Josh Tomlin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Generally a pitcher with a reverse platoon split, Josh Tomlin has still allowed a .346 wOBA to RHBs with an xwOBA 35 points higher, but LHBs are above a .460 xwOBA and xwOBA. We can't exactly call it a small sample anymore either at 59.2 innings. The White Sox are just in the middle of the board at 4.15 implied runs, but players have to seriously look at all four LHBs in their lineup, all above average hitters against RHP this year: Yoan Moncada (105 wRC+, .189 ISO), Yolmer Sanchez (104 wRC+, .159 ISO), Daniel Palka (125 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Omar Narvaez (133 wRC+, .172 ISO).

The Detroit Tigers have just a 4.44 implied run line and not a lot of bats many people often think about in terms of daily fantasy value, but they are facing one of the hardest hit pitchers on the board tonight. Josh Tomlin has a board high .477 xwOBA and 13.5% Barrels/BBE with a 90.5 mph aEV with just an 11% strikeout rate. Nick Castellanos (107 wRC+, .194 ISO) and John Hicks (102 wRC+, .183 ISO) are the only two even average hitters against RHP over the last calendar year, but that fits perfectly with Tomlin's failure against same-handed batters (.349 wOBA, .373 xwOBA, 35.5 Hard%, 36.4 GB% since last season). Niko Goodrum (94 wRC+, .224 ISO) has a 329 wRC+ with three HRs (17 PAs) over the last seven days. Tigers are cheap with only Castellanos reaching above $3.4K on either site.

The Yankees have a 6.11 implied run line that's tops on the board by more than three quarters of a run. Josh Tomlin has gotten tattooed for a .459 xwOBA that's somehow only second worst on the board. Not all of his contact is exceptionally hard (88.6 mph aEV) and his 9.2 SwStr% certainly projects a better strikeout rate than his 10.5% this season and his 12.8% Barrels/BBE is indicative of a pitcher who often struggles with hard contact in the air when it all falls apart. While he has a career reverse platoon split, which is absolute death against this lineup, his xwOBA is above .360 for batters from either side of the plate with a ground ball rate below 40% since 2017. Gleybor Torres (95 wRC+, .103 ISO) is the weakest link in this lineup against RHP since last season. Additionally, only Brett Gardner (114 wRC+, .171 ISO) and Neil Walker (108 wRC+, .167 ISO) are below a 120 wRC+ and .215 ISO vs RHP since the start of 2017. Either as a stack or individually due to HR potential, players need to find ways to gain exposure to Yankee bats tonight. Aaron Judge (176 wRC+, .440 xwOBA, .342 ISO, 44 Hard%) has not been having a great week (20 wRC+), but could break out in an ideal matchup tonight.

Josh Tomlin failed to have a reverse split by wOBA for the first time in five years last year. While his .346 wOBA against LHBs was higher than his .335 wOBA against RHBs, his xwOBA was actually 19 points higher against RHBs, while being right on the nose vs LHBs. Suffice to say that batters from either side succeeded against him in 2017. While Mike Trout (186 wRC+, .347 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is the obvious bat, both Justin Upton (116 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Zack Cozart (138 wRC+, .247 ISO) have both had recent success against same-handed pitching as well. Shohei Ohtani is in the lineup tonight as well, though he bats left-handed. He costs less than $3K on DraftKings.

Colorado is the only offense with an implied run line above six, nearly three quarters of a run higher than any other team tonight, though 12 of 24 tonight are at 4.78 runs or higher on a pitching deficient evening. Only four offenses have an implied run line below 4.36 in fact. Colorado may not necessarily be the chalk stack tonight though. They have the lowest wRC+ in the majors against RHP (76) with a 15.2 K-BB% and 9.1 Hard-Soft%. Meanwhile, they face a pitcher (Luis Perdomo), who has generated two-thirds of his contact on the ground. Even at Coors, ground balls don't leave the yard. In fact, at a very low cost and complimenting that ground ball rate with a nearly league average strikeout rate, there may be enough support to consider Perdomo, especially as a secondary option on DraftKings. Players may not otherwise need to differentiate their lineups much, though Houston Astros (5.49 implied runs) are sure to be popular against the LH Ariel Miranda, who has a career 5.0 K-BB% and 6.04 xFIP on the road since last season. Twenty-nine of his 32 career HRs surrendered have been hit by RHBs. George Springer (172 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since last season) may and/or should be the most popular bat on the slate. He costs the same as Charlie Blackmon on FanDuel ($5.6K), but $500 less on FanDuel. If players are looking for a potential value play today and are willing to sacrifice Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman may be worth a look at third base for $2.5K or less on either site. In a small sample, he has a 140 wRC+ and .333 ISO vs RHP with a 40.9 Hard% and 59.1% fly ball rate, while Jake Odorizzi has allowed RHBs a .338 wOBA and 37.5 Hard% since last season. In fact, he has failed to allow a HR just once this season and has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last seven. He's one of several pitchers who have been very home run prone recently on tonight's slate. Julio Teheran just snapped a nine game span where he allowed 15 HRs, Tom Koehler has allowed 12 in 10 starts, Josh Tomlin had allowed eight of his 17 on the year in five start stretch just prior to his last time out, and Chris Tillman has allowed 11 over his last seven starts.

Carlos Santana to RF has several implications in an NL park. First, it allows both he and Edwin Encarnacion to remain in the lineup, making Shelby Miller's job a bit tougher. Secondly, Josh Tomlin is a fly ball pitcher in a tough park in Arizona. This may make his job tougher as well, so downgrade both pitchers, upgrade both offenses a bit here. The last thing to think about is that perhaps either Santana or Encarnacion are removed for defense after three PAs.

Josh Tomlin has not been quite as bad as Happ over the last 30 days, but his 4.68 SIERA over that period is far from elite. Tomlin has been living off of inducing soft contact, limiting hitters hard contact to 25% over the last month. Still, his 9% k rate is incredibly low and an unfortunate trend to bring to the mound when facing a potent lineup like the one the Blue Jays will send to the plate today. On the season, Tomlin posted a worse xFIP versus RHB than LHB, finishing the year with an xFIP of 4.23 versus RHBs. His susceptibility to RHBs included a HR/9 of 2.03, mainly due to a 36% flyball rate and a strikeout rate below 17%. The usual trio of Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Bautista will, of course, be in play against a RHP, all possessing wRC+ totals against RHBs of at least 125 this season. Still, these names will be inserted in the majority of lineups today and way to be contrarian on a miniature slate would be to use the Blue Jays batting at the bottom of the lineup. As far as upside is concerned, Michael Saunders and Russel Martin have ISOs of 0.205 and 0.173 versus RHP this year, respectively. Pairing Saunders and Martin with Donaldson and Encarnacion would be a way to differentiate lineups, while still getting a piece of the elite Jays power-bats.

Kevin notes only one interesting issue in today's short weather forecast. Fenway is looking at 10-15 mph wins with gusts up to 20-25 mph blowing in from LF at Fenway. That's certainly interesting to note with Josh Tomlin on the mound. He allowed 22 HRs to RHBs this season. You can find Kevin's report on our forum today and be sure to follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.

Josh Tomlin squares off against the Royals today in a game that does have first-round home-field implications. Tomlin has not been on top of his game, striking at a paltry 8% of batters that he has faced over the last fourteen days. Tomlin’s saving grace is his fantastic hard-contact allowed percentage, sitting at a minuscule 23% over that period. The soft contact is not a new phenomenon for Tomlin this year, considering that he has a respectable 31% hard-contact allowed rate on allowed to righties on the year. However, even with a small amount of hard contact, Tomlin has still managed to allow 2.03 HR/9 to RHBs, making any of the hot-hitting Royals RHBs interesting today. Salvador Perez makes a perfect choice, batting 4th and playing the always crucial C position.

Josh Tomlin has allowed the third most HRs in the majors this season (35) with a 35 Hard%. That's not to be minimized, but he is otherwise a league average pitcher (4.18 SIERA, 4.14 xFIP) with the lowest walk rate (3.1%) in baseball. He has just four double digit SwStr% efforts this season, but all in his last four starts and he faces an offense with very little power tonight (9.5 HR/FB vs RHP). He's allowed just two runs in 13.1 previous innings against Kansas City with nine strikeouts. Kendrys Morales leads the lineup with a .208 ISO vs RHP this season and five batters have an ISO below .130 against righties. Just two batters have a wRC+ above 84 vs RHP this season. Players on two pitcher sites (DraftKings $5.2K) could consider sneaking Tomlin into their second spot tonight in order to be more flexible elsewhere. It may not be a high upside spot, but has a reasonable chance of paying off.