strikeouts (1.73 K/SwStr, 9.1 SwStr%), but has the highest Z-O-Swing% on the board (42.8%) and an unsustainable .229 BABIP. A 31 GB% plays a big part in generating 8.2% Barrels/BBE despite just 30.4% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. A .305 xwOBA is still 30 points better than his actual mark though. To sum, Statcast suggests a decent contact manager (despite 14 HRs in 48.2 innings) with great control who should get a few more strikeouts if he can get batters to chase out of the zone occasionally. He’s allowed two runs in 11 innings to the Royals this season, striking out seven. Kansas City has very little power (11.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a power suppressing park, which should give Plukto the boost he needs to generate some value at a cost around $7K tonight on a slate with very little middle of the board pitching.

Jose Suarez is another mid-range option that should get a lot of play tonight, simply because he’s facing the Orioles (86 wRC+, 20.4 K-BB%, 10.6 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). He has a 25.2 K% through seven starts, but has failed to complete five innings or go beyond 20 batters in any of his last three in July. While his 86 mph aEV is tied for best on the board, a 28.3 GB% has still resulted in 8.6% Barrels/BBE.