Lonnie Chisenhall Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mike Fiers hasn't been terrible this season (20.2 K%, 3.38 ERA, 4.11 FIP last 30 days), but has the misfortune of running into the Indians tonight (123 wRC+ and 29.1 Hard-Soft% at home). The Tribe has the top implied run line outside Coors tonight (5.56) and only the weather may be able to stop them tonight (Kevin's early forecast is ORANGE/YELLOW, but with winds blowing out 15 mph to left). Fiers at one time had a substantial reverse platoon split, but that's disappeared. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .340 and .357 wOBA and xwOBA since last season. The first six batters in this lineup could all return favorable lines for players. All have at least a 110 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. Lonnie Chisenhall (110 wRC+, .133 ISO) is the only one below a .185 ISO over that span, but provides salary relief at $3.2K or less against an expensive first four. Each of those first four, however, exceed a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Jose Ramirez (162 wRC+, .361 ISO) has become one of the top overall bats on the board on any given day.

Considering that RHBs had just a .243 wOBA with a 23.8 K-BB%, 54.5 GB% and 24.9 Hard% against Luis Severino, perhaps the loss of Edwin Encarnacion will not be felt so much. Michael Brantley had a formidable 125 wRC+ and .177 ISO vs RHP, while LHBs had a slightly more competent .287 wOBA, 21.7 K-BB%, 46 GB% and 32.7 Hard%, numbers still very much in favor of one of the best pitchers in the league this year. Cleveland has a slate low 3.32 implied run line despite Severino's struggles in the Wild Card game that didn't allow him out of the first inning. While one wouldn't expect a continuation of whatever went wrong in that game, it went to prove that these players are all still human and anything can happen in a single game. His 29.4 K% and 13.0 SwStr% trail only Max Scherzer on today's board. The same can be said of his 2.98 ERA and 3.25 SIERA. Jay Bruce (131 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP) at $3.7K and Lonnie Chisenhall (120 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) at $3.3K may still project for some value on DraftKings, while Jason Kipnis (93 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) costs $2.8K on FanDuel. As we saw in the Wild Card game, margin for error is minuscule in an elimination game, but Severino has the ability to shut down any lineup and costs exactly $9.7K on either site, the third most expensive pitcher today. Though it's been raining in the area most of the day, the forecast calls for it to dry out during game hours. Kevin gives the game a YELLOW grade with 15 mph winds blowing out to left. Brian O'Nora is tonight's scheduled home plate umpire. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 284 games with O'Nora behind the plate, players have a 19.8 K% and 7.8 BB%, mostly a neutral effect (0.97 K-Boost, 1.02 BB-Boost).

Theoretically, Masahiro Tanaka should be on a short leash with a two game deficit in a five game series, but if he pitches the way he did in his season finale (7 IP - 3 H - 0 BB - 15 K) it's not going to matter. Joe Girardi shouldn't be gun shy about going to a normally dominant bullpen early after they blew the game in Cleveland, but Tanaka certainly has enough upside to be playable on a two game slate, especially at just an $8.1K price tag on DraftKings. The Tribe has an implied run line of 4.3, which is third highest (or second worst) on the board. Edwin Encarnacion (134 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP) has surprisingly not been ruled out tonight after turning his ankle on Saturday. Michael Brantley (125 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP) would be a capable replacement, though still a step down considering that Masahiro Tanaka did not have much of a split this year (LHBs .316 wOBA, 16 HRs, 21.9 K-BB%, 55 GB%, 32.1 Hard% - RHBs .333 wOBA, 19 HRs, 19.2 K-BB%, 45.1 GB%, 31 Hard%) with the largest discrepancy being in his ground ball rate. Kevn's forecast calls for a light wind (10 mph) blowing out to left with enough moisture in the air to be a slight aid towards hitters as well. Tanaka has the potential for double digit strikeouts (15.1 SwStr% best on the board), but his 35 HRs surrendered in a power boosting park certainly means players can use Cleveland hitters in the same lineup as the Yankee pitcher. Second Base might be the toughest call on FanDuel between Jose Ramirez (149 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Kipnis (93 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) with the latter costing less than $3K. Both are multi-position eligible on DraftKings to make things easier. Jay Bruce (131 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP) looks to continue his hot start to the post-season and is certainly capable of taking Tanaka deep. Lonnie Chisenhall (120 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) is another value plaly if in the lineup. Kevin's forecast also has this game at YELLOW currently, for the small chance of a delay, which is actually more concerning than a postponement which would cancel a one game slate. It's more about how the conditions might affect play on the field. Dana DeMuth should be the home plate umpire for Game Three according to Yahoo Sports. In 289 recorded contests by Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters had a 19.4 K% and 8.3 BB% with DeMuth behind the plate, a 1.1 K-Boost and 0.95 BB-Boost signifying a pitcher's umpire.

Sonny Gray gets the Game One start for the Yankees in Cleveland. The Tribe has a 4.56 implied run line that leads the slate by more than half a run. Although Gray allowed more than two ERs in just three of his 11 starts for the Yankees, he also allowed 10 HRs over his last seven starts with just an 11.5 K-BB% and 47.3 GB% for his new team. He showed very little split against RHBs or LHBs and, in fact, had an identical .303 wOBA against batters from either side in a Yankee uniform, though RHBs have seven of his 11 HRs allowed. The reason to roster Gray as the lowest priced pitcher on the board (either site) would be to stack Yankees, in particular Judge and Sanchez, though FanDuel rules insist that players can only roster a total of four players from one team, which includes the pitcher. Cleveland is a hitters' park and PlateIQ has this lineup with a .335 wOBA, .210 ISO and 18.1 K% vs RHP. If rostering either Sale or Verlander, Lonnie Chisenhall (120 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) immediately becomes the most interesting player in this lineup, especially on FanDuel ($2.1K), where he may provide a direct path towards one of the higher priced bats like Judge. Jose Ramirez (149 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP), Edwin Encarnacion (134 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP) and Francisco Lindor (110 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) are all fine choices, but likely in-affordable unless rostering Bauer as well and that four-some would cover your Cleveland allotment on FanDuel. Jay Bruce (131 wRC+, 273 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.9K on FanDuel.

Other things players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. The Weather page suggests temperatures around 70 degrees at game time in Cleveland and Kevin mentioned on twitter a small chance of sprinkles, though most likely to play dry. The Yankee bullpen is a beast, as we saw in the Wild Card game. The good news is that they are unlikely to empty it in the first game of the series, but supporters of Cleveland bats do not want to see this game close late. The Yankees led all bullpens with a 29.1 K% and 9.2 fWAR. Yahoo Sports names Vic Carapazza as tonight's home plate umpire. The RotoGrinders Umpire Factors page shows a sample size of 231 games with a 21.1 K% and 7.7 BB%, which might suggest a larger strike zone and a slight boost for pitchers. In fact, his stats signify a K Boost of 1.06 and with negative factors for hitters.

The top five overall projected hitters via the RotoGrinders Player Projections are the same on both sites tonight with Brian Dozier (169 wRC+, .295 ISO vs LHP) on top against Brett Anderson, who has just a 46.3 GB% this year and a 51.8 Hard%. His 46% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board. RHBs have a .362 wOBA and 37.3 Hard% against him this year. He's joined by Byron Buxton (121 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP), who also cracks the top five tonight, a possible first for him. Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) against Seth Lugo (LHBs .325 wOBA, 35.9 Hard%), Rhys Hoskins (191 wRC+, .407 ISO vs RHP) against Vance Worley now (RHBs .400 wOBA, 33.6 Hard%), and Jose Altuve (163 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP) against Ricky Nolasco (RHBs .393 wOBA, 40.3 Hard%) are the remaining top five projected bats tonight. The Cleveland Indians find three bats (Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez) among the next six against Jakob Junis. Without much in the way of expensive pitching tonight, players should have a bit more roster flexibility than normal, but Buxton doubles as a top value on FanDuel (3.66 Pt/$/K), along with Lonnie Chisenhall (3.71 Pt/$/K). He also projects strongly on a point per dollar basis on DraftKings (2.33 Pt/$/K), along with Nick Williams (2.5 Pt/$/K).

Seven of 16 teams on Monday night have an implied run line above 4.9 runs with the red hot Cleveland Indians (5.8) nearly half a run above any other offense currently. They face the rookie Myels Jaye. The 25 year-old right-hander was an "Other Prospect of Note" in the Detroit system as graded by Fangraphs in December. He's appeared twice in relief so far, failing to strike out any of the 24 batters he's faced and had just a 15.4 K% in 60.1 AAA IP after a 23 K% in 71.1 AA IP. He was closer to league average in both spots last year (39 IP AAA/122.2 IP AA). He's likely in quite a bit of trouble in Cleveland, who has already seen him (14 BF). Francisco Lindor has a 103 wRC+ and .225 ISO vs RHP this year and he seems to be the low man in the lineup despite a 226 wRC+ over the last week. Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Lonnie Chisenhall and Jay Bruce all have a wRC+ between 128 and 138 with an ISO between .230 and .280 vs RHP. Remove Santana and the remaining four have an ISO bewteen .260 and .280 vs RHP. All, including Lindor and Santana have a hard hit rate above 30% with a fly ball rate above 40% against RHP. It's going to be difficult to go wrong with the top two-thirds of this lineup, though affordability is another issue with only Bruce ($4K) and Chisenhall ($4.6K) below $5K on DraftKings. Both are also the only two below $3.9K on FanDuel, where Chisenhall ($2.9K) has to be considered a top value play tonight.