Kyle Garlick Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Houston lineup may include the most top projected bats on a small slate, but if you’re paying up for pitching tonight, which you probably should, the Minnesota Twins have the fourth best implied run line tonight (4.78) and project for a ton of value. Daniel Lynch started the season well enough and still has a respectable 11.5 K-BB%, but has a 13.9 K% (4.4 K-BB%) over his last six starts, has allowed 14 barrels (11.4%) over his last seven starts and has allowed at least three earned runs in 10 of his last 15. All estimators are below his 5.14 ERA (.335 BABIP), but his xERA (5.07) not by much (90.7 mph EV, 46.2% 95+ mph EV). He no longer has a single above average pitch, according to Statcast, while batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Despite batting from the left-hand side, a min-priced Jake Cave (69 wRC+ vs LHP this year) projects as a top two value on either site with a min-priced Nick Gordon (70 wRC+) also projecting as the top FanDuel value (10th best on DraftKings for $2.9K). From the right-hand side, Kyle Garlick (138 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Gio Urshela (116 wRC+, .164 ISO) project as top values on both sites for less than $3K. A min-priced Gilberto Celestino (62 wRC+) also projects as a top DraftKings value.

A pair of right-handed Marlins also project as top 10 FanDuel values against Noah Syndergaard, whose strikeout rate has dropped to 13.2% over seven starts with the Phillies, which makes the 9.8 K-BB% actually look impressive by that standard. The attempt to rediscover the hard slider in Philly seems unsuccessful with a 4.61 ERA/3.38 FIP/4.28 xFIP combo since the trade. All non-FIP estimators exceed his season 4.09 ERA by less than half a run. RHBs have a .302 wOBA and .321 xwOBA against him, but Jon Berti (107 wRC+) and Miguel Rojas (79 wRC+) cost $2.6K or less.

A trio of Kansas City bats also project for top DraftKings value against Dylan Bundy, who doesn’t walk anyone, but has struck out just 11 of his last 124 batters. He actually fares better against batters from the left-hand side (.302 wOBA, .304 xwOBA this year), but Vinnie Pasquantino (109 wRC+, .187 ISO), Drew Waters (73 wRC+, .135 ISO) and Michael Massey (107 wRC+) all cost $2.4K or less.

You’re paying for deGrom (or even Cole) and you need value bats. Even if you’re on DraftKings, no matter who your SP2 is. Projections suggest you can find a lot of those in Minnesota tonight, mostly on the home team side. Kris Bubic has both struck out and walked eight of his last 90 batters. With just a 6.8 K-BB% and 45.7% 95+ mph EV, his 5.40 ERA is probably right where it’s supposed to be and matches his DRA exactly. RHBs have a .331 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against Bubic this year. Four of the top six projected values on FanDuel are Twins, starting with the top projected bat on the board, Gio Urshela (101 wRC+, .144 ISO vs LHP this season). He is followed by Gary Sanchez (72 wRC+, .144 ISO), Kyle Garlick (148 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Nick Gordon (81 wRC+) all for $2.2K or less. You may notice that Gordon is a weak hitting lefty, but batters from that side exceed a .440 wOBA and xwOBA against Bubic this year. Garlick ($2.3K) is also the top projected DraftKings value, while a min-priced Gilberto Celestino (61 wRC+) is top 10 as well.

FanDuel projections also include a trio of White Sox among the top 10 values, including Gavin Sheets (110 wRC+, .182 ISO), who doubles as a top projected bat and value for $2.6K on both sites. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .346 and .365 wOBA and xwOBA against Chard Kuhl this season. Ever since shutting out the Dodgers on three hits at Coors, he has neither gone beyond five innings, nor allowed fewer than three runs in nine straight starts, over which he has a 9.02 ERA/8.16 FIP/5.42 xFIP. Yoan Moncada (58 wRC+) and Yasmani Grandal (43 wRC+) project much better than this year’s numbers and as top 10 FanDuel values for $2.5K or less as well.

DraftKings projections also like the minimum price tags on Alex Call (155 wRC+, .259 ISO) and C.J. Abrams (96 wRC+) against Dean Kremer (LHBs .271 wOBA, .310 xwOBA – RHBs .326 wOBA, .335 xwOBA). The same is true for Chad Pinder (106 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Nick Allen (82 wRC+) against Cole Ragans, who has walked more batters than he’s struck out and surrendered a .371 wOBA and .351 xwOBA to LHBs.

The Twins have a 4.53 implied run line that’s second best on the board. They are also facing a LHP. When the Twins face a LHP, Kyle Garlick is generally projected to bat somewhere in the top half of the lineup. This year, he’s been hitting cleanup against southpaws. Kyle Garlick smashes LHP (167 wRC+, .342 ISO). That is his job. In fact, that really is his only job. Being on the short end of a platoon keeps his price low. Entirely too low. Kyle Garlick costs $2.5K or less on either site. Kyle Garlick is the top projected value by PlateIQ on DraftKings tonight. Spice up your lineup with some Garlick. Jose Miranda (71 wRC+, .222 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings against Daniel Lynch (RHBs > .360 wOBA and xwOBA career). He’s currently the third best projected value on DK. Ryan Jeffers (98 wRC+, .174 ISO) is actually a better projected value than either on FanDuel ($2.1K).

DraftKings projections also find nearly half the Oakland lineup among the top 10 projected values. Martin Perez has allowed nine earned runs (13 total) over 49.1 innings, partially because he hasn’t allowed a home run yet, but he’s also allowed only four barrels (2.9%) with a 55.8 GB% and career high 13.6 K-BB%. The Rangers are also letting him go. Perez has six straight Quality Starts, failing to record a seventh inning out in just one of his last five. The home runs are going to come. Some of them at least, but his worst estimator is still just a 3.70 SIERA. That said, RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .340 against him since last season and Oakland bats are incredibly cheap on DraftKings. None of Jed Lowrie (92 wRC+ vs LHP since LY), Elvis Andrus (51 wRC+), Kevin Smith (135 wRC+, .222 ISO) or Chad Pinder (123 wRC+, .223 ISO) cost more than $2.5K. You may not be wrong to have some skepticism about this matchup after Perez just shut out the Astros, but projections are generally regressing to the much larger and longer picture.

FanDuel has multiple Red Sox among the top projected values. Bobby Dalbec (115 wRC+, .239 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Christian Arroyo (99 wRC+, .165 ISO) are projected to bat near the bottom of the lineup against Dallas Keuchel (batters from either side above a .350 wOBA against since last year), so perhaps a wrap-around or more creative stack is in order. Keuchel is still generating ground balls on more than half of contact, so players definitely want to stack, rather than pick out individual bats here because he’s also walked more batters than he’s struck out.

Projections on both sites also favor a pair of Tigers against rookie southpaw spot starter Konnor Pilkington. FanDuel gravitates towards middle of the order bats like Javier Baez (143 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Jeimer Candelario (104 wRC+, .267 ISO) for $2.5K or less as great potential values. DraftKings favors Daz Cameron (47 wRC+) along with Candelario, also $2.5K or less.

For those in search of value bats tonight, Kansas City appears to be a great place to look, as the visiting Twins are the only team to project multiple top 10 point per dollar values on both sites tonight. In fact, half of the top 10 point per dollar projections on DraftKings are made up of either Twins or Royals. Kyle Garlick (159 wRC+, .351 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is a top two projected value for the ridiculous price of $2K on either site tonight against Daniel Lynch, who has improved his strikeout rate five points to 22.5%, but is still allowing barrels and walks at a greater than 10% clip. A 13.1 SwStr% shows further upside, as he’s getting a top of chases (39.3%), despite throwing his pitches in the strike zone only 39.5% of the time. Regardless, RHBs have mauled him since last year’s call-up (.363 wOBA, .372 xwOBA) and the Twins are expected to bat entirely from that side tonight. Ryan Jeffers (99 wRC+, .174 ISO) on FD ($2.1K) and Gilberto Celestino (57 wRC+, .113 ISO) and Jose Miranda (57 wRC+, .250 ISO) on DK (< $2.3K) join Garlick as top projected values by PlateIQ tonight.

Kyle Isbel (48 wRC+, .074 ISO) and Carlos Santana (99 wRC+, .089 ISO) are batters PlateIQ currently values on DraftKings against Devin Smeltzer, who, in a small sample, has actually looked worse against same-handed (LH) batters since last season (.362 xwOBA). This certainly has more to do with low price tags against an inexperienced pitcher, as you can see from the overall lack of production from these hitters. No other team features multiple top 10 values on DraftKings tonight.

In addition to a pair of Twins, a pair of Red Sox show up among the top projected FanDuel values. Robbie Ray’s strikeouts and velocity have risen in recent starts, but he’s still struggling from a control and contact standpoint. Even including his Cy Young season last year, RHBs have been nearly average against him (.303 wOBA, .308 xwOBA) since 2021. Projections really like the $2.1K or less price tags of Bobby Dalbec (117 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Christian Arroyo (106 wRC+, .170 ISO) tonight. They could pair well with the recently flaming hot Trevor Story (139 wRC+, .314 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (118 wRC+, .200 ISO) tonight.

Very often, players can find value in short side of the platoon righties who generally hit towards the top of the order when they do play against LHP, especially if they have any success against them because these batters are often underpriced, possibly due to their lack of overall playing time. One such batter, who has found himself in this spot many times this year and does so again tonight, is Kyle Garlick (129 wRC+, .263 ISO vs LHP since 2020). Garlick’s cost is still below $3K on either site against Kris Bubic (RHBs .311 wOBA, .337 xwOBA since 2020), which not only benefits him, but also those wishing to stack more expensive Twins like Nelson Cruz (212 wRC+, .313 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (125 wRC+, .172 ISO), which only makes sense, as they’re projected to bat right behind Garlick in a lineup with a 4.75 implied run line that’s tied for third highest on the board.

Bullpens generally have a lot of turnover, so by the time we hit June, including April stats may be somewhat useless because half of the relievers may be different. Using a 30 day rolling average and a combination of ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA reveals the worst pens in the league in May to be the Rockies (5.30), Angels (5.01), Orioles (5.00), Astros (4.90) and Cardinals (4.87). Attacking the Colorado staff at home? Sure. They do have their best pitcher on the mound, but German Marquez still has a 12.8 BB% this year with a .321 BABIP that might just be the price of doing business at Coors. The 4.47 ERA, 4.32 SIERA and 4.35 xERA aren’t that far apart and LHBs have a .316 wOBA (.335 xwOBA) against him since last year with RHBs around .300. An important point here is that despite being tied for the third highest implied run line on the board tonight (4.75), Texas bats are fairly cheap with Nick Solak the most expensive on DraftKings ($4.5K) and only Adolis Garcia (167 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Joey Gallo (130 wRC+ last 30 days) above $3K on FanDuel.

While Andrew Heaney has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (29.1%, 13.1 SwStr%), he also has a 5.24 ERA. Contact neutral estimators are nearly two runs lower (3.58 SIERA), though including the 11.1% Barrels/BBE projects a 4.56 xERA. A 17.6 HR/FB is a bit more than two points above his career rate and the Giants have a 115 wRC+ and 21.9 HR/FB vs LHP. Brandon Crawford is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 110 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. We likely don’t need extra incentive to attack a lefty allowing 9.8% Barrels/BBE with a projected lineup that includes six batters above a .175 ISO vs LHP since 2020 and has the top implied run line on the board (5.04) in Baltimore tonight, but there you have it. Kyle Garlick (117 wRC+, .222 ISO) may be the top value on the board ($3K DK, $2.3K FD).

The Astros are the new team on this list and the Red Sox are interesting here, but Luis Garcia has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (29%, 12.1 SwStr%) with a near league exit velocity and walk and barrel rates. He does have a large split though (LHBs .352 wOBA since 2020), which makes Alex Verdugo (137 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2020) a great value for $3.5K or less on either site. The Dodgers have the second highest implied run line on the board (4.98) because John Gant may have have the most fraudulent ERA in baseball (1.81). His closest estimator is a 4.05 FIP, which is nearly a run below his second lowest estimator (4.97 xERA). He’s sporting a 2.0 K-BB% with a 90.7 mph EV, which seems incredibly dangerous as a visiting pitcher to Dodger Stadium. Every batter in the projected Dodger lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ and .170 ISO vs RHP since 2020. LHBs have a .361 xwOBA against Gant since last year as well. Cody Bellinger has just a 2 wRC+ since returning, but stack whatever lefties Dave Roberts places in the lineup tonight.

Bullpens generally have more turnover than any other part of a baseball team, so it might be a good idea to track their performances using rolling 30 day statistics. If you add up ERA, SIERA, FIP and xFIP, dividing by four, three major league bullpens exceed five over the last month. The Reds (5.58) have been the worst of them all, overtaking the Tigers (5.32) this week. Wade Miley doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but does generate a lot of weak ground balls. Regardless, Jordan Luplow has smashed LHP (174 wRC+, .348 ISO since 2019) and should be cheaply near the top of the lineup tonight.

The spot in Detroit is certainly more interesting tonight though and that’s because Tarik Skubal has a 3.8 K-BB% and 21.4 GB%. Eight of 14 Barrels (19.7%) have left the yard. His pitch mix has changed a bit this year. It’s not working. He has a 9.18 xERA and that’s not even his worst estimator. Not one is below six. In his short career, RHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA. We could be disappointed by the likely absence of Byron Buxton in this spot or simply load up on Nelson Cruz (214 wRC+, .411 ISO vs LHP since 2019) and Mitch Garver (178 wRC+, .370 ISO). If you’re concerning about the price tags, then Garlick (Kyle) is on the value menu tonight. He has a 110 wRC+ and .246 ISO vs LHP and costs just $2.6K or less on either site.

The other terrible bullpen over the last month resides in Kansas City (5.13). The White Sox are dealing with some long term injuries, which have lightened their lineup, but Brad Keller has been shelled this year (13.6 K%, 44.8 GB%, 11.5% Barrels/BBE). Statcast believes Keller has been a bit fortunate in the past, driving his xwOBA up above .320 against batters from either side of the plate. Nick Madrigal (120 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019) doesn’t have any power, but he’s been shifted to the top of the lineup recently and is a cheap bat that should be in the middle of any run scoring in this matchup. Yermin Mercedes (180 wRC+) still costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Additionally, the Diamondbacks (4.94), Rockies (4.90) and Angels (4.85) have all struggled in relief recently.