Kenta Maeda Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While a full, 15 game slate is a bit light on high end pitching, the board is somewhat loaded with capable mid-range arms, starting with Charlie Morton, who has seven straight starts of at least seven strikeouts (30.7 K%, 13.7 SwStr%), missing as many quality starts by a single run and two outs. For the season, his 3.65 ERA is less than one-quarter of a run removed from any of his estimators. The Mets have a 95 wRC+ vs RHP, but have been a bit better since the lineup returned to nearly full health and don’t strike out a ton. While Citi Field is generally one of the more negative run environments in baseball, the weather could make it play more neutrally tonight. Morton may not have much value at nearly $10K on DraftKings, but costs only $8.6K on FanDuel.

While Dylan Cease has just one quality start and a 5.49 ERA over his last eight starts, he’s done this with a 21.4 K-BB% that’s higher than his season rate, but stranded 66.9% of runners with a 19.5 HR/FB and 13% Barrels/BBE. However, for the season, he doesn’t have a single estimator above four, including a 3.89 xERA and 3.72 FIP. If fact, all of his estimators are tightly packed between that FIP and a 3.98 xFIP. In a power suppressing park in Kansas City, he faces an offense with just an 89 wRC+ and 10.7 HR/FB vs RHP. The projected lineup includes five batters above a 26 K% vs RHP this season. At $8.6K or less, Cease may be undervalued.

The matchup in Tampa Bay brings us two interesting pitchers in a negative run environment. Jordan Montgomery did not allow a run in his last outing at Fenway (5.2 IP – 3 H – 1 BB – 6 K). It was the first time he’d done that since May. In fact, he had allowed exactly three runs in his three previous starts. He misses more than enough bats (24.3 K%, 13.2 SwStr%) to be a quality starter with good control (7.2 BB%) and an average contact profile. As such, his 3.96 ERA is well within a half run of all of his non-DRA estimators. While the addition of Nelson Cruz has significantly improved the outlook of this lineup against LHP, there are still six batters in the projected Tampa Bay lineup above a 23.5 K% vs LHP this year. Alternatively, Shane McClanahan has been given a bit more rope, facing at least 21 batters in four of his last five starts and has shown elite swing and miss stuff so far (16.3 SwStr%), which makes even a 28.6 K% potentially improved upon. His 3.88 ERA perfectly matches his DRA, but is slightly above all additional estimators. The projected Yankee lineup is still missing key RH bats, but may include six batters above a 24 K% vs LHP this year. McClanahan is within $300 of $9K on either site, but Montgomery is significantly less and is a great SP2 option on DraftKings for just $6.7K.

Kenta Maeda’s velocity is still down and the surface results aren’t great (6 ER last 12 IP), but he does have a 36 K% (31.4 K-BB%) and 84.8 mph EV over his last four starts. His 4.63 ERA is at least half a run above all non-DRA estimators (.321 BABIP, 68.7 LOB%). Maeda also gets a pitcher friendly umpire at home against a Detroit offense with a 93 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP. Six of nine in the projected lineup exceed a 23 K% vs RHP. For less than $8.5K on either site, Maeda may be one of the top pitching values on the board.

Good or even great pitching is fairly easy to find on Opening Day, but finding it affordably is more of a prize and that’s exactly what we’re likely getting from both sides in Milwaukee on Thursday. Though it’s one of the few environments protected from the early April weather, it’s only a neutral run environment with the roof closed and there are a lot of things to like about this pitching matchup. Both Kenta Maeda and Brandon Woodruff are coming off Cy Young worthy seasons. Each exceeded a 30% strikeout rate with ERAs and estimators right around three. Both were excellent contact managers as well, Woodruff with an 86.7 mph EV and 17.2 IFFB% and Maeda with an 85.3 mph EV. Both had a 49% ground ball rate as well. Each pitcher will have a top defense behind them as well. The Brewers added three Gold Glove caliber defenders since the end of last season (Cain, Bradley, Wong) and the Twins were tied for third with seven Runs Prevented, according to Statcast. Both lineups lean more right-handed against pitchers who have dominated RHBs (Maeda below a .230 wOBA & xwOBA, Woodruff exactly a .250 wOBA & xwOBA since 2019). In addition, an NL park means the Twins loose the DH, which very likely means Nelson Cruz. Christian Yelich (160 wRC+, .314 ISO vs RHP since 2019) is really the only dangerous LH bat in either lineup. In fact, projected lineups for the game include nine batters above a 25 K% vs RHP last season. Lastly, let’s get back to that affordable part again. Neither pitcher reaches $9.5K on FanDuel on a main slate where four pitchers are $10K or more. On DraftKings, both are below $8.5K with six pitchers more expensive than either.

Kenta Maeda has been good enough to be a fringe Cy Young contender in most seasons. He’s put up a 27.2 K-BB%, while sustaining an excellent batted ball (49.7 GB%, 20.5 IFFB%) and elite contact profile (85.3 mph EV). His 2.53 ERA is a bit lower than all of his estimators (.206 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%), but a 3.05 FIP and 3.18 DRA are the only ones that exceed three. The Tigers have generally been a dream matchup for RHPs this year (80 wRC+, 20.9 K-BB%) and the lineup has only gotten weaker as the season’s gone on. Only one batter in the lineup for Detroit is above a 100 wRC+ with nobody above a .170 ISO against RHP since 2019. Maeda is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at an even $10K with the only drawback being that he’s only exceeded 94 pitches once this season and has even been below 90 in six of 10 starts. However, he’s been so efficient that he’s completed at least six innings in seven of 10 starts.

Kenta Maeda owns a 19.3 K-BB% through four starts, but his 14.5 SwStr% is more in line with his rate last year and suggests an increase in his 23.1 K% to something closer to his 27.1% rate in 2019 as well. Maeda has long been an elite contact manager (86.6 mph aEV this year, 86.3 mph career) and has allowed just 4.9% career Barrels/BBE, while never going above 5.2% in a season. The interesting thing this year is that he’s generated a ground ball rate above 50% in three of his four starts, while he’s been below 41% in each of the last three seasons. With a 2.66 ERA, 3.66 SIERA, 2.39 DRA and 3.24 xERA Maeda may be putting it all together this year. He combines the uptick in performance with a great spot on Tuesday night. The Brewers have a team 72 wRC+ and 20.2 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Maeda could be considered one of the top pitchers on the mound tonight and for $1K less than Darvish and Carrasco, potentially a better value too.

Kenta Maeda has allowed just five runs through 17 innings with a 21 K-BB%. The strikeout rate is along the lines of his career rate, but the walk rate (4.8%) is much lower. Maeda is also generating ground balls (48.8%) at the highest rate of his career. Always a strong contact manager, he’s off to a great start for his new team, generating an 86.4 mph aEV and 3.02 xERA. Nobody expects a .146 BABIP to continue, but even so, his estimators are all below three and a half. The heavy lifting by the top end of the Minnesota bullpen in this series could push Maeda a bit further tonight. The Brewers have just an 83 wRC+ and 28.9 K% vs RHP. There’s some upside in this lineup for Maeda and while he’s worse against LHBs (.304 wOBA) than RHBs (.227) since last season, there’s not a lot to worry about here beyond Yelich and potentially Smoak. Because players have to use a pitcher on this slate and the pickings are slim, Maeda makes a ton of sense as the second most expensive arm at $8.7K.

Kenta Maeda has struck out 18 of his last 46 batters to push his strikeout rate up to 26.8% on the season. While a 4.13 ERA matches traditional estimators, there’s a chance that there may be further upside for Maeda considering his quality contact management (28.8% 95+ mph EV) if he’s going to continue striking out batters at nearly an elite rate. His 3.41 DRA is 72 points better than his ERA and a .275 xwOBA suggests an ERA below four as well. This is a pretty strong spot for Maeda as well. The Padres have an 86 wRC+ and 26.6 K% vs RHP this year. Over the last week, San Diego has a 41 wRC+, 27 K% and 6.5 HR/FB. The drawback is hasn’t faced more than 23 batters or thrown more than 95 pitches in a start since the All-Star break, but recent efficiency has still gotten him through six innings in two of his last three starts. In another high upside spot here, an $8K price tag on DraftKings still should allow him to generate plenty of value.