Kris Bryant Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A 13 game slate that includes Coors sees the Rockies with top implied run line (5.97), about half a run removed from the rest of the slate (Blue Jays 5.44) with four other offenses reaching a five run team total and five more above four and a half. The Rockies have been very good against LHP this year (109 wRC+, 18.7 K%) and that pushes them to the top of the board tonight. They are the only offense to feature a trio of top 10 projected bats by PlateIQ tonight against Jose Quintana. The Pirates must be thrilled with what they’ve gotten from Quintana and what they’re going to get FOR him. Maybe they should have even considered having him skip Coors to keep his numbers up. He’s struck out batters at a league average rate (21.5%) with good control (7.4 BB%) and an 86.7 mph EV. Perhaps the Pirates are contributing to his success by limiting his workload. Quintana has only completed six innings four times. Non-FIP estimators (8.2 HR/FB) are above his 3.59 ERA by about half a run (although an isolated 4.46 DRA seems to hate him). RHBs do have a .319 wOBA, but .355 xwOBA against Quintana this year and once he exits, the Pittsburgh bullpen has a bottom five 4.34 xFIP over the last 30 days. Kris Bryant (134 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP this year), Connor Joe (132 wRC+, .147 ISO) and C.J. Cron (94 wRC+, .225 ISO) are all top projected bats tonight, but every RHB in the projected Colorado lineup exceeds 100 wRC+ against southpaws this year except for Cron.

While Ronald Acuna Jr. (150 wRC+, 220 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top projected bat on the board against Patrick Corbin (RHBs .371 wOBA, .396 xwOBA), the Blue Jays are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected bats. Zack Greinke tied his season high with five strikeouts last time out, facing just 19 Guardians, only the hardest team to strike out in the league. He still only has a 12.5 K% and has gone six innings just twice this year. Greinke has also been getting barreled up pretty regularly over his last six games (10.3%) with multiple home runs in three of those starts. You can still count on him to throw strikes (4.5 BB%) and even get hitters to swing when he doesn’t (29.5 Z-O-Swing%), but there’s just not enough bat missing ability left. A 4.52 ERA is in line with a 4.51 FIP, but below all additional estimators. Although batters from either side of the plate have hit him well, he is now firmly a reverse splitter over the last several years (RHBs .331 wOBA, .389 xwOBA against him this year) and that spells additional trouble against this predominantly right-handed lineup. You may have guessed that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (127 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP this year) and George Springer (131 wRC+, .243 ISO) are projected to do the most damage.

You also may be wondering why the visiting team at Coors hasn’t shown up. It’s because they’re the Pirates (88 wRC+ vs RHP). Despite batters from either side of the plate between a .349 and .374 wOBA and xwOBA against German Marquez this year, Daniel Vogelbach (153 wRC+, .280 ISO) is the only top 10 projected Pittsburgh bat.

The one thing to emphasize above all else on Friday night’s slate, especially when considering offense, is weather. And none of it is about rain. The two New York teams (Mets & Yankees) are the only teams above five implied runs tonight. The Mets (5.19) are at Coors tonight, but a snowstorm (yes…snow…near the end of May after it was 80 degrees there yesterday) puts this game in serious doubt. That would also wipe out the third highest run total on the board (Rockies 4.81). The Yankees (5.07) are pretty safe at home tonight against the White Sox, but this isn’t nearly the best run or power environment on the board (at least according to Weather Edge). Several parks get a double digit percentage increase in terms of runs, home runs or both, due to some extremely hitter friendly weather in spots like Philadelphia, Cleveland and more.

Currently, Aaron Judge (170 wRC+, .313 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the top projected batter on the board (PlateIQ). He doesn’t need the assist of heat and wind against Dallas Keuchel, who still generates a ton of weak ground balls (55.7 GB%, 87.4 mph EV), but with just a 0.8 K-BB% through seven starts. A 3.99 xERA is nearly a full run below his next lowest estimator (4.81 xFIP). RHBs have a .356 wOBA and .378 xwOBA against him since last season. The red hot Giancarlo Stanton (145 wRC+, .232 ISO) joins Judge as a top of the board bat by projections tonight. Both exceed a 190 wRC+ overall in the last 30 days.

The Rockies, but not the Mets, both have two bats projected inside the top 10 tonight, both right-handed against Carlos Carrasco. Same-handed batters have a .349 wOBA against him since last year, though Carrasco has been much better than a mostly lost season in 2021. He has had a couple of blow ups with just a 21.1 K%, but the good news is that a 9.9 SwStr% is his season low with a 13% mark on the season suggesting more strikeouts should be coming. He’s walked just seven batters with the same amount of barrels allowed (5.7%). A 3.73 ERA is above all of his estimators, which could drop further with an increase in his strikeout rate. Projections favor Kris Bryant (115 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP since LY) and C.J. Cron (127 wRC+, .142 ISO) against him, while Brandon Nimmo (135 wRC+, .156 ISO) is the highest projected Met (in fact, top three on the board) against German Marquez (LHBs within a point of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last year). Remember though, this game is currently coded RED in Kevin’s forecast.

Only one other team currently features multiple batters with top 10 point projections and it’s probably not a surprise that it’s the Angels, despite a moderate 4.29 run team total. That’s because Shohei Ohtani (147 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Mike Trout (206 wRC+, .368 ISO) are nearly always top of the board projections even against an extreme ground baller like Paul Blackburn (3.5 BB%, 50.9 GB%, 3.7% Barrels/BBE), whose worst estimator is a 3.42 DRA. He also has a fairly large split by actual results (LHBs .350 wOBA, RHBs .291), though Statcast sees it much closer (LHBs .332 xwOBA, RHBs .321).

At the end of March, news was broken that MLB will employ humidors in all 30 parks this season. Like most Manfred regime innovations, it’s an imperfect solution to a problem that doesn’t exist, but at least they’re telling everyone up front this year. In recent seasons, the league covertly placed humidors in several stadiums, including Boston, Seattle and New York (NL) in 2020 and then Houston, Miami, Texas and St Louis last year. Colorado and Arizona had previously been using the technology.

What does this mean? The intention is to close the gap on park, or more accurately, environmental effects, bringing everything closer to neutral. Less park to park variance. Although park factors will certainly still exist, we may have to take previously existing ones with a grain of salt for a while until the new norms are established.

What this also means is that Colorado bats could become even more valuable. As other parks trend back towards the middle (think of it as regression), Coors has used the humidor for years, longer than any other MLB park, and is still an extreme offensive environment. It’s one park we can be sure won’t be affected by the changes occurring in most others this season.

While one Vladimir may be the top bat on the board, another one may be unintentionally providing much more offense. That’s Vladimir Gutierrez, who loses the Wrigley weather lottery tonight with near 90 degree temperatures and a double digit wind blowing out to right-center field tonight. To be honest though, it’s not like major league life was ever going really well for Vladimir Gutierrez, but recently, it’s gotten even worse. He’s struck out just one of his last 44 batters with four walks and three home runs. He’s now allowed 11 home runs in 10 starts and while occasionally getting outside Cincinnati should help (though not the case tonight), he’s still allowed 10.3% Barrels/BBE. However, his xERA (4.88) is the only estimator below his 4.97 ERA with just a 5.0 K-BB%. While LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .330, it’s actually RHBs that have done most the damage (.368 wOBA, .341 xwOBA). Patrick Wisdom (136 wRC+, .340 ISO vs RHP in 2021), Kris Bryant (108 wRC+, .186 ISO) and Willson Contreras (105 wRC+, .175 ISO), though LHB Rafael Ortega (126 wRC+, .158 ISO) could provide the most value in the lineup with the second highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.74) for less than $2.5K on either site.

Don’t sleep on the Cincinnati lineup in this spot either. Adbert Alzolay has allowed multiple homers in five of his last six starts and LHBs have a .405 wOBA (.396 xwOBA) against him this season. Unfortunately, the lineup only projects three of them for the Reds, but Joey Votto (154 wRC+, .275 ISO), Jesse Winker (173 wRC+, .281 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (102 wRC+, .198 ISO) should all play well here, even with the Reds implied for just 4.26 runs.

A good time should be had in Detroit by Cubs’ bats tonight. Weather conditions aren’t expected to be the most hitter friendly, but they couldn’t ask for a better matchup. Tarik Skubal is coming off his best effort of the season, striking out eight of 21 Twins, bringing him up to a 20.8 K% and 10.3 SwStr% for the season. However, he still has a 12.8 BB% and the Twins took him deep twice more too, bringing his season total to 10 HRs allowed with 20.7% of his contact being Barrels this year. He’s generated 17 Barrels and just 18 ground balls. Since Skubal’s call-up last year, RHBs now have a .405 wOBA and .386 xwOBA against him with just a 20.7 GB%. Kris Bryant (184 wRC+, .346 ISO vs LHP since 2019), Willson Contreras (133 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Javier Baez (114 wRC+, .264 ISO) are all major threats tonight and all are above a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. When Skubal exits (generally after two trips through the lineup), the Detroit bullpen has a major league worst 6.51 ERA over the last 30 days and only the Twins (5.32) have a worse FIP (5.27). In addition, one of the few quality arms in this bullpen, Gregory Soto, has pitched in three consecutive games. The Cubs are somewhere in the upper-middle of the board at 4.51 implied runs tonight.

Brett Anderson looks like the kind of pitcher you want to attack on the surface. RHBs have a .325 woBA and .364 xwOBA against him since 2019 and he had just a 15.8 K% last year, which is in line with his career rate. And while there are some additional things we should consider while rostering Chicago bats here, including Anderson’s heavy ground ball lean (51.4% vs RHBs, higher vs LHBs last year), his likely smaller workload and Milwaukee’s great bullpen and strong defense, the weather at Wrigley tonight just demands your attention. Winds are blowing out to left-center, further favoring RHBs, and those who have access to Weather Edge (premium subscription required) are seeing some eye popping numbers. Despite overall struggles in recent seasons, Kris Bryant has still brought the hammer against southpaws with a 163 wRC+ and .299 ISO vs LHP since 2019. He’s also started the season hot with a 230 wRC+ against Pittsburgh pitching this weekend.