Kirk Nieuwenhuis Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
RHBs have hit the ball hard 35% of the time against Straily since last year
Dan Straily has walked 10 of his last 51 batters with 11 runs and five HRs over his last 13.1 innings. A .245 BABIP and 79.2 LOB% has kept his 3.88 ERA about a run below his estimators. RHBs have just a .311 wOBA, but a 35.0 Hard% against him over the last two years and that's something daily fantasy players may be able to exploit with a hot lineup. Only Chris Carter, Kirk Niewenhuis and Orlando Arcia have a wRC+ below 120 or a hard hit rate below 35% over the last week. Ryan Braun (123 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a strong OF play tonight. While Keon Broxton (82 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP) is an interesting one on FanDuel for less than $3K. He has hit the ball hard most often over the last week (54.6%). Jonathan Villar (109 wRC+, .138 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been hitting for more power recently and is in a nice spot to add to his 53 SBs tonight.
Jason Hammel is projected to be today's most popular pitcher on either site
Jason Hammel has a league average 20.5 K% with a 3.14 ERA and is facing an offense with a 25.7 K% vs RHP, so it's no surprise that our Projected Ownership page has him as the most popular pitcher on either site for less than $9K. He's certainly deserving of serious consideration, but there are certainly reasons to consider fading him with this type of ownership as well.. A 79.8% strand rate has his estimators a run above his estimators and while he's striking out batters at an average rate, he's walking them at an average rate too. The Brewers may strike out a ton, but they also have a 10% walk rate and 16.5 HR/FB at home with each of those marks only a bit lower vs RHP. Players not in on Hammel can certainly take a look at Kirk Nieuwenhuis (98 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bumped up to the two spot. He costs just $2.4K on FanDuel and LHBs have a 33.5 Hard% against Hammel since last season.
Carlos Martinez hasn't had a SwStr above 6.3% in five starts.
Carlos Martinez has the fifth best GB rate (56.1%) in baseball, but that's essentially what you're being asked to pay $10K for tonight because his SwStr has crated over the last month to 5.8% and hasn't been above 6.3% in any of his last five starts. He's been extremely fortunate to have even an 18.4 K% over that span. The Brewers (25.4 K% at home and vs RHP) may help him keep it there, but you have to wonder if that's worth $10K in a dangerous park. LHBs have hit him well since last season (.326 wOBA, 32.5 Hard%) and though the Brewers don't have a lot of potency in that area, there are a couple of bats to consider. Kirk Nieuwenhuis is a low priced OF bat with some power (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP this season) and Jonathan Villar (108 wRC+) could cause some problems atop the lineup, but probably won't be running much on Molina. Carlos Martinez should still end up with fine results against a predominantly RH lineup, but you have to question that price tag with a severe lack of swings and misses over the last month.
LHBs have a .386 wOBA and 38.6 Hard% against Vogelsong since last season
Though LHBs have hit Ryan Vogelsong much better than RHBs since last season (.386 wOBA, 38.6 Hard% vs .287 wOBA, 28.3 Hard%), Chris Carter (100 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be a bat worth taking a chance on with a 250 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard% at home tonight. A cheaper player that may be worth looking at is Kirk Nieuwenhuis (97 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP since 2015). This is a league average bat with some power costing $3.6K or less on either site. Jonathan Villar (107 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is much more expensive, but should be able to run against Cervelli if he gets on.
LHBs have a .353 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% against Chad Kuhl, who gets a park downgrade in Milwaukee
Chad Kuhl has a 3.62 ERA over a run below his estimators due to a .267 BABIP and 8.3 HR/FB, but has a perfectly average 31.7 Hard% and gets a major park downgrade traveling to Milwaukee tonight. He has just a 14.5 K%, so there should be plenty of balls in play tonight and an interesting Milwaukee lineup in a spot where they may be able to run a little. The main beneficiary is leadoff man Jonathan Villar (108 wRC+ vs RHP this season), who has 50 SBs. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (98 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this year) hasn't been bad and costs $3.6K or less on either site. LHBs have a .353 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% against Kuhl so far this season, while RHBs are at .245 and 28.3%. Captain Kirk might be the best bet for a HR tonight, though we're not completely writing the red hot Chris Carter off (97 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP this season, 224 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days).
RHBs have a career .368 wOBA against Chad Bettis, Keon Broxton has a 207 wRC+ & 64.3 Hard% last seven days
Chad Bettis has occasionally garnered some consideration outside of Colorado and despite still being in one of the most hitter friendly environments tonight, looks to be in a strong spot against an offense with a 25.5 K% vs RHP. However, his own strikeout rate has cratered in recent starts, exceeding three in just one of his last five starts with a 9.2 BB%. He’s also a reverse split guy (RHBs .368 career wOBA) and though we have to take Coors into consideration there, he’s facing an offense that leans predominantly right-handed even if the Brewers are playing Gennett and Nieuwenhuis tonight. The Brewers only have two above average bats against RHP in Braun (125 wRC+, .218 ISO since 2015) and Villar (111 wRC+ since 2015), but do have two red hot RHBs who might be interesting tonight. Chris Carter (96 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2015) his HRs in bunches and has a 175 wRC+ over the last week. Keon Broxton might be the sneaky name out of the second slot tonight. He has just an 85 RC+ and .176 ISO in just 85 career PAs vs RHP. He has also stolen 17 bases this season and has a 207 wRC+ with a 64.3 Hard% over the last week.
The Brew Crew aim to split this four game series as they take on Roberto Hernandez - Ryan Braun sits
The Brewers snapped a three game losing streak with a 4-3 win over the Braves last night and will look to make it two straight as they once again host Atlanta in the finale of this four game series. Roberto Hernandez has struggled to retire left-handed batters his entire career (.352 career wOBA allowed to lefties), giving Scooter Gennett a significant fantasy boost as he slots into the #3 hole and Kirk Nieuwenhuis at #5. Jonathan Villar and Chris Carter are once again fine options and Keon Broxton has been swinging the bat well since being recalled from AAA and slots into the #7 spot this afternoon making him a viable value play. Ryan Braun and Martin Maldonado both get the afternoon off.
Brewers offense in a great spot versus Braden Shipley
Shipley will only be making the third start of his big league career tonight as he takes on the Brewers at home in hitter-friendly Chase Field. We obviously have a very limited sample size to properly judge Shipley but it hasn't been good to this point. Shipley has done a decent job keeping the ball on the ground (51.4% GB%), however, most of his struggles stem from a high walk rate (10.2%) and astronomical hard contact rate (47.2%). This puts the Brewers offense firmly in play as an under the radar option. Ryan Braun (130 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP) is far and away the top option in play for this young Milwaukee lineup. The other best options to consider for stacks are Jonathan Villar (108 wRC+, .340 wOBA vs RHP) and Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.198 ISO vs RHP). Chris Carter (.230 ISO vs RHP) is always in play in plus matchups given his multiple home run upside on any given night.
Ryan Braun scratched;
Braun has been scratched from the Brewers lineup with right side tightness. Hernan Perez moves to third in the lineup and Kirk Nieuwenhuis replaces Braun in the OF and will bat 5th.
Chris Carter sits out as Braden Shipley makes his major league debut
Braden Shipley is a former 15th overall pick back in 2013, who has disappointed at the higher levels with just a 17.8 K% in 156 AA innings last year, followed by a 15.5 K% in 119 AAA innings this season. The Brewers have a league high 26.2 K% vs RHP, but the absence of Chris Carter probably drops that slightly tonight. He had about a 1.3 GB/FB in the minors this season, without much of a platoon split in his power numbers (four HRs to LHBs, three to RHBs), so while it's not immediately obvious whether attacking with a weak lineup is a good idea or not, Ryan Braun (121 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains an option, while Kirk Nieuwenhuis (92 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP) may have a bit more value batting 5th for less than $4K on either site. He has a 313 wRC+ and 71.4 Hard% over the last week.