Kennys Vargas Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

This may be daily fantasy blasphemy, but an all out assault on James Shields does not look very appealing tonight despite Minnesota's 5.35 implied run line that's fourth highest on the board. From an offensive perspective, consider the Twins' team 17.2 K-BB% and 21.8 Hard% over the last week. Looking at tonight's confirmed lineup, eight of nine batters have either a wRC+ above 100 vs RHP or a wRC+ above 190 overall over the last seven days. However, only Kenny Vargas (103 wRC+) and Max Kepler (31 wRC+) have a hard hit rate above 25% over the last week. Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco all have a 190+ wRC+ with a hard hit rate below 25% over the last week. Then there's Shields himself. Over the last month (25.8 K%), five starts, he's not had a below average SwStr% in a single start and has been at or above 12% in each of his last three starts. He's still allowed eight HRs over this span with a 37.8 GB%, but with road starts in Texas and Boston and a power friendly home environment. His hard hit rate is just 13.8% over his last two starts, dropping his Barrels/BBE rate into single digits for the season. His 87.6 mph aEV is now just 10th highest on the board, near Chad Kuhl and Luis Perdomo. Perhaps Chad Kuhl would make a better target tonight. The Cubs are projected for 4.76 runs, but with Kris Bryant the only RHB among the first seven in the lineup. LHBs have a .367 wOBA, 37.9 GB% and 22.8 Hard-Soft% against Kuhl this season.

While the Minnesota Twins have just a team 85 wRC+ and 6.5 HR/FB vs LHP, they have several RHBs that project much better against southpaws. Miguel Sano (141 wRC+, .267 ISO career), Brian Dozier (123 wRC+, .256 ISO since 2015), Kennys Vargas (154 wRC+, .216 ISO career) and Robbie Grossman (141 wRC+, .179 ISO since 2015) have all had great success against LHP. Additionally, Kyle Freeland has been an extreme ground ball pitcher (65.9%), but with just a 15.1 K%. The Twins have not had many opportunities against ground ball pitchers this year (179 PAs), but Vargas (13 PAs) and Sano (18 PAs) have both homered twice. Robbie Grossman (0 for 12) is the only one of the four who appears to have a difficult time against worm burners so far.

We once again find ourselves in a spot where the two teams playing at Coors hold the highest implied run lines despite the Dodgers' inefficiencies against LHP (87 wRC+) and the Rockies' inefficiencies overall (80 wRC+ at home, 20.0 K-BB% vs LHP). On other team nearly cracks five implied runs (4.99) via the RotoGrinders Vegas Odds, despite their own 51 wRC+ at home vs a pitcher generating a 62.2 GB% with a double digit SwStr% in each of his last four starts. Beyond that, looking for poor pitchers too attack isn't as much of an issue as looking for poor pitchers in poor spots. Many of the more difficult spots go to quality arms tonight. One potentially under-valued spot players might be able to look for offense is Chicago tonight. Derek Holland has improved to a league average 12.2 K-BB%, but his 2.02 ERA is mostly a product of a .220 BABIP and 6.4 HR/FB. He's allowing a 38.2% hard contact rate with RHBs owning a .340 wOBA against him since 2015. The Twins find themselves projected to score just four runs despite several lefty-mashing bats in the lineup. A stack including Kennys Vargas (159 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP career), Miguel Sano (134 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP career), Robbie Grossman (142 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Brian Dozier (120 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Jorge Polanco (117 wRC+, .179 ISO vs LHP since 2015) could pay off nicely. On the other end, Phil Hughes gives it up to everybody, casting no such illusions with an ERA and estimators above four. He's allowed Barrels on 9.7% of PAs according to Statcast with RHBs pounding him for a .355 wOBA and 35.1 Hard% since 2015. The White Sox are poor vs RHP (67 wRC+), yet are still projected for the fifth highest run line (4.44), which says more about the opposing pitcher. Jose Abreu (129 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP since 2015 since 2015), Matt Davidson (139 wRC+, .361 ISO vs RHP career) and Todd Frazier (102 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) should all make fine plays.

Players looking to save salary tonight should probably be looking to punt Catcher more than any other position and that makes Robinson Chirinos a really interesting name despite the fact that he's batting eighth. The upside against a pitcher who allows so much hard contact (37.1% vs RHBs since 2015) may be high enough to overcome lineup spot for the cost ($3.1K DK/$2.6K FD) Chirinos has a 135 wRC+, .261 ISO vs LHP since 2015 and hits in a great park in Texas tonight. Cameron Rupp (144 wRC+, .286 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is another bat low in the order that could provide some cheap ($2.4K FD) power behind the dish. He and Willson Contreras (116 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP) are both $3.3K on DK. Michael Conforto ($3.2K DK) and Seth Smith ($2.8K) are two very affordable, though not incredibly cheap leadoff options. Players are much less likely to want to go cheap at First Base, but Kennys Vargas mashes lefties (220 wRC+, .388 ISO since last season) and costs just $2.4K on FanDuel, batting fifth against Cole Hamels, who hasn't been himself this year. Delino DeShields costs just $2.2K on FanDuel out of the leadoff spot for Texas, but has just an 84 wRC+, .106 ISO vs LHP since 2015. The same can be said about Jaff Decker (88 wRC+, .085 ISO vs RHP) for $2.3K on FD, $2K on DK. Although it's not confirmed yet, stay alert for the San Diego lineup, which has some potential for cheap bats up top in a great park.

Dylan Bundy and James Paxton are now expected to be the chalk on DraftKings tonight after losing a couple of top of the board pitchers off the slate. Things appear to be more spread out on FanDuel tonight where it may not be necessary to fade any arm due to ownership concerns. Trevor Cahill and Sean Manaea each have a projected ownership rate of less than 8% on either side and each have a SwStr rate above 14% this year. Coors bats rule the board again from the offensive side, but Third Base might be a great spot to differentiate with Miguel Sano and Maikel Franco both having platoon advantages and projected to be in less than 8% of lineups on either site tonight. At First Base, Kennys Vargas is a cheap bat who smashes LHP potentially at a very low expected ownership rate. Premium subscribers can find use our Projected Ownership page to view projections for all players tonight.

Three batters are projected to have a projected HR rate higher than 7% according to the RotoGrinders HR Predictor. Joey Gallo is in a lefty on lefty situation, but the pitcher he is facing does allow a lot of hard contact. Gallo doesn't often make contact, but when he does, he makes sure the ball knows who it was that punished it. He has a .237 ISO vs LHP in limited major league opportunities and hits in a great park. The number two man on the list is Kennys Vargas, who gets to hit in the same park. Cole Hamels is just a shell of his former self at this point in the season and Vargas has a career 180 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP. Austin Hedges is third on the list, another surprise. He was originally scheduled to face Taijuan Walker, but projections can only go up against Zach Godley. He has a .271 ISO vs RHP since last season. Fourth place on the list is where we see our first expected name with Nelson Cruz carrying a 6.84% projected HR rate.

The night slate has already been thrown into chaos, down two top pitchers in Syndergaard and Martinez, and though Coors houses the two highest implied run lines tonight (Col 5.82 - Was 5.68) players must consider how to handle a ground baller (Chatwood 56.6 GB% last two calendar years) and weak contact generator (Roark 25.3 Hard% last two calendar years). While this isn't a recommendation to fade Coors bats, it does look at a few alternatives for those who choose to do so. Outfield appears to offer the top alternatives. Nelson Cruz faces a mediocre lefty (185 wRC+, .331 ISO since 2015), which immediately makes him a strong candidate in any park, where as Detroit is fairly neutral. Michael Conforto (133 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP career) will hopefully remain in the leadoff spot. Julio Teheran is walking more batters and striking out fewer and has struggled against LHBs for a long time (.360 wOBA since 2015). Mike Trout (179 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP since 2015) faces an up and coming southpaw, but one who has struggled with hard contact occasionally (RHBs 32.7 Hard%, 17 HRs since Manaea's call-up). Chris Davis (140 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP since 2015) faces a pitcher who has been torched by LHBs (.486 wOBA) since returning from Tommy John surgery after the Tampa Bay bullpen was worn out last night. Seth Smith (121 wRC+, .194 ISO ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a cheaper bat that should be atop that same lineup. Miguel Sano (131 wRC+, .256 ISO vs LHP career), Kennys Vargas (180 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP career) and Brian Dozier (121 wRC+, .251 ISO vs LHP since 2015) face a southpaw who has forgotten how to miss bats (Hamels 7.9 SwStr%) in Texas.

Brian Dozier's absence from the lineup should give Danny Duffy a bump, but he'd been struggling lately anyway. Duffy has seen his strikeout rate fluctuate more from start to start with just four in his last start and he has now allowed 11 HRs over his last six starts with a 42.1 Hard%.RHBs now have a .320 wOBA against him with 25 HRs. The biggest component in his favor is a park that limits power, though 13 of those 25 HRs have come at home. We might be able to consider four RH Twins bats tonight, all with favorable price tags below $4K on DraftKings and $3K on FanDuel. Kennys Vargas (244 wRC+, .405 ISO), Miguel Sano (117 wRC+, .244 ISO), Jorge Polanco (134 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Robbie Grossman (175 wRC+, .248 ISO) have all performed well against LHP this season.

Jason Vargas threw 52 and 70 pitches in his first two starts, so he may not be long for this game and the expectation should be that he will be replaced with a RHP as the Twins are prepared for a LHP with this lineup. This does devalue their top bats. While Brian Dozier (159 wRC+, .348 ISO vs LHP this season) is now over-priced as he's hit the skids (-31 wRC+ last seven days) players could still consider the other potent bats in this lineup on FanDuel, all between $2.7K and $3.1K. Sano (117 wRC+, .247 ISO), Polanco (146 wRC+, .246 ISO), Grossman (180 wRC+, .252 ISO) and Vargas (262 wRC+, .429 ISO) have all shown exceptional power against LHP this year, though this is not a power friendly park.

Reason #1: The Twins have a trio of Twins who are destroying left-handed pitching this year. Kennys Vargas, Robbie Grossman, and Brian Dozier have wRC+ totals versus LHP of 269, 184, and 162, respectively. Reason #2: Ariel Miranda has been allowing batters to elevate the ball at a ridiculous rate, holding a flyball percentage of 53% this year against RHBs. Reason #3: The game will be played at Target Field, a stadium that is positive for right-handed batter home run power, right-handed batter doubles, and right-handed batter averages.