JT Brubaker Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Not only does a quarter of the available pitching cost more than $10K on FanDuel tonight, but a darn good argument can probably be made for a majority of the pitchers on the board. In fact, it’ll likely be much harder to coordinate a lineup of hitters in a way that differentiates itself enough from the rest of the field than it will be to find reasonable pitchers to roster. In fact, there are several cheaper arms among the top projected values on the board on either site, despite some higher priced arms that project fairly well. J.T. Brubaker ($7.2K) currently owns the top point per dollar projection on the board (PlateIQ projections are subject to change). He showed some upside in his rookie season (24 K%) until home runs ruined it (22.4 HR/FB). Brubaker’s still generating a similar rate of strikeouts (22.3%) with only nine of 15 barrels (7.7%) leaving the yard (12.2 HR/FB). It’s all a very average profile until you get to the walks (9.6%) with at least two in 11 of his 13 starts. While all estimators are below his 4.50 ERA (65.5 LOB%), only a 3.83 xERA is below four. Still, he’s facing a below average offense (Cubs 96 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP) in a pitcher friendly home park at a low price. The one concern here is that the Cubs also have a board high 9.4 BB% vs RHP too.

Many of the other top projected values on FanDuel for less than $10K are not pitchers you’d really want to use on a one pitcher site with the exception of Lance Lynn, who would be too cheap ($7K or less on either site) if we expect him to be firing at full strength. His velocity was down about a mile and a half per hour from last season in a 2022 debut, where he struck out just four of 22 Tigers with a 10.2 SwStr%, but no walks and an 86.7 mph EV on 18 batted balls. Lynn has produced a K-BB north of 18.5% in three straight seasons, so we’ll have to see if the velocity bounces back or how it affects him if it does not. If it does in this start, he could be a top value arm despite a very dangerous matchup (Blue Jays 109 wRC+, 21.4 K% vs RHP) with hitter friendly weather conditions expected in Chicago. The good news is that this is a lineup that bats almost entirely from the right-hand side and Lynn has dominated RHBs since last season (.229 wOBA, .218 xwOBA).

Considering some lower priced SP2 options on DraftKIngs, we have Lynn at $5.8K as the top projected value on the board, but Calieb Kilian right behind him for just $5K. A tale of two completely different starts, as Kilian struck out six of 19 Cardinals with two walks in his major league debut, but then walked five of 22 Padres without a strikeout the next time out. Fangraphs gives him a 45 Future Value grade with potentially elite command, but that was before his walk rate jumped up to 8.7% at AAA this season, which was still fine with a 25.7 K% and 57.6 GB%. He’s generated more than half his major league contact on the ground (51.9%) without a barrel yet (89.1 mph EV), but now more walks than strikeouts. He’s making his third start in a great spot in Pittsburgh (83 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP).

Noah Syndergaard’s velocity decline is important, but it doesn’t mean he can no longer be an effective pitcher. Consider that he’s allowed more than three runs just twice with Quality Starts in four of his 10 efforts merely by sustaining above average control (6.1 BB%) and solid contact management skills (87.5 mph EV, 47.9 GB%, 6.7% Barrels/BBE) and then realize that the strikeout rate still shows signs of eminent improvement. His 1.61 K/SwStr is the lowest on the board and comes with an above average 17.9 CStr%. A recent Fangraphs article highlighted his ability to get to two strikes, but an inability to locate his secondaries (sliders, changeups) efficiently enough to get those strikeouts. Current non-FIP estimators (6.8 HR/FB) with just a 16.4 K% range between a 4.23 DRA and 4.40 SIERA, but this seems like a correctable problem, which could increase his strikeout rate and drop his estimators closer to his 3.53 ERA, rather than the other way around. He’ll likely never be the pitcher he was, but he might be just fine. The Royals don’t strike out much (21.2%), but don’t do a lot of damage with their contact either against RHP (90 wRC+). Syndergaard should have plenty of floor for $6.4K price tag and potentially even more upside than he’s shown so far.

Additional tidbits on some mid-range pitchers include Alex Faedo striking out 17 of his last 60 batters to bring his strikeout rate up to 19.3% with an 11.1 SwStr%. A nearly 24 year-old rookie with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), Josh Winckowski profiles as a multi-inning reliever, but the Red Sox are having him spot start until they get a bit healthier. His two major league starts have lasted eight innings, striking out just seven of 38 batters and a 90.8 mph EV, but 55.6% of his contact on the ground. The good news is that he’s exceeded a 50% ground ball rate at nearly every level of play and owns a 20+ K-BB% over 54.2 AAA innings and faces the Tigers tonight (68 wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP). Jose Berrios has recorded five Quality Starts in his last six attempts with seventh inning outs recorded in all five of them. The strikeout rate is up to 28.6% over his last five and that includes two starts with a total of four strikeouts. The White Sox have just a 20.1 K% vs RHP, but also just an 87 wRC+. The contact profile has remained intact (57 GB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE) with great control (6.2 BB%), but we’ve kept waiting on Logen Webb’s strikeouts to return this season and they have with a 28.1 K% over his last five starts. In fact, he’s struck out at least six in all but two starts since the end of April. Webb’s 3.44 SIERA is his only estimator above a 3.43 ERA. He’s in a tough spot in Atlanta, but certainly not without upside (101 wRC+, 25.7 K% vs RHP). Miles Mikolas threw 129 pitches in his last start, but more than 105 in four of his last six. While he has just a 20.3 K%, excellent control (4.9 BB%) and contact management (5.4% Barrels/BBE, 33.5% 95+ mph EV) allows him to pitch deeper into games and generate some useful strikeout totals. Mikolas has recorded seventh inning outs in six of his last 10 starts. Even Zach Davies has struck out 20 of his last 78 batters and will be facing the Manny Machado-less Padres. Davies did rack up those Ks against the Pirates and Reds though. As mentioned, you can find something positive to say about almost any pitcher on the board except for maybe Kris Bubic and even he’s been a bit better recently.

While Lance Lynn and Pablo Lopez own two of the higher upside spots on the slate, we can find some enormous opposing strikeout rates facing Alek Manoah (vs Rays), J.T. Brubaker (vs Brewers) and Sonny Gray (vs Cubs). All of Manoah’s seven home runs have come in two starts (Marlins & Orioles), though the 26.8 K% (12.8 SwStr%) has been otherwise impressive. He does have a 39 GB% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE overall, so the contact profile could become a concern, but it’s still a small sample and he seems to be transitioning well to the majors. He worked up to a season high 97 pitches last time out too. A peak at the projected lineup for Tampa Bay illustrates seven batters above a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020. That is a mind-blowing number, though not the only one, as we’ll soon see. Unfortunately, there’s significant concern for the weather in this spot with Kevin currently labeling the game Orange/Yellow and noting “a mess of scattered showers and storms in the general area”. Should the outlook improve, Manoah costs less than $8K.

Brubaker’s velocity has been steadily dropping and even with nine strikeouts two starts back, he had just a 21.6 K% in June. The caveat is that he’s been above a 12.5 SwStr% in three straight anyway. His 3.82 nearly perfectly matches up with a 3.80 SIERA & xFIP. The Brewers have been hot (146 wRC+, 13.2 K%, 19.1 HR/FB last seven days), but still have just an 87 wRC+ and 25.5 K% vs RHP this year. PlateIQ informs us that their projected lineup includes five batters (not including the pitcher’s spot) with a 25.5 K% or higher against RHP since last year. You wouldn’t be wrong to be a bit concerned about Brubaker’s workload possibly contributing to the velocity loss for a pitcher who hasn’t thrown more than 50 innings since 2018 prior to this year, but he’s still getting swings and misses and is $7K or less on either site, potentially the top value on the board.

Sonny Gray’s 30.1 K% is behind just Max Scherzer and Luis Patino on tonight’s board and the Cubs have a 90 wRC+ with a 26.7 K% vs RHP. Six of eight in the projected lineup for Chicago exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020 and both Bryant and Rizzo have missed games this week. There’s a chance Gray could be facing a compromised lineup. This is all good news for him. The problem is that he makes his first start since June 8th. He struck out just four of 13 in his lone rehab start and could be limited here. Before the injury, he had the lowest ground ball rate of his career (44.2%) by over five points, yet the contact profile remained strong (87.2 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE). Non-FIP estimators are all within a quarter of a run of his 3.42 ERA. At $7.5K or less he may have been one of the top values on the slate with a full workload and may still be useable here with a pitch count of 75-80, which could get him through five innings with some efficiency. Of course, the park is one of the most power friendly in baseball though.

J.T. Brubaker certainly doesn’t fit the high priced criteria at less than $8K on either site and he probably doesn’t fit the high upside category either, though the Cardinals do have an 88 wRC+ vs RHP. There are four in the projected lineup for the Cardinals above a 28 K% vs RHP though. However, the main point here is that J.T. Brubaker has been just plain good. He has a 25.5 K% (11.4 SwStr%), 5.6 BB%, 53.8 GB% and 86.7 mph EV. Those are the characteristics of an All-Star pitcher. He won’t sustain the 93.4 LOB%, nor probably the 21.4 HR/FB. Non-FIP estimators are all above three, but within a run of his 2.58 ERA. The negative run environment adds even more to this strong middle of the board value tonight.

Top upside spots on the main slate, as determined by opposing strikeout rates, belonging to pitchers costing less than $9K go to Lewis Thorpe (vs Rangers), Martin Perez (vs Tigers) and Shohei Ohtani (vs Rays). This is a mess of unfortunate circumstances. First, in that the Rockies, Orioles, Mariners and Marlins are off the main slate, removing many of the worst offenses in the majors from our choices tonight. Next is the misfortune of having these three pitchers land in the top spots tonight. Thorpe lasted just 60 pitches and four innings in his lone start April 16th, striking out just two of 15 Angels, and last pitched on April 20th. He now has 49 major league innings under his belt with a few spot starts included. The results are a 10.5 K-BB%, 37.9 GB%, 87.5 mph EV and 7.8% Barrels/BBE. The 5.88 ERA is about a run above estimators due to a .395 BABIP. He is at least the minimum on DraftKings if players are looking for a pure punt to pair with Bieber. How much trouble can he get in here? The projected Texas lineup has four batters right in the middle above a 28 K% vs LHP since 2019.

With a 20.8 K%, 8.3 BB%, 36.2 GB% and 88.2 mph EV, there’s really nothing Martin Perez is doing to help the Boston rotation, but he’s somehow allowed just three Barrels (4.3%), only one of which has left the yard. And he still somehow had a 4.90 ERA. It could be even worse. Maybe not against the Tigers though. Six of nine projected starters exceed a 23 K% vs LHP since 2019. Paying more than $6.5K for Perez at Fenway feels very uncomfortable though. Ohtani would be a great option were he available as a pitcher tonight. He is not however.

If you don’t want to pay up for pitching on FanDuel and are still looking for a Quality Start…you may be out of luck, but Chris Bassitt and Ryan Yarbrough could be considerations. Beware Bassitt’s strikeout boost over his last three starts though, as he’s faced the Tigers, Orioles and Rays. The Blue Jays will present a tougher test, but he does face them in a favorable environment at home. Yarbrough has actually averaged more batters per start than anyone except Shane Bieber today. He has a league average 11.2 SwStr% that projects a better strikeout rate than his current 18.1%, In fact, he is up to 21.4% over his last four outings, but it’s really superior control (4.2 BB%) and contact management (83.4 mph EV) that defines him and he’s been doing it for long enough at this point that we can probably spit on his 6.40 DRA (where does that even come from) and perhaps even his 4.86 ERA, more in favor of his 3.86 xERA. He’s the only pitcher on the board who’s made more than three starts with an ERA at least a run above his xERA. The matchup obviously looks much better if Anthony Rendon remains out for the Angels.

The last guy who deserves some recognition is J.T. Brubaker in San Diego tonight. He’s $7.5K or less on either site. A 26.5 K% (13.6 SwStr%) paired with a 4.4 BB% and 54.2 GB% are showing Pittsburgh fans what a breakout looks like before a pitcher leaves the team. His 2.63 ERA is a bit below estimators because the 91.2 LOB% is about 10-15 points too high, but none even reach four. The Padres have just a 91 wRC+ and 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year.

Some of the highest upside spots (based solely on opposing strikeout rates and average number of batters faced without regard to a pitcher’s own strikeout rate) have been gifted to pitchers we generally don’t want any part of or may not even be on the slate tonight (which is a shame because the Cubs and Brewers both generally offer pitcher upside). The most audible groans are probably reserved for Martin Perez facing the Mariners (seven batters in projected Seattle lineup above a 26.5 K% vs LHP since 2019) in what may be the most positive run environment on the board when including weather effects and Dylan Cease hosting the Rangers, who have a 29.5 K% against RHP this year. In Perez’s case, he simply doesn’t generate swing and misses (6.7 SwStr% in 2021), while Cease walks too many (14 of 63 this year), quickly running up his pitch count. The latter costs just $6.6K on either site though and may work as a secondary arm on DraftKings tonight.

Covering a few additional pitchers costing under $10K in potential high upside spots gives us such names as German Marquez, J.T. Brubaker, Mike Minor, Steven Matz and Vince Velasquez. Let’s get Coors out of the way first, where Marquez faces Velasquez. The latter, like Cease, runs up pitch counts with control issues (14.2 BB% since last year), but could face a lineup with six batters above a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019. Marquez has just a 21.1 K% since last year, but there may be some sneaky strikeouts in a Philadelphia team that has a 25.4 K% vs RHP this year and 27.3% overall over the last seven days. Additionally, conditions suggest that Coors may not be as dangerous as usual according to Weather Edge. Vazquez is the lowest priced pitcher on the board on DraftKings.

Matz (26.5 K%) is enjoying a complete reversal of BABIP and HR/FB fortune early on and gets the Rays (five of nine in projected lineup at 25 K% or higher vs LHP since 2019) in a negative run environment, but costs around $9K on either site. Minor has a 17.6 K%, but more respectable 10.8 SwStr% and is facing a Detroit offense with a 30.8 K% vs LHP this year. He’s certainly an option for less than $7K on either site. The surprise here is Brubaker. Not only at his 27.3 K% this year, but also at potentially finding four batters at the bottom of the Minnesota lineup above a 30 K% vs RHP since 2019. Brubaker costs around $8K and could go under-owned against an offense with a big reputation and 119 wRC+ vs RHP this year. The upside in this spot may dictate that he’s worth the gamble for GPP players tonight.

The highest upside spot on the board tonight (as determined by average batters faced per start and opposing projected lineup strikeout rate without regard to a pitcher’s own ability) belongs to…Jorge Lopez on Friday night. The potential Texas lineup finds six strikeout rates above 25% vs RHP since 2019. Lopez is a pitcher we generally want no part of due to his tendency towards the long ball (career 17.8 HR/FB, 9.5% Barrels/BBE), but with a park upgrade and 55.6 GB% so far in such a strong spot at just $6K on DraftKings, perhaps he’s an acceptable GPP lottery ticket behind deGrom.

Spot number two belongs to Jose Urquidy, who may see five Mariners above a 25 K% in Seattle. He still may be priced too high for comfort on DraftKings ($10.1K), but is a full $3K less on FanDuel where it might not be a terrible idea to pay down if you’re worried about deGrom’s ownership tonight. An under the radar name might be J.T. Brubaker, who carries a modest 23.5 K% and 11.3 SwStr% since the start of last season, but finds himself in Milwaukee against a lineup that may not have a batter below a 22.7 K% vs RHP and that’s even projecting Christian Yelich (back) to return. Brubaker is $7.5K or less on either site. Mike Foltynewicz and Mike Minor also find themselves in high upside spots against the Orioles and Blue Jays respectively (yes, that Toronto lineup has power, but a lot of strikeouts in it), but the former has just a 5.9 SwStr% so far this year, while the latter has major weather concerns, though he is below $7K on either site.