Joseph Biagini Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Rockies have a 6.58 implied run line that's more than a run above any other team tonight. While their 82 wRC+ against RHP is not encouraging, neither is Johnny Cueto's 8% Barrels/BBE with a hard hit rate above 32% to batters from either side of the plate this season. Of course, Charlie Blackmon (153 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP), but also any competent hitter against RHP from either side of the plate is in play here, including Nolan Arenado (97 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Mark Reynolds (117 wRC+, .246 ISO). Seven more teams on a 12 game slate are between 4.84 and 5.63 runs tonight, including the visiting team at Coors tonight, the Giants at 5.42 runs (third). Kyle Freeland has had an odd and unpredictable rookie season. He's gone no more than six innings since the break and only that many three times despite increase in strikeout rate (22.1% over the last month). His GB rate is only 40% with 41.3 Hard% over that span. LHBs have a .284 wOBA, 26.9% K-BB%, 21.4 GB% and 41.2 Hard% over that span. RHBs have a .386 wOBA, 4.3 K-BB%, 46.7 GB%, 41.3 Hard%. How that pertains to figuring out which San Francisco Giants might be useful tonight is a great question. The Boston Red Sox are sandwiched in between the two with an implied run line of 5.63, though there are some reasons for caution here. Opposing pitcher Joe Biagini struck out 10 in his last outing and despite some struggles, does have a 57.7 GB% this year. The weather forecast is not very optimistic about conditions in Boston today either. Cleveland is projected for 5.35 runs and has a team 153 wRC+ that leads the majors over the last week. Reynaldo Lopez has some talent and a 22.5 K% through 60 major league innings, but in his first three starts this year (16 innings), he has a slate high 91.2 mph aEV (tied with Andrew Moore) and 11.6% Barrels/BBE.

Arizona and Washington are each tied for second with a 121 sOPS+ against ground ball pitching, significant because both are facing good ground ball pitchers tonight. The Nationals face Jake Arrieta, who's 17.8 K-BB% suggests he's been better than his 4.36 ERA, but may be tough to trust in this matchup. Carlos Martinez (27.8 K%, 2.87 ERA, 3.68 SIERA) has been better, but Arizona's success against ground ball pitchers in a difficult park could provide reason for caution. One reason for that success is Paul Goldschmidt, who has raised his fly ball rate 10 points this year, but may just be bouncing back from a 28.8 FB% last season. He leads the team with a 236 sOPS+, but just four HRs against ground ballers this season. On the other end of the spectrum, Baltimore (83 sOPS+) and Miami (79 sOPS+) have been bottom five offenses vs GB pitchers. Joe Biagini has struggled a bit in recent starts, but is very cheap on DraftKings, facing a Baltimore offense with a 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP too. Robert Gsellman has gotten tattooed in two straight starts (14 ERs - 9.1 IP) and hasn't been much better against the Marlins in three starts (14.2 IP - 14 R - 10 ER - 4 HR - 5 BB - 14 K).

The Friday appears to be lacking in top end arms. Corey Kluber announced his return from a month long DL sting with authority by striking out 10 of 20 Athletics, but even he may be on a slightly restricted pitch count (77 pitches eight days ago) and your only other $8.5K+ arm is Ervin Santana, who backs his 2.44 ERA with a 4.93 SIERA, .153 BABIP, 87.7 LOB% and 8.3 K-BB%. The good news is that there are several young upstarts and relievers turned starters with potential low cost upside on the mound, albeit while working with small sample sizes. Let's start with Joe Biagini, who has excelled in six starts, posting a 15.1 K-BB%, 63.8 GB% and 25.8 Hard%. That’s a top of the rotation profile. Over his last two starts, he’s struck out 13 of 54 batters in 13 innings with a 65.8 GB% and 0.0 Hard-Soft% against the Yankees and Rangers. Whether Nelson Cruz returns tonight or not, Biagini has put himself in a position of value at a cost remaining less than $7K. Brad Peacock has a longer track record of mediocrity that's harder to shake, but he was somewhat of a prospect once upon a time. He's struck out 25 of 59 batters in a starting role, walking just four and completing six innings his last time out against non-cream puff offenses in Detroit, Minnesota and Texas. His 12.0 SwStr% over this span projects not as optimally, but he could lose two touchdowns off that strikeout rate and still be useful for less than $8K against the Trout-less Angels. Randall Delgado is another one time prospect, who has had an easier run (@ Miami, @ Pittsburgh, vs Chicago AL), but a 13.0 SwStr% and -5.0 Hard-Soft%, striking out 15 of 57 major league batters is impressive at this level no matter who it's against. He steps up in class at home against a powerful Milwaukee lineup tonight, but might even see a boost to his strikeout rate in this matchup for less than $7K.

Joe Biagini is set to make his fifth start since beginning his transition from the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen to their starting rotation as he takes on the Texas Rangers at home this afternoon. Biagini is priced at a huge discount across the industry, especially on DraftKings at $4.8K, and could be the key to paying up for some of the expensive bats in plus matchups on today's slate. The primary concern with Biagini is his pitch count, as he has yet to eclipse 77 pitches in any of his previous five outings, but has progressively increased his pitch count in recent starts and could realistically approach 90 pitches if he is pitching well this afternoon. Biagini does have a below-average 18.1% strikeout rate to right-handed batters in his career, though that issue should be neutralized by the fact two of the four righties in the Rangers lineup whiff at rates greater that 28.5% (Mike Napoli and Ryan Rua), but his 25.0% strikeout versus left-handed batters is well above-average, especially for a right-handed pitcher. He has also been able to limit lefties to a 26.8% hard hit rate while keeping the ball on the ground 59.2% of the time and is complemented by a 51.9% groundball rate and elite 21.7% hard hit rate versus righties. The aforementioned stats indicate that Biagini should be the beneficiary of much better results than he has been seeing. This is largely due to a low 60.8% LOB%, a luck metric that should typically stabilize around 70-75% over time. While the pitch count is a concern, Biagini has the advanced metrics and right matchup to put up a tournament-winning score for his price tag on Sunday's main slate.

Joe Biagini set to make just his fourth start of the season as he takes on a boom-or-bust Milwaukee Brewers lineup on the road tonight. Biagini will be looking to bounce back after being roughed up in his previous start against the Atlanta Braves, allowing six runs, five of them earned, in just four innings pitched. The good news is the Biagini's skills he exhibited in bullpen held up well through his first two starts, pitching a combined nine scoreless innings. Most pitchers moving from the bullpen to the rotation will typically see some sort of regression to their advanced stats, but a 22.0% strikeout rate, 4.1% walk rate, and 56.8% groundball rate are extremely appealing at his minuscule $4.6K salary on DraftKings this evening. The one drawback with Biagini is that his innings are likely to be limited once again after throwing just 52, 68, and 67 pitches in his first three starts. However, if he can work his way through five or six innings, that should be plenty to pay off his ridiculously low salary. While innings are an obvious risk for Biagini, the matchup with a Brewers squad that ranks third in ISO against right-handed pitching and third-worst in strikeout rate is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward tournament play. However, Biagini's groundball ability should help counteract the Brewers power to some extent and puts him in perfect position to be paired with likes of Clayton Kershaw as an SP2 in tournaments while still being able to afford some quality bats.

Despite the game in Coors tonight, Corey Seager (157 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP career) is the only batter from that game to crack the top six overall hitters according to tonight's RotoGrinders Player Projections, which have Bryce Harper (169 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP since 2015) leading all players on each site. He faces the rookie Nick Pivetta at home tonight. Despite a league average strikeout rate through two starts, Pivetta has allowed a ton of hard contact (45.7 Hard-Soft% with a 91.2 mph aEV and four HRs). From a value standpoint, David Peralta (131 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.9K on FanDuel and usually bats second for the offense with the second highest projected run total tonight (5.37), while DraftKings likes a couple of sub-$3K bats near the top of the order (Ezequiel Carrera and Joey Rickard), along with Mitch Moreland ($3.4K) all for 2.3 Pt/$/K or better. Clayton Kershaw is still the top projected arm on the slate, even at Coors, but Joe Bagini could be a viable SP2. The converted reliever struck out four of 15 batters in his first start and is only projected to throw around 70 pitches tonight. In 90.1 major league innings (86 out of the pen), he has a 21.8 K%, he also has a 54.2 GB% and 23.0 Hard%. He still sat around 94 mph in his start and already has a multi-pitch repertoire, costing just $4.9K on DraftKings, facing a Seattle lineup without Robinson Cano. The projections have him at 2.91 Pt/$/K. FanDuel has Kershaw as the top value (4.45 Pt/$/K) as well as the top overall arm at a cost below $10K tonight.