Kolby Allard Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Potentially high upside matchups on tonight’s nine game slate go to Chase De Jong (vs Braves), Kolby Allard (vs Tigers), Matt Moore (at Cubs), Mike Minor (vs Reds), Tylor Megill (vs Brewers) and Wily Peralta (at Rangers). A couple of these are easy passes. Since April, Moore has allowed just three earned runs over 12.1 innings, but has struck out just seven of 49 batters over this span with a 7.0 SwStr%. ERA and estimators are all well above five. The Cubs have a 26.1 K% vs LHP, but the wind is blowing out at Wrigley tonight. Peralta has struck out just eight of 58 batters (though five of 20 Indians in his last start) with 52.3% of his contact on the ground, but at a 92.3 mph EV. The results (3.21) far outpace estimators around five, due to a .190 BABIP. The first four in the projected lineup for the Rangers all exceed a 27 K% vs LHP since 2020, but Peralta carries more risk than upside. With an 11.7 K-BB%, 32.2 GB% and 90.5 mph EV through six starts, De Jong has a 5.65 ERA that most estimators agree with even if only the 5.68 DRA is higher. Ironically, despite the contact profile, a 4.56 xERA is his most optimistic number. If you really need a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, he costs just $5.6K against a projected lineup that includes five batters above a 25 K% since last year (plus the pitcher’s spot) in a decent park, but this could easily go horribly for him.

Minor has allowed 14 runs over his last 10 innings. Sure, he’s been BABIP’d (.395), but has also struck out just three of his last 52 batters in Texas and Boston. Opponents have a 95+ Z-Contact% in each of these two starts, though no other patterns exist, as his pitch usage in each of the starts was vastly different. All estimators are above four for the season, but still well below his 5.33 ERA with a respectable 16.1 K-BB%, while stranding just 65.1% of runners. The positives in this matchup are that the Reds have an 84 wRC+ vs LHP and 12.0 HR/FB on the road, while a shift from Cincinnati to Kansas City is about as far south as you can go on the power spectrum concerning park factors for home runs. The projected lineup for the Reds includes four batters above a 25 K% vs LHP, but they do gain a DH tonight. Within $200 of $7.5K on either site, Minor may have some value, but recent performance certainly makes him more of a risk here.

Allard and Megill may be the most interesting names on the list. The latter has started two games for the Mets, both against the Braves, striking out 12 of 40 (10.2 SwStr%) with two home runs and four walks over 9.1 innings. Half of his 24 batted balls have been on the ground. An April scouting report by Fangraphs suggested a 35+ Future Value grade and questioned whether he’d ever be a useful major league pitcher, but did admit a velocity increase from 2019. His 20.0 K-BB% over 14.1 AAA innings is the same as it has been since being called up after previously dominating AA over 26 innings (33.7 K-BB%). The secondaries have been excellent in his two starts (slider 21 SwStr%, 57 GB% & changeup 28 SwStr%, 50 GB%). The Brewers have an 89 wRC+ and 25.4 K% vs RHP with everyone in the projected lineup exceeding a 21 K% vs RHP since 2020. There are a few concerns here though. First, the Milwaukee offense has been clicking recently (136 wRC+ last seven days). Second, Weather Edge suggests a potential boost to bats at City Field tonight (though that could change). Lastly, Megill isn’t as cheap as we’d probably expect to see him on DraftKings, but is below $7.5K.

In six starts since entering the rotation, Allard has a respectable 20.8 K% with just a 4.0 BB% and as many home runs surrendered as walks issued. The 3.66 ERA is about a half run below estimators over that span, due to a .236 BABIP, but nobody is going to complain if he turns into a capable fourth starter. Back of the rotation lefties have turned into front of the rotation pitchers against the Tigers this year (84 wRC+, 28.5 K%). Another factor in Allard’s favor is that Texas has been a fairly negative run environment with the roof closed. For $8K, Allard may be an option on either site.

Kolby Allard has allowed two runs over his last 13 innings with 12 Ks. He’s somehow managed to allow just one HR through five starts without pitching in a single power suppressing environment. This is not sustainable, even with 2.5% Barrels/BBE, but he’s induced a 29.2 IFFB% along with a 15.1 K-BB%. Estimators match a 4.33 ERA, while his wOBA and xwOBA also match at .292. Allard is on the road in another power friendly environment, but he’s also facing a very poor offense. The Orioles have a 92 wRC+ and 18.2 K-BB% vs LHP. They do have a few bats in the lineup with some power vs LHP, but he’s actually been slightly better against RHBs, holding them to a wOBA and xwOBA below .280 and there are certainly some strikeouts in this lineup. Allard won’t sustain his extremely low HR rate, but this may not be the spot where you’d expect regression to crash in on him either. He’s faced at least 24 batters in each of his last four starts and is reasonably priced at $7.7K on either site.

Allard has been a mixed bag over 3 starts this year, posting a 6.60 ERA, 3.88 FIP and 5.01 xFIP with a 10.1% K-BB, 0.60 HR/9 and 9.8% SwStr. Per Statcast, he has allowed just a .291 xwOBA with a very impressive 2.3% barrel rate and 88 MPH aEV. It’s tough to draw much from a 15 inning sample, and Allards AAA stat-line of a 4.17 ERA / 4.36 xFIP, 13.3% K-BB and 1.23 HR/9 doesn’t necessarily jump off the page. However, Allard does get a nice matchup tonight in Chicago to face a White Sox team that has a 5th-worst .304 xwOBA vs. LHP on the year. The White Sox also have a league-worst .283 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Also working in Allard’s favor tonight will be catcher Jose Trevino, who is considered to be one of the better pitch framers in baseball. The most attractive part of Allard tonight is his price; he’ll cost just $6.6k on Fanduel and $7.8k on Fanduel. The White Sox currently have a 4.75 implied total tonight vs. Allard and the Rangers. Allard does not figure to see too much ownership.