Leury Garcia Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

On the first full 15 game slate of the season, no stack is projected to reach double digit ownership on either site (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change). In fact, no team reaches even an eight percent ownership projection on FanDuel at this point in time with the Brewers (7.42 Own%) expected to be most popular by a slim margin, while the Royals (9.31 Own%) may end up being the most popular DraftKings stack. With 30 teams on the board, simulations still find the team with the top run line on the board (Blue Jays 5.42) smashing the slate a bit more than 10% of the time with Atlanta (third at 5.08 runs) second, a bit less often than eight percent. The Chicago White Sox separate themselves a bit from the rest of the board in terms of value (14.84%) with no other stack on FanDuel projected above nine percent. Glenn Otto’s strikeout rate is down to 19% this season and his walk rate is out of control (13.2%). Add in 9.6% Barrels/BBE and his best estimator is a 4.79 xFIP. No batter in the projected lineup for the White Sox costs more than $3.3K on FanDuel with prospective leadoff man Leury Garcia costing just $2.1K against a pitcher whom LHBs have a .391 xwOBA against since last year. The Brewers, White Sox and Padres all project a Value% in double digits on DraftKings. What does a full 15 game board that appears to be well spread mean for the top offenses in terms of Leverage Ratings? Read today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

On a steady decline since 2016, Felix currently has a 6.96 ERA / 5.16 xFIP on the year with a 1.56 WHIP, 2.32 HR/9, 43.8% hard contact rate and an 8.9% SwStr over 54 and 1.3 innings in 2019. He spent almost 4 months on the IL with a shoulder problem from May to late August, and since returning on 8/24 has posted an 8.04 ERA with a 4% K-BB, 1.72 WHIP, 2.9 HR/9, 40% hard contact rate and .422 xwOBA allowed. Felix faces the White Sox tonight, who are not a great offense but could provide both some value in cash games and some low-owned upside in GPPs. Yoan Moncada (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jose Abreu (.357), Eloy Jimenez (.346), Tim Anderson (.326), James Mccann (.314), Zack Collins (.299) and Leury Garcia (.264) are all potential options. Zack Collins had a 140 wRC+ / .265 ISO over 367 PA in AAA this year and has upside in the catcher slot at just $2.9k on Draftkings. Leury Garcia isn’t a great hitter, but does mix in a few steals (15 this year) and should leadoff at just $3.8k. Eloy Jimenez is crushing it over the past 2 weeks with a .479 xwOBA, followed closely by Jose Abreu with a .469 mark. The White Sox have currently have a 4.75 implied total, a number I wouldn’t be surprised to see them easily surpass.

Lefty Brock Burke will be making his 2nd career star this afternoon vs. the White Sox after throwing 6 scoreless innings in his debut. Per Fangraphs, Burke has a future value of 40+ and is ranked 23rd prospect in the Rangers organization. Burke did post a respectable 3.18 ERA / 3.25 xFIP over 45 innings in AA this year, but still remains largely unproven and isn’t someone to shy away from. Recently returning Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez to the lineup, the White Sox lineup has some good options for this matchup vs. Burke. Jose Abreu (162 wRC+, .250 ISO vs. LHP this year), Leury Garcia (114 wRC+, .156 ISO), Yolmer Sanchez (109 wRC+, .113 ISO), Tim Anderson (107 wRC+, .110 ISO), Eloy Jimenez (99 wRC+, .220 ISO), Yoan Moncada (95 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Wellington Castillo (84 wRC+, .210 ISO) are all good options this afternoon. Leury Garcia is a nice value, leading off at just $3.9k on Draftkings. Eloy Jimenez is just $4k, while Wellington Castillo is just $3.2k at a shallow catcher position and has a career wRC+ vs. LHP of 124. The White Sox currently have a 4.75 implied total and make for a nice contrarian GPP stack given their very low projected ownership.

The White Sox are priced as though they are facing an ace, but in reality they are facing a pitcher in Vargas that has a 5.21 xFIP, 5.08 SIERA, 42.9% FB rate and 10.5% K-BB. Vargas has the platoon advantage against just one batter in the White Sox lineup tonight in his first start with his new team. The White Sox have been ice cold with a league worst 71 wRC+ over the past 30 days, which will hopefully drive down ownership for this matchup. Jose Abreu (.348 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), James Mccann (.330), Eloy Jimenez (.323), Tim Anderson (.311), and Leury Garcia (.303) are all in play. All White Sox hitters are available under $4k on Draftkings and are also available on Fanduel for $3k or less; they have some solid cash options in the lineup and make for an interesting GPP stack as well, as there is some leverage to be had with Vargas projected as one of the higher-owned pitchers on the slate. The White Sox currently have a 4.23 implied line.

Since returning from the IL on 5/29 James Paxton has made 3 starts, coming against the Padres, Blue Jays and Mets. Despite the decently easy matchups, Paxton has struggled to a 7.15 ERA / 5.96 xFIP / 5.40 SIERA with an ugly 13.5% BB rate, 39.4% hard contact rate and 54.5% FB rate. Paxton’s most recent start was his worst, giving up 6 earned runs over just 2 2/3 innings to the Mets at home. The White Sox have swung the bat well recently with a .329 xwOBA over the past 14 days as a team and are likely to be very low-owned today vs. Paxton and the Yanks. Jose Abreu (.379 xwOBA vs. LHP on the year), Yonder Alonso (.356), James McCann (.355), Eloy Jimenez (.336), Tim Anderson (.335), Leury Garcia (.311) and Yoan Moncada (.287) are all options in the projected lineup versus Paxton. Besides Moncada, all White Sox bats are priced $4.4k or less on Draftkings. Moncada has been by far their hottest hitter with a scorching .503 xwOBA over the past 14 days. The White Sox will also have the benefit of a very hitter friendly umpire in Nic Lentz.

Glenn Sparkman has a 3.77 ERA for the Royals this year over 31 innings, but everything in his profile suggests that number should be much higher. He’s got a 5.09 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA, 8.2% K-BB, 27% Hard-Soft and just a 7.6% SwStr. He’s also sporting a horrendous .371 xwOBA allowed and 92 MPH aEV. Over the past 30 days, Sparkman has a 5.78 xFIP, 6.37 SIERA, 3% K-BB, .425 xwOBA allowed and 93.1 MPH aEV. Yoan Moncada (.399 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jose Abreu (.372), Wellington Castillo (.362), Tim Anderson (.353), Eloy Jimenez (.313) and Yonder Alonso (.301) are all solid options this afternoon vs. Sparkman. Leury Garcia (.273) projects to leadoff and occasionally will steal a base with 7 on the year, he also has a .339 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Castillo, Alonso and Jimenez are all available under $3.5k on Draftkings and project to be in the top-6 of the White Sox order. The White Sox have a 4.89 implied total vs. Sparkman and the Royals this afternoon.

Aaron Sanchez has been incredibly lucky this year with a 3.21 ERA despite a 5.11 xFIP and 5.34 SIERA. Sanchez has a 5.5% K-BB, as well as an 8.3 Barrel%, 89.8 aEV and 43.3% Hard hit rate, all near the bottom of the league per Statcast. His .370 xwOBA ranks 19th worst in the league among 137 qualified starters. Sanchez has been worse vs. LHB in his career with a .356 xwOBA vs. LHB compared to a .314 xwOBA vs. RHB. Yonder Alonso (.342 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Yoan Moncada (.338) and Charlie Tilson (.294) all are in the middle of the order for the White Sox and are good options. Moncada is enjoying a breakout year with a .419 xwOBA vs. RHP so far. Also a LHB, Leury Garcia (.279 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018) will lead off and has run more this year with 5 steals in 2019. Jose Abreu (.365 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018) is also firmly in play despite not having the platoon advantage vs. Sanchez. The White Sox have a 4.18 implied line vs. Sanchez and the Blue Jays Sunday Afternoon.