Josiah Gray Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

This is a slate where you’re probably paying up for pitching, as the top pitchers on the board are generally the top projected values as well. There are some exceptions in a couple of lower priced high upside arms, but with those high strikeout rates come some extremely high barrel rates as well. There’s a reason these pitchers cost less than $9K. Yusei Kikuchi has struck out exactly one-quarter of the batters he’s faced and that’s where the good news ends. He’s walked 13.1% with a 22.5 HR/FB that you’d think has to regress, but the contact profile includes a 91.6 mph EV, 47.9% 95+ mph EV and 15.6% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed 14 home runs on 21 barrels (21.0%) over his last 10 starts. That’s more than a barrel for every five batted balls. The O’s took him deep three times last time out. Despite a predominantly right-handed lineup, the O’s also have just a 93 wRC+ and 24.9 K% vs LHP, resulting in a top of the board value projection for Kikuchi for $7K or less on either site, though he would be mighty difficult to trust on a single pitcher site.

Also projecting as a top five point per dollar value on either site, the main and obvious problem is that 29 of Josiah Gray’s 34 barrels have left the yard. While the good news is that his 18.8 HR/FB should regress, the 11.2% Barrels/BBE is still pretty awful. He can offset some of the damage with a 26.3 K%, but really needs to have a 30% strikeout rate to pitch successfully with that contact profile, especially when you add in a nearly double digit walk rate (9.5%). Gray has completed six innings in less than 40% of his starts with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.93 SIERA to a 4.27 xFIP. The Cubs do have a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with a 23.1 K% vs RHP, but there’s also some rain risk in this game.

Players should probably stick to one of the big three on FanDuel tonight, but along with Kikuchi and Gray, there are a few more interesting sub-$8K SP2 choices on DraftKings. Alex Cobb still has a 4.15 ERA that’s more than a run above estimators ranging from a 2.83 xFIP to a 3.13 DRA, as he struggles to consistently keep runs off the board, due to a .328 BABIP and 61.5 LOB%. His 25.3 K%, 18.2 K-BB%, 61.1 GB% and 4.2% Barrels/BBE look like a top of the rotation star. Cobb does have five Quality Starts in his last seven, but only twice with less than three earned runs. The Diamondbacks have a 93 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP.

Joe Ryan was lit up for six runs over five innings by the Dodgers last time out after being crushed for 10 by the Padres two starts early, while striking out nine of 20 Tigers in between, which all really doesn’t give us much help in trying to figure him out. He had struck out 23 of 66 batters entering that Dodger start, but again, two of those starts were against Detroit. He hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last six starts, five of his 15 home runs and 24 barrels this season came in that start against San Diego. It might be hard to understand how a 23.4 K%, 6.5 BB% and 8.9% Barrels/BBE works out to a 3.49 xERA, but no other estimators below four. A 27.6 GB% may be one reason why. A 3.95 ERA is aligned fairly closely to a 4.09 SIERA. The Royals are similar in scale to the Diamondbacks here (92 wRC+, 21.9 K% vs RHP).

A more sinker heavy Marcus Stroman has a 54.5 GB% in six start back from the IL, while his 16.7 K-BB% over this span aligns perfectly with his season rate. His 90.1 mph EV is actually nearly a mile per hour lower too, so there seems to be no drawbacks to returning to his sinker throwing ways. He has allowed multiple home runs in each of his last two starts and with a 93.2 Z-Contact% and 47% 95+ mph EV, well…that’s why you want more ground balls in the first place. Stroman has only completed six innings in 40% of his starts this year, while a 4.41 xERA is not only his only estimator above a 4.20 ERA, but the only one above four. The Nationals have a 93 wRC+ and 19.7 K% vs RHP, which is probably quite a bit worse since trading Soto and Bell, though they still don’t strike out a ton.

Over his last five starts, Julio Urias has allowed four runs in 33 innings with 31 strikeouts and just two walks. Despite completing seven innings three times in this span, the Dodgers have only let him exceed 91 pitches once and that was a six inning start. It’s rather extreme efficiency that allows Urias to get through six innings on a regular basis (5.0 BB%, 86.6 mph EV, 29.5% 95+ mph EV). The 24.2 K% is more above average that elite. That said, a .240 BABIP and 80.4 LOB% don’t hurt. A 2.79 xERA is the only non-FIP estimator within a run of his 2.49 ERA. Urias throws his curveball (-0.7 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA below .300) 32.9% of the time. It’s a pitch Milwaukee struggles with (-0.42 wCB/C), especially against LHP (87 wRC+, 25.0 K% vs LHP). Urias is a bit of a higher priced arm, but in a better spot than many people might realize.

Carlos Carrasco owns a 23.7 K% that’s above average, but below his career standard, though his 13.5 K% is actually above his career rate. He also now has four Quality Starts with at least six strikeouts in his last five. A 4.06 xERA is the only estimator above his 3.76 ERA. He doesn’t project extremely well for more than $8.5K in a tough spot with a park downgrade, but the Braves (104 wRC+, 16.0 K% vs RHP) also have a 25.4 K% vs RHP this year.

If you’re looking for a pure SP2 punt on DraftKings, Glenn Otto ($5.6K) has struck out 22 of his last 95 batters to push his season rate up to 18.9%, though an 11.8 BB% is certainly a drawback. He’s also allowed a 14.0 HR/FB, but just 12 of 23 barrels (9.5%) have left the yard. His 5.20 ERA sits between estimators ranging from a 4.90 SIERA to a 5.56 xERA. Pushing his strikeout rate up to league average would be a start, but he’ll need a lot more help than that and Oakland (79 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP) might give it to him.

With Anthony DeSclafani and Tylor Megill the only pitchers exceeding $9K on either site tonight, there’s no reason players have to pay up for pitching tonight, but this seven game board is also lacking a lot of mid-range upside tonight too, while, thankfully, there’s no need to scour the bottom of the board for a really cheap SP2. If you’re looking for mid-range upside though, the obvious thing to do is find the two highest strikeout rates on the board.

Andrew Heaney makes his Yankee debut tonight. You might be extremely concerned his prospects at Yankee Stadium (season and career 15.4 HR/FB), but Statcast park factors actually suggest that this is a park upgrade for him, both in terms of home runs and overall run environment. He’s had no problem missing bats (28.2 K%, 13.1 SwStr%), but aside from the home run rate, his .319 BABIP and 67.6 LOB% are both career worsts, so he’s still due some positive regression independent of the home runs. He has a 3.72 SIERA and 4.22 xERA. Problematically, the Orioles have a 109 wRC+ with just a 21.6 K% vs LHP this year, while they did nothing to change the composition of their lineup at the deadline. This is potentially why Heaney costs less than others with the top strikeout rate on the board (more than one start). Tonight’s projected Baltimore lineup features just three batters above a 20 K% vs LHP this season, but that doesn’t really make Heaney any less viable on this board.

One other arm with significant upside on tonight’s slate is a young pitcher making his debut with a new team, who has some very large shoes to fill. Josiah Gray will be taking Max Scherzer’s rotation spot and has struck out 13 of the 35 major league batters he’s faced with a 21.2 SwStr%, but has also walked five with four home runs, just 29.4% of his contact on the ground and a 90.7 mph EV. He hasn’t had a walk rate above 8.0% since Rookie ball and has only had a sub-15 SwStr% at one minor league stop. Prior to this season, he’d allowed in just under 200 minor league innings, but did allow three in just 15.2 AAA innings before being called up. Minor league ground ball rates have been in the mid-30s. In the most positive run environment on the board, against a contact prone Philadelphia lineup, there’s certainly some risk here and Gray has been limited to twice through the order with fewer than 80 pitches in both outings. However, this is a navigable spot, as the Phillies have just a 90 wRC+ vs RHP this year and Bryce Harper is the only projected batter above a .190 ISO vs RHP this season.