Justin Morneau Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ervin Santana returns home for the first time in five starts. The first three of those starts were strong in Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Kansas City with his K% and SwStr% spiking before facing a real test in Toronto, which he failed miserably by walking five with just four strikeouts. He has a nice matchup at home against the White Sox (87 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP), but he now costs above $9K on DraftKings (more than deGrom). $7.7K on FanDuel is more reasonable, but still not exciting when facing Quintana in a game where he is not favored. Santana has no real platoon split. Batters from either side have a wOBA around .300 against him since last year. Because we have to reach a bit lower on just a three game slate, Adam Eaton (122 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is probably the most attractive bat here for right around $3.5K on either site. Alex Avila (97 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is a reasonable choice at Catcher for less than $3K. Justin Morneau (100 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is today's BvP champion. He has four career HRs against Santana, but they were both very different players a few years back.

Daniel Norris has an 81.0 LOB% that's keeping his 3.63 ERA nearly a run below his estimators and further complicates issues with just a 5.2 K-BB% in August. While the White Sox are an average offense against LHP (102 wRC+), projected for just four runs tonight, there are not a lot of great spots in this lineup, but Tim Anderson (148 wRC+, .175 ISO vs LHP) is actually an interesting SS batting second. He has a 51.9 Hard% over the last week and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. While RHBs have a .314 wOBA against him in his career, Norris actually has a significant reverse platoon split. LHBs have a .376 wOBA and 33.3 Hard%. Eaton and Morneau have been near league average bats vs LHP, but with little power.

Taijuan Walker will face off against the White Sox today in Chicago. Walker looks to get back on track, but he will have to hold down the White Sox LHBs like Justin Morneau and Adam Eaton. Morneau and Eaton have shown power against RHP, holding ISOs of 0.204 and 0.156, respectively. Meanwhile, Walker has allowed a fly ball percentage to LHBs of 46%, exacerbated by a hard contact rate allowed to lefties of 32%. For anyone considering a full White Sox stack, be sure to include Todd Frazier who is hitting the ball hard 41% of the time over the last 7 days.

James Paxton returns from a DL stint stemming from an elbow issue. He’s faced just 11 AAA batters over the last two and a half weeks and the Mariners will likely be cautious, severely hampering any value he might have today at a high cost, though $7.3K on FanDuel could still be interesting if he can get through five with a lead, which his bullpen then holds. He does have an 11.5 SwStr% and 21.5 K% and is facing a below average offense (92 wRC+ at home, 95 wRC+ vs LHP) without one of there few competent bats (Melky Cabrera) tonight. He also has an odd reverse split. LHBs have a .351 wOBA against him in his career, though he's only allowed three of his 19 HRs to them, while RHBs have a .279 wOBA with four times as many plate appearances. Robin Ventura will not take advantage of this, moving up Avisail Garcia (95 wRC+, .123 ISO vs LHP since 2015) instead of Justin Morneau (101 wRC+, .161 ISO vs LHP since 2015) in the order tonight. There one interesting bat in the Chicago lineup is right-handed and bats second. Tim Anderson (124 wRC+, .174 ISO vs LHP) wouldn't have to do much to cover $2.3K on FanDuel for players looking to save at SS.

While home/road splits need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially in the small sample size beginning of a young pitcher's career, some attention has to be paid to Jerad Eickhoff's 12.9 K-BB% on the road, 5.1 points lower than at home. He also has a large split which sees LHBs hit him much better with a .346 wOBA and 17 of his 26 career HRs allowed. LHBs on the road have a .379 wOBA and 10 HRs. Let's look at some LH White Sox batters. Melky Cabrera (102 wRC+, .133 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Justin Morneau (120 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP this year) each cost just $2.9K on DraftKings, while Adam Eaton (123 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs right around $3.5K on either site.

Ian Kennedy has a 28.4 K% at home this season along with a ridiculous 0.71 GB/FB and 28.4 Hard-Soft%, but it’s only led to a league average 13.8 HR/FB in that big park, while his defense does the rest of the work (.278 BABIP). Perhaps feels more confident challenging hitters in this park and is in a decent spot tonight against a below average offense (87 wRC+ on the road, 88 wRC+ vs RHP). While that kind of upside for less than $9K on either site has Kennedy firmly in play, it doesn't preclude the few bats with any power against RHP in this lineup from consideration. Both sides can benefit from the current situation. Todd Frazier (98 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP this season) is the only bat with real power. He does cost just $3.3K on FanDuel. The good news is that Kennedy has no real platoon split with batters from either side hitting the ball hard more than 35% of the time with a wOBA between .325 and .341 since last season. Justin Morneau (less than $3K on either site) joins Jose Abreu (less than $4K on either site) as the most potent bats with a .172 ISO each vs RHP this year.

Batters from either side have a wOBA above .340 against Yovani Gallardo with LHBs up to .390 with a 33.3 Hard% which is the same as his GB% against them. Justin Morneau (117 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP this season) is a cheap First Base option with a 171 wRC+ and 47.6 Hard% over the last week for a team projected for 4.8 runs tonight. There are few above average bats in this lineup and only Todd Frazier also has an ISO above .200 vs RHP this year, but they are affordable with only Adam Eaton (107 wRC+ vs RHP this season) above $4K on DraftKings with he and Frazier the only bats above $3K on FanDuel. This is a lineup that can be picked apart for salary relief in a good spot tonight.

It takes a pitcher like Mike Pelfrey to interest daily fantasy players in multiple White Sox bats. Only the Rockies and Red Sox have a higher run projection tonight (5.43 runs). While batters from each side have a wOBA just above .370 against him since last season, there's more than a nine point difference in hit hard rate (32.7% vs 23.5%), heavily in favor of LHBs. He generally keeps RHBs on the ground (56.8% this year), so the damage they do is probably going to be more along the lines of driving in runners already on base, though they do have seven HRs against him this year, so let's not write off Abreu (103 wRC+, .163 ISO vs RHP this season) or Frazier (98 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this season). Eaton (96 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP this season) is one of the top bats here, while Cabrera (109 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP this season) and Morneau (101 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are strong values for $3.6K or less on either site.