Logan Webb Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Zack Wheeler is the most expensive pitcher on slate, costing at least $10.5K on either site. The workload has been slightly less, but Wheeler’s allowed just three runs in 23.2 innings over his last four starts, striking out 32 of 95 batters with just five walks and an 83.4 mph Ev. Riding a 23.7 K-BB% and 84.6 mph EV for the season, estimators are all within half a run of his 2.79 ERA. There’s added importance in this start in Atlanta, so we might expect the Phillies to push Wheeler for everything he’s got tonight as he transitions from one positive run environment to another tonight. The Braves have an even 100 wRC+ at home and vs RHP with a projected lineup of middling strikeout rates. While we can’t say for certain that Wheeler’s the top pitcher on the board, he’s definitely a major part of that conversation and still likely a decent value.

Brandon Woodruff is the only other pitcher exceeding $10K on both sites. He has completed six innings with at least six strikeouts in five straight starts, only once failing to qualify for a quality start over that span. His 30.2 K% (24 K-BB%), 85.9 mph EV and 5.8% Barrels/BBE are probably overshadowed by Corbin Burnes. Even if a 2.52 ERA is below all estimators, a 3.26 SIERA and 3.21 xERA are nothing to scoff at. He gets a park upgrade against a below average offense (92 wRC+) in St Louis, but there are two concerns here. First, the Cardinals are red hot (142 wRC+ last seven days) and more importantly, the Brewers have absolutely nothing to play for this week. They’re locked into their spot as the second seed in the National League. This is nothing more than a tune up start for Woodruff. In a vacuum, he’d be a candidate for top overall arm and a decent value, but the Brewers have every reason to utilize caution with him tonight.

Chris Sale is exactly $10K on FanDuel tonight, the only other pitcher to reach that mark on either site, and $600 less on DraftKings. First impression might be that he’s one of the top arms on the board against the Orioles, but he’s struck out just nine of 37 Orioles in two starts against them, while allowing three home runs. It’s not a favorable park and the Orioles do have a 102 wRC+ vs LHP, while only four in the projected lineup exceed a 22.3 K% vs LHP this year. Even after striking out eight of 22 Mets last time out, Sale still has just a 20.7 K% (11.5 SwStr%) over his last four starts. Just as interestingly, Sale has generated most his contact on the ground (51%) with an 84.3 mph EV. Estimators are about a run above his 2.57 ERA (.348 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%). Sale’s been fine, but not elite and may be over-priced here.

Adam Wainwright and Walker Buehler are the only other pitchers reaching $9K on both sites, though Logan Webb misses by $100 and Yu Darvish by $200. Wainwright was tagged for two home runs and five runs by the Brewers last time out and while the best defense in the league has helped him produce a 3.05 ERA that’s more than half a run lower than all of his estimators, he now has just a 13.6 K% over five September starts, making it a bit tougher for his defense to compensate. While the Cardinals haven’t clinched, they’re pretty much locked into that second wild card spot and don’t have much incentive to push Wainwright either here. With limited upside, your betting on workload and defense, making him difficult to recommend in this spot. Buehler has just a 15.7 K% over his last five starts, failing to compete four innings twice in his last four after having failed to complete six in just one start previously this year. He’s been a bit fortunate with a 2.47 BABIP and 80.4 LOB% this season. All estimators are more than half a run above his 2.58 ERA, the worst being a 3.79 SIERA. The positive is that the Dodgers are still fighting to stay out of the Wild Card game, but as Buehler will likely hit the 200 inning mark in this game, the drop in strikeout rate is concerning and just three batters in the projected San Diego lineup exceed a 20 K% vs RHP this year.

We’re covering a lot here, but just two left. Darvish has struck out at least seven in six innings or more with no more than a single run in two of his last four starts. He also still has a 6.78 ERA with a 5.15 FIP, but 3.73 xFIP since the start of July. Those two recent quality starts are the only ones over this span in which he hasn’t allowed a home runs. With a 29.2 K%, all estimators are below four on the season. His incentive may be keeping the Dodgers away from a division title, but the highest strikeout rate in the projected lineup is 22.4%. It was an uncharacteristically poor start for Webb against Padres last time out, just his second non-quality start in his last 12. He’s simply been the best pitcher on the best team in baseball with a 26.2 K%, 61.3 GB% and 6% Barrels/BBE. A 3.04 ERA is within a quarter of a run of all estimators. He checks all the boxes tonight. Negative run environment, favorable matchup (Arizona 78 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP), strikeouts (five in projected lineup above 22% vs RHP), incentive (the Giants have a two game lead in the West). Webb may not only be the top value on the board, but potentially in the conversation with Wheeler (and maybe Woodruff) for the top overall spot tonight.

Although all 30 teams are on the Friday night slate, Zack Wheeler is the only pitcher on the board to reach $10K on both sites. After a 10 start stretch where he allowed at least three runs eight times (4.59 ERA) and probably ruined his Cy Young chances, Wheeler’s allowed just a single run over his last 12.2 innings, striking out 17 of 50 batters. He has failed to record at least two sixth inning outs in just two starts this year with a 23.5 K-BB% and only a single estimator above three (3.21 SIERA). Big park upgrade, pitching in his previous home park tonight. The Mets have a 96 wRC+ vs RHP with four of eight in the projected lineup above a 24 K% against them this year. It wouldn’t be wrong to consider Wheeler your top pitcher tonight and a pretty decent value on either site.

The second most expensive pitcher on the board, Walker Buehler costs $10.2K on DraftKings and $300 less on FanDuel. Much like Wheeler, a large chuck of Buehler’s value lies in his workload. He has failed to complete six innings just twice this year and a quality start just four times, but he’s now struck out just 11 of his last 72 with a 9.5 SwStr%. He’s also allowed a home run in five of his last six starts after going 11 out of 12 starts without one. With a .239 BABIP and 82.9 LOB%, his 2.32 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 3.09 xERA to a 3.76 SIERA. He gets a substantial park downgrade in Cincinnati, facing an offense with a 110 wRC+ at home and 106 wRC+ vs RHP this year, while the highest strikeout rate in the projected lineup against RHP this season is 24.7%. These matchup factors place him behind Wheeler tonight.

Chris Sale is the only other pitcher to reach the $10K mark on either site tonight and he costs exactly that on FanDuel, $500 less on DraftKings. Sale missed a start on the COVID list, but has made five of them this year striking out 30 of 109 batters, exceeding a 12.5 SwStr% four times. He has allowed four home runs (19 HR/FB), but two of them in his first start and just two barrels so far. The Orioles have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but they just made Nestor Cortes and Jordan Montgomery look like…well…Chris Sale. Five batters in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs LHP. Concerns would be the positive environment that is Fenway, though weather will not aid bats tonight, and workload. Will the Red Sox be more cautious with Sale after missing a start. He’s only exceeded 90 pitches once this season anyway.

Logan Webb is the only other pitcher exceeding $9K on both sites and he may not only be the top value among the high priced arms, but has recently been showing enough upside to consider him in contention for top pitcher on the board. In fact, it wouldn’t be crazy to consider Logan Webb the best starter on the best team in baseball right now. He’s only gotten better as the season’s gone on, striking out 26.2% of batters with a 61.1 GB% and 87.6 mph EV. His worst estimator and only one more than half a run above his 2.80 ERA is a 3.38 xERA and he snapped a string of nine straight quality starts last time out at Wrigley. The Braves have a 101 wRC+ vs RHP, but Webb pitches in a great park and just three in the projected lineup have a strikeout rate below 22.6% against RHP this year.

The middle of the board is more interesting than the top tonight. That’s because you generally know what you’re going to get with the top guys and that’s more volume than upside. The lower priced guys are obviously riskier, but there are several who could stand alone with some upside. Alek Manoah has struck out at least nine in three of his last five starts and has a 29.3 K% on the year. He’s allowed more than two earned runs in just two of his 11 starts and while he doesn’t necessarily generate a lot of ground balls (40%), an 86.8 mph EV has kept the barrels to a league average rate on contact (8.3%). His 2.59 ERA is projected to regress, but all estimators are below four. Washington is a positive run environment and the projected lineup doesn’t include anyone exceeding a 25.5 K% vs RHP this year, but it also lacks much potency (nobody above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year) and Manoah costs just $8.6K on DraftKings ($9.9K on FanDuel).

Logan Webb has simply gone unrecognized as one of the better pitchers in the league this year with a well above average strikeout rate (26%) and an elite ground ball rate (60.2%). While his 2.96 ERA is below all of his estimators, it’s only more than half a run removed from a 3.53 xERA. He faces a struggling Mets’ offense (91 wRC+ vs RHP) in a negative run environment. While the Mets don’t strike out a ton, five of eight projected exceed a 23 K% vs RHP. Webb is $8.8K on DraftKings, but $1.2K less on FanDuel and may be the best value on the board.

Sandy Alcantara had a little bit of extra time off after the All-Star break and it seems to have helped as he’s thrown seven shutout innings with a combined 17 Ks in two of his three outings in August, but also allowed 10 runs at Coors in his other with a single strikeout. Let’s choose to believe in the positive as he still had a 12 SwStr% in Colorado. Struggles prior to the break have dropped Alcantara’s strikeout rate to a below average 21.6% at this point, though the contact profile is still exemplary (52.9 GB%, 87.2 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE). Thus, his 3.52 xERA fits closest to his 3.52 ERA with additional estimators going as high as a 4.09 SIERA. We can expect volume with weak ground balls, but a chance for a high strikeout total too. It’s a great park and six of eight in the projected Atlanta lineup have at least a 23.4 K% vs RHP. Alcantara is $9.8K on DraftKings, but more than $1K less on FanDuel.

Covering your lower priced potential SP2 with some quick hits: Bailey Ober has produced an impressive 25.5 K% with just a 6.6 BB%, but has not recorded more than one sixth inning out this year and has struggled with a 19.1 HR/FB. However, all 13 of his barrels have left the yard (7.9% Barrels/BBE), which certainly suggests some improvement on that end. He’s $6.9K in a decent park against a below average Cleveland offense. Opposing him, Eli Morgan has struck out as many as nine twice in his 10 major league starts, but also as few as one twice and has had a single digit SwStr% in five of his last seven with some contact profile issues (26.8 GB%, 11.3% Barrels/BBE). The projected lineup for Minnesota includes four batters with a 28.9 K% or worse vs RHP and Morgan costs $100 less than Ober. German Marquez is facing a very contact prone lineup in the worst park, but has a 3.77 ERA that’s exceeded by only one of his estimators (3.91 SIERA). You rarely see that quality for $7.1K on DraftKings. was breaking out through eight starts earlier in the year (21.8 K-BB%, 3.43 SIERA), but did have some contact profile concerns (91.1 mph EV, 11.1% Barrels/BBE, 4.83 xERA) with an 83.8 LOB% producing an ERA just above three (3.02). He worked his way up to 21 batters in his most recent rehab start, striking out seven, but walking four. He returns in a great park in Miami against a projected lineup with four batters above a 26.5 K% vs RHP and doesn’t have to do too much to pay off $7.3K.

Sometimes, a bad matchup might not matter as much for a top pitcher, but it’s rare that we’re willing to consider mid-range pitchers in really tough spots. One exception might be tonight where Freddy Peralta takes on the Dodgers (122 wRC+ vs RHP). The strikeout upside is just so enormous (41.8% with a 16.3 SwStr%) for less than $10K. However, it’s not like Peralta is cheap (at least $8K on either site) and does present with some red flags. He’s running up pitch counts quickly with a 14.3 BB% and has gone beyond five innings just once so far. He’s also not helping himself when contact is rarely made with 12.8% Barrels/BBE and a 36.8 GB%. Max Muncy (18.2 BB% vs RHP since 2019) presents a whole set of problems just by himself here, but we still can’t entirely ignore that strikeout rate.

A more under the radar name might be Logan Webb. He faces the Padres (97 wRC+, but just an 11.3 K-BB% vs RHP). Webb raised some expectations with a strong March and has come out of the gate with an increase to his strikeout rate (24.7%) with a 59 GB% that sits behind just Marcus Stroman today. A few too many walks (10.3%), but a league average strikeout rate with an elite ground ball rate is a pretty good pitcher. He also has just an 86.2 mph EV. So, lots of weak ground balls. Webb’s start hasn’t gone unnoticed by DraftKings, as he’s up to $8K. However, he’s just $6.6K on FanDuel and for GPP players who want to embrace some risk, he has exceeded 90 pitches in three of his four starts, including more than 100 last time out. Gabe Kapler is beginning to trust him, making Webb a better candidate for a Quality Start.

In 2 big league starts so far, Logan Webb has a 4.66 ERA / 4.04 xFIP / 4.18 SIERA with a 20.9% K rate, 7% BB rate and 8.1% SwStr over 9 and 2.3 innings. In 41 and 1/3 innings in AA earlier this year, Webb managed a very solid 2.18 ERA / 3.13 xFIP with a 26.3% K rate and 6.7% BB rate. He projects as a roughly 4.50 ERA pitcher going forward by most projection systems. Webb will get a matchup vs. the Padres tonight in extremely hitter friendly Oracle Park, who have just an 86 wRC+ and an ugly 26.5% K rate vs. RHP this year. They also have a 2nd worst .283 xwOBA over the past 30 days as they have been hurt by the loss of Fernando Tatis Jr. and trade of Franmil Reyes. The Padres projected lineup for tonight has just one batter (Eric Hosmer) who has an xwOBA greater than .325 vs. RHP this year. Webb is especially cheap on FanDuel where his $6.6k price makes him easily one of the best projected values on the slate. Webb is also in play on Draftkings at $7.9k where he projects to see minimal ownership despite a great matchup and park with an affordable price. The Padres currently have just a 4.00 implied total vs. Webb and the Giants.