Kyle Freeland Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Nats and Rox are playing two today, so game two lineups are not yet confirmed, but it’s a good bet that the Nationals will be loading up with RHBs against Kyle Freeland in the night cap. Since being recalled from the minors, Freeland has allowed five runs in four innings in both his starts and has just a 9.5 K-BB% with a 21 HR/FB, 5.12 SIERA, 6.26 DRA, .368 xwOBA and 10.2% Barrels/BBE that can’t all be blamed on Coors. Over the last calendar year, RHBs have a .342 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The projected lineup for the Nationals features six RHBs. Among the first five, Brian Dozier (109 wRC+) is the only one below a 120 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year. Anthony Rendon (144 wRC+, .288 ISO), Howie Kendrick (162 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Victor Robles (133 wRC+, .214 ISO) add quite a bit of power to the equation as well. The Nationals find themselves at 5.83 implied runs tonight, behind only the Dodgers on a 16 team board.

It’s been quite the fall for Freeland, who went from receiving Cy Young votes last year to pitching to a 7.39 ERA, 5.34 xFIP and 5.18 SIERA this year. Freeland was sent down to AAA earlier in the year and it doesn’t seem like he figured much out, as he posted an 8.80 ERA and 5.01 xFIP with an 8.4% K-BB over 30 innings. In his first start back from AAA on 7/13 Freeland only lasted 4 innings, giving up 5 earned runs, 9 hits and striking out 3. The Yankees lineup looks as dangerous as it has all season, and just about the whole lineup is in play vs. Freeland. Aaron Judge (.434 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), DJ LeMahieu (.390), Luke Voit (.383), Edwin Encarnacion (.376), Mike Tauchman (.345) and Gary Sanchez (.345) have been the Yankees’ best bats vs. LHP this year. Hicks, Torres and Urshela all have an xwOBA vs. LHP under .300 on the year but are still very much in play. Considering the great match-up and sky-high total, Yankees bats are pretty affordable, with Aaron Judge being the only hitter over $5k on Draftkings. Of course, Yankees hitters figure to see very high ownership tonight across all contests.

The Orioles face Kyle Freeland today in Coors field in what looks to be a great spot. Freeland has not been nearly as effective as he was in his breakout 2018; he currently has a 6.02 ERA / 5.23 xFIP / 5.00 SIERA, all three numbers are much higher than they were in 2018. His hard contact is up 12 percentage points to 43.6% and his FB rate has risen 5 points to 40.2%. He also has an ugly .364 xwOBA allowed with a 89.2 aEV and 10.3% barrel rate. Hanser Alberto (161wRC+, .172 ISO vs. LHP since 2018), Jonathan Villar (68 wRC+, .131 ISO), Trey Mancini (100 wRC+, .177 ISO), Renato Nunez (102 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Keon Broxton (55 wRC+, .077 ISO) project as the top 5 hitters in the O’s order. Villar and Broxton have ugly numbers at the plate but are always a threat for a steal or two. Nunez has been the hottest Oriole hitter with a .460 xwOBA over the past 10 days. With the exception of Trey Mancini ($5.5k), all Orioles projected hitters are under $5k on Draftkings. The O’s aren’t a great offense, but their implied total of 4.79 feels low given that they’re playing in Coors and have a matchup versus a struggling starter.

While the Washington Nationals have a very modest 4.43 implied run line at Coors, RHBs still have a .305 wOBA/.324 xwOBA) against Kyle Freeland. That's right around or maybe even a bit better than average, but considering the environment, quality RHBs for the Nationals are still in play here. That includes Victor Robles (226 wRC+ last seven days), Trea Turner (114 wRC+, .134 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (139 wRC+, .276 ISO), who all seem priced up for Coors though.

The Pirates are a contact prone offense. Tonight's confirmed lineup has just a 17.9 K% vs LHP according to PlateIQ. Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland has not exceeded five strikeouts in nine straight starts. A lot of BABIP is going to have to go his way in a park notorious for high BABIPs for this to end up a successful effort for him tonight. It's a bit of a surprise to find the Pirates below five implied runs (4.91) here. For his career, RHBs have a .321 wOBA against Freeland at Coors, despite a 57.4 GB% and 2.3 Hard-Soft%. However, in 2018, RHBs have a 48 GB% and 4.0 Hard-Soft% with a .315 wOBA and six HRs at Coors. He's still generating a lot of weak contact, but needs not as much on the ground and needs to miss more bats in that park. The Pirates will still lead off LH Corey Dickerson (103 wRC+, .115 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Starling Marte has done little against LHP (63 wRC+, .152 ISO) batting second. The most interesting bats here might be the catchers, Francisco Cervelli (113 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Elias Diaz (156 wRC+, .207 ISO), both in the lineup tonight. The one thing we can be fairly certain of is balls being put in play tonight. Without a lot of power though, a Pittsburgh lineup with increasing price tags is going to have to put some hits together, which may not be too hard against a defense that has allowed a .302 BABIP this year. Freeland somehow has a .250 BABIP and 91.2 LOB% at home this year.

Five strikeouts in his last start is the highest total for Kyle Freeland since early June. After Matt Carpenter (144 wRC+, .276 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), the Cardinals will throw seven straight RHBs at him with only Marcell Ozuna (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) and Dexter Fowler (97 wRC+, .167 ISO) below a .210 ISO against southpaws over the last 365 days. Batters from that side of the plate have a .329 wOBA with 24 HRs against Freeland since last season, a .337 wOBA with 13 of those homers away from Coors. Yadier Molina (122 wRC+, .274 ISO) has the top highest ISO among RHBs against southpaws and costs just $2.9K on FD.

Kyle Freeland is not a bad pitcher and has even held LHBs to a .299 wOBA at Coors in his major league career, but he has a few problems. Most obviously, he pitches at Coors. Also, he's facing the hottest lineup in baseball since the break (151 wRC+). Lastly, the A's have just one LHBs. While Freeland had impressively limited opponents to two runs or less in six straight starts before allowing four last time out, he has not struck out more than four in any of those seven outings and has not been above a 33 GB% in any of his last three. Three teams (the Yankees, Rockies, and Red Sox) are above the 5.66 implied run line for the A's, but this is a lineup that should do some damage. Khris Davis (112 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the immediate standout bat with a 231 wRC+ and 72.7 Hard% over the last week, but Matt Chapman (132 wRC+, .205 ISO) is the second cheapest bat on DraftKings ($4.3K) and bats second tonight with a 258 wRC+ since the break. The only RHB in the lineup below a 90 wRC+ or .150 ISO vs LHP is eighth place hitter Jonathan Lucroy (76 wRC+, .084 ISO).

The Coors game is only available on the afternoon slate for DraftKings or full day on FanDuel and lineups have not yet been released, but at 5.94 implied runs, almost a full run above any other team this afternoon, Colorado bats against lefty Steven Matz are a no-brainer. Matz has been pitching well, but still has just a 7.8 SwStr% and 5.05 FIP on the season. RHBs have a .351 wOBA and xwOBA with 22 of the 23 HRs he's allowed since last season. Nolan Arenado (214 wRC+, .384 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Trevor Story (156 wRC+, .350 ISO) and DJ LeMahieu (141 wRC+, .239 ISO) are the top bats on the board. Ian Desmond (104 wRC+, .240 ISO) has a 198 wRC+ over the last week. Kyle Freeland (20.7 K%, 3.89 FIP, .312 xwOBA) faces the Mets, who have a 73 wRC+, 25.9 K% and 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP, but a team 133 wRC+, 11.3 BB% and 20.8 HR/FB over the last week. Their 5.06 implied run line is behind only the Rockies. RHBs have a 55.3 GB% against him since last season, but with fewer strikeouts and are within three points of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA. Asdrubal Cabrera (154 wRC+, .142 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be the top bat in the lineup if he is active (appeared to injure his arm, but stayed in the game last night). Todd Frazier (118 wRC+, .333 ISO) and Wilmer Flores (98 wRC+, . 234 ISO) would be other top RHBs. Considering the 36.2 GB% for LHBs against Freeland, Brandon Nimmo (92 wRC+, .138 ISO) and Michael Conforto (84 wRC+, .213 ISO) remain in play as well. LHBs have a .310 wOBA (.285 xwOBA) against Freeland since last year and both of those guys exceed a 195 wRC+ over the last week. Players may have to sacrifice Luis Severino if wanting to capitalize on Coors this afternoon.

The Giants have a 5.02 implied run line that's third best on the board at Coors tonight. While the Giants have a number of hitters who hit LHP well and some more who should play up at Coors, the issue is that Kyle Freeland has performed admirably against RHBs at Coors (.310 career wOBA, 60.1 GB%, -1.1 Hard-Soft%). If we consider just this season, the ground ball rate is down to 46.3%, but the -14 Hard-Soft% and .233 wOBA are improvements. These are still small sample sizes, but perhaps enough to give players pause. Never the less, without a right-handed batters above $4.2K on either site, some exposure to this matchup is probably warranted. The top half of the lineup, including Gorkys Hernandez (105 wRC+, .115 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Buster Posey (150 wRC+, .195 ISO), Andrew McCutchen (150 wRC+, .272 ISO) and Evan Longoria (112 wRC+, .211 ISO) are the best candidates.