Lucas Giolito Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

You’re very likely, almost certainly paying more than $9K for your FanDuel pitcher tonight. In fact, two of the top three projecting FanDuel pitching values cost more than $10K and you’re probably not using Louis Varland on a single pitcher site if you like money. Especially considering the weather risk in that game. The next three best projected values on FanDuel all cost less than $9.5K, but again, Mitch White is a no go and Tommy Henry has struck out more than four batters just once (although this projected San Francisco lineup has a ton of Ks in it). However, the fifth best projected FD value, costing $9.3K, has a great matchup and some upside. Lucas Giolito believes an injury in his first start derailed a season that has never gotten on track. A 25.3 K% is fine, but lower than his past few seasons with just an average 8.3 BB% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE. A 5.07 ERA can be blamed on a .351 BABIP, but more was expected than estimators ranging from a 3.65 xFIP to a 4.42 xERA. As is the case around most of the league tonight, Giolito should be expecting some pitcher friendly conditions in Chicago against the lowly Tigers (72 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 6.4 BB%, 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP). Giolito is the fourth best projected value for just $7.7K, where he’s likely to be the most popular SP2 on the slate for those who won’t attempt to pay up for both their pitchers.

For the most part, that’s likely it on FanDuel. Both Sean Manaea and Jeffrey Springs are cheaper with above average strikeout rates, but the former has been getting punished and is at Coors, while the latter has a questionable workload and the Blue Jays. Let’s take a look at some potential secondary DraftKings options though. Again, Varland (40 Future Value grade Fangraphs) does have serious weather concerns. He has struck out 10 of 44 batters faced (9.9 SwStr%) with three walks and two barrels (6.5%), which were both home runs. He also has just a 35.5 GB% with a 91.3 mph EV so far. Varland had just four starts (21.1 IP) at AAA with a 28.6 K%. A larger AA workload (105 IP) yielded a 17.8 K-BB%. In a high upside matchup (Angels 93 wRC+, 27.2 K% vs RHP), he is the top projecting DraftKings value for less than $6K.

In the same price range, projecting as the second best DK value, a 14.4 SwStr% has only helped Cody Morris strike out 15 of 68 batters, but that’s because he has a board low 10.3 CStr% and has also walked nine. He’s also allowed six barrels (13.6%), three of which have left the yard. He’s always struck out tons of batters at every level, but maybe these are the things that have held him back. Watch the roof in Texas because an opening would significantly increase the run environment, but it’s otherwise a fine matchup (Rangers 94 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP) for the kind of arm you probably want to take a few shots with for the cost.

Giolito is the only remaining pitcher costing less than $9K among the top six projected DK values. The most pitcher friendly weather conditions might be in Kansas City though, where the Mariners visit the Royals. It’s not that a large percentage of Marco Gonzales’s batted balls are barrels. In fact, it’s only 7.1% and he has just an 87.2 mph average exit velocity. However, with just a 13.0 K%, there are an awfully lot of batted balls and 40 of them have been barrels. Six have been home runs over his last three starts. His ERA is only has low as 4.01 because 11 of his 85 runs have been unearned. All estimators are above four and a half, but the Mariners will let him go when things are going right. He actually has 17 Quality Starts. You could get six to seven innings of solid run prevention under these conditions for less than $6K, but the Royals have a 102 wRC+ with just a 20.3 K% vs LHP.

Opposing Gonzales, Brady Singer has a board high 21.6% called strike rate, which is not as reliable as swinging strikes, but allows him to generate a 23.9 K% with a 9.2 SwStr%, which is great when he’s also generating 48.6% of his contact on the ground with few walks (5.6%). The problem is that he’s down to a 17.9 K% and 6.2 SwStr% over the last month. However, he’s gone 13 scoreless innings most recently in his last two starts with 11 Ks against Boston and Detroit. In fact, he actually has 11 Quality Starts his last 13, though estimators are a bit above his 3.07 ERA on the season (3.23 DRA – 3.87 xERA). The Mariners have a 104 wRC+ and 22.7 K% vs RHP, but are expected to be without their best player and likely Rookie of the Year winner tonight. Singer is a little bit more expensive than these other arms at $8.6K ($1K more on FanDuel if you’re considering that avenue).

While 25% of Friday’s 14 game slate exceeds $9K on both sites tonight and many of them do project as top of the board pitchers tonight, point per dollar projections on either site suggest that it might be okay to pay down for arms. There is no pitcher projecting as a top four value on either site costing more than $9K right now. Are any of them usable on a single pitcher site though?

Let’s start at the top. Your top projecting value on either site is within $400 of $8K on either. Josiah Gray has now allowed 36 home runs on 42 barrels (11.5%) and while there’s bound to be some regression from a 19.6 HR/FB (even if not this year), that’s still a ton of barrels. Making it even worse is that he’s struck out just eight of his last 69 batters with 12 walks. Considering the results he was getting with a high strikeout rate, this new turn is disastrous. With just a 14.7 K-BB% on the year now, even contact neutral estimators exceed four, while a 4.31 xERA suggests It may be more of a contact elevation problem than a hard contact one overall. The good news for him is that his slider still grades well (29.1%, -1.4 RV/100, 40.9 Whiff%, .257 wOBA, .219 xwOBA) and Miami is the worst offense in the league against that pitch since the break (-1.51 wSL/C), as well as owning a 92 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs RHP overall. More good news for Gray here is a predominantly right-handed lineup and Gray has a very large split this year (LHBs .413 wOBA, .364 xwOBA – RHBs .306 wOBA, .285 xwOBA). Gray is high risk and the strikeout decline towards the end of a long season is concerning, but the matchup should give him some upside in this spot. He still may be difficult to trust on a single pitcher site right now.

Lucas Giolito has correlated a lot of his issues this season with an early season injury and has never fully gotten on track. The strikeout rate is still above average (25.3%), but still his lowest since 2018 and just when we think he’s gotten his barrel issues under control, he’s allowed seven of his last three starts (8.3% on the year). That’s still lower than his 8.6% walk rate and don’t even get started on the BABIP (.352). At least we can count on the latter regressing, which is why his 5.18 ERA is more than three-quarters of a run above estimators ranging from a 3.65 xFIP to a 4.37 xERA. What we love here again, is the matchup (Tigers 72 wRC+, 25.2 K%, 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a decent environment at a decent price. Giolito projects as a top five arm overall and a top three value on either site, who certainly can be considered on a single pitcher site, though he costs exactly $9K on FanDuel ($1.2K less on DraftKings).

Either the third or fourth best projecting value on either site for less than $8K, people were excited when Jack Flaherty returned from a long IL stint for the second time this year, but this time with velocity intact as he struck out six of 23 Nationals, allowing only a run over five innings. Excitement may have faded when he held that velocity against the Pirates, but walked four without striking out any of the 23 batters he faced. He did allow two home runs and barrels. This is really the third straight lost season for Flaherty, who has more walks than strikeouts through five starts and you have to start to wonder because the only decent offense he’s faced this year has been Milwaukee. He’s in another great spot here against the Reds (85 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP), but has to be considered very high risk now.

Just to illustrate the volatility, Jesus Luzardo followed up a seven outing, two run, two walk, nine strikeout performance against the Phillies with a 3.1 innings, five run, three walk, three strikeout one against the Mets. The Marlins are thankful there’s been less of the bad and more of the good this year, as Luzardo has rebounded to 27.7 K% (17.9 K-BB%) with a 3.81 ERA that’s above all estimators, ranging from a 3.34 FIP to a 3.74 DRA. He actually has seven Quality Starts over his last 11 outings. He gets a park downgrade against a below average (91 wRC+, 8.4 HR/FB), but contact prone offense (20.1 K%) against LHP, projecting as the sixth best value on either site within $300 of $9K and has the upside to carry a team on a single pitcher site.

Lastly, we have to talk about the two New York pitchers tonight. Just when we thought he was back, Frankie Montas struggled in his second straight start against the Rays with four runs, walks and strikeouts after having one hit them with seven strikeouts previously. Even more concerning was another velocity drop. His overall numbers are still strong (17.1 K-BB% with a 34.7% hard hit rate) and he’s even had a few strong starts with the Yankees recently, but always seems to get sidetracked. A 3.94 xERA is still his only estimator exceeding a 3.89 ERA. The question is probably more about health than talent at this point. If healthy, he’s underpriced (within $100 of $8.5K on either site), even in a difficult matchup (Brewers 109 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 15.3 HR/FB) in a potentially dangerous park (if the roof is open), but we really don’t know the answer to that question, which certainly increases the risk and range of outcomes.

Even against the Marlins, it was a surprise to see Taijuan Walker strike out 10 of 26 batters over seven shutout innings because, though not to the extent of last year, he had been struggling in the second half again. Even with that outing, he has a 5.44 ERA/5.32 FIP/4.77 xFIP combo over nine post-break starts. On the season, he has just a 19.1 K% with all non-FIP estimators more than half a run above his 3.48 ERA, as just 12 of his 31 barrels (7.7%) have left the yard. The Pirates (83 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) are a tremendous matchup in a great park, but Walker costs $1.1K more on FanDuel, where he’d have to hit his ceiling for a second straight start to pay off.

You’ve got Robbie Ray and Charlie Morton facing each other in a tough spot for both atop the board and then a couple of other expensive pitchers who may not even be usable tonight. It seems like paying down for pitching could be the thing to do tonight. We have two pitchers not living up to expectations this year, both projecting as top of the board values in great matchups in the $8K range tonight. In fact, Lucas Giolito and Lance McCullers project as the top two values on either site in that order. If it’s not the BABIP (.354) it’s the barrels for Giolito (six over his last two starts drives his season rate back up to 8.4% after none in his previous five starts). Not to mention the lower (but still well above average) 25.3 K% this season. Giolito has recently mentioned just starting to feel stronger since being injured on Opening Day, but let’s start seeing signs of it. His 5.21 ERA does exceed all estimators by nine-tenths of a run, but a 3.68 xFIP is the best of the bunch. That’s fine, but does not include the contact profile. This is a great get right spot for him in Oakland tonight. It’s a tremendous park upgrade and the home team has just an 83 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs RHP this season. They also have just a 7.3 HR/FB at home.

McCullers has struck out just 20 of 94 batters with 14 walks and a lower ground ball rate than usual (47.5%). The concerning thing is that these starts were against the A’s, Braves, O’s and Angels, some pretty strikeout prone offenses, while his velocity has dipped over the last two. The 2.08 ERA is a byproduct of a single home run and 88.6 LOB%. All non-FIP estimators exceed four. He actually seems the more volatile of the two because while he’s facing an offense with a 93 wRC+ and 26.8 K% vs RHP, the Angels do have a dangerous top half of the order. Fletcher doesn’t strike out (9.1% vs RHP) and Trout, Ohtani and Ward are all more dangerous than anyone in the Oakland order. Houston is also a negative run environment with the roof closed, but doesn’t limit power nearly as much as Oakland either.

The only other low cost top five projected value on both sites, Daniel Lynch’s velocity was down last time out and he has just a 12.9 K% (8.8 SwStr%) over his last five starts. He’s allowed at least three runs (not all earned) in 11 of his last 16 starts and all season estimators are now within half a run of his 4.82 ERA (11.2 K-BB%). Lynch has shown positive flashes this season, but has yet to have any sustained success at the major league level. The matchup is not even all that great. The Tigers have a 100 wRC+ with a 21.9 K% vs LHP, but with little power (7.2 HR/FB). Really, it’s the price tag (< $6.5K) that’s the only appealing thing here.

A bit more expensively, in fact, just $100 away from costing $9K on both sites, Frankie Montas appears back on track, striking out 19 of his last 68 batters with just a single walk, 48.8 GB% and 85.6 mph EV. Hopefully, this puts to rest concerns about a lingering shoulder issue, while his season numbers are still fairly strong (18.0 K-BB%). All estimators are within half a run of his 3.79 ERA and below four. He’s only completed six innings twice since the start of July though. He is tonight’s fifth best projected arm, but barely a top half of the board value in a high upside spot (Rays 104 wRC+, 24.1 K%) and may be worth the risk in this spot.

Costing more than $1K less on DraftKings, Nick Lodolo tied a season high, striking out nine of 21 Rockies last time out and is up to an impressive 28.3 K% and has induced almost as many popups (10) as barrels allowed (15). Due to a 9.3 BB%, his 3.91 ERA is slightly above estimators ranging from 3.51 SIERA to a 3.84 xERA. This is an exciting young arm with five Quality Starts in his last eight, four with one earned run or less. He projects as tonight’s seventh best arm and just the ninth best DraftKings value, but the Brewers struggle against LHP (87 wRC+, 25.6 K% vs LHP) and may be undervalued here.

With nine pitchers costing more than $9K on each site (all covered in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog), you’re probably not going below that price tag on FanDuel tonight, even though the three best projecting values cost less than $8.5K there tonight. Lucas Giolito might be an option against the Royals (89 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP), except for some extremely hitter friendly weather expectations, along with his own drawbacks. Striking out just three of 24 Orioles, Lucas Giolito produced his first post-break Quality Start last time out. It’s no longer a home run and barrel problem, as he’s allowed just four of each over his last 11 starts, but his BABIP is now up to .357. It’s not all bad luck, as his 25.3 K% is his lowest since 2018. Estimators range from a 3.67 xFIP to a 4.15 DRA. Keep an eye on Weather Edge though. If conditions temper, Gioilto still may be an option.

Projecting as a top two value for less than $6K on either site, Mike Mayers is more an SP2 type on DraftKings and even that may be a stretch against the mighty (112 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 14.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but slumping (89 wRC+, 6.3 HR/FB, but still just a 17.3 K% over the last week) Yankees in a hitter friendly environment. We’re even expecting a hitter friendly umpire tonight. Mayers struck out five of 19 Rays in his first start, throwing fewer pitches (78) than he did in his previous relief outing. It’s not that he’s shown anything exceptional out of the bullpen (13.7 K-BB%, 12.0% Barrels/BBE), but the Angels just need arms at this point. Eight of his 12 barrels have left the yard, but his 4.46 ERA is within half a run of all estimators. The only appeal Mayers has is his price tag with a league average K-BB%.

Erick Fedde struck out six of 19 Mariners (14.8 SwStr%) in his first major league start in a month, but has just a 6.2 K-BB% on the season, which places his 4.88 ERA within one-fifth of a run of all estimators. We’re usually talking about Fedde to encourage players to stack against him, but tonight, he projects as the third best value on either site for less than $7K against the A’s (81 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP, 63 wRC+, 23.3 K%, 6.4 HR/FB last seven days).

One more place to look for arms is in Detroit. George Kirby isn’t that cheap ($9.2K on FanDuel) and has been working on a lower pitch count recently, but it hasn’t seemed to hurt his production. Despite exceeding 85 pitches in just one of his last five starts, he has struck out 36 batters (30.3%) over that span. The caveat is that he’s done this with just a 9.4 SwStr%. The 24.9 K% on the season isn’t the story. It’s the 3.3 BB% that occasionally lets him sneak into games, despite the low pitch counts. The contact profile was a bit of an early concern. While he’s still at 9.0% Barrels/BBE on the season, he’s allowed just six (4.9%) over his last eight starts. His 3.32 ERA fits snuggly between estimators ranging from just a 3.19 FIP to a 3.39 DRA. Four a guy who throws his four-seam fastball 46.8% of the time (-1.8 RV/100, 27.8 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .260), he’s certainly facing the right team (Tigers MLB worst -0.63 wFB/C). This is probably one of the few matchups in baseball, if not the only one, we’re willing to consider a fairly high price tag with such a pitch limit, but the Tigers have a 72 wRC+, 25.1 K% and 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP.

On the other side of this matchup, Matt Manning costs less than $7K on DK. While he hasn’t exactly faced the top offenses in the league, Matt Manning has still struck out 26 of his last 101 batters with a 13.7 SwStr%. That only brings him up to a 20.3 K% over seven starts, but with a 5.9 BB% and excellent contact profile (86.7 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 29.2% 95+ mph EV). While all estimators are well above his 2.37 ERA (84.7 LOB%, 6.1 HR/FB), contact inclusive ones (3.37 xERA) are closer than contact neutral ones (4.12 SIERA). The Mariners aren’t an easy matchup at all (103 wRC+, 22.7 K% vs RHP), but there’s some upside there and Manning could work in an SP2 spot for that price.

Filter PlateIQ pitching projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) for P/$ for either site tonight and you are not going to find a pitcher costing $9K or more anywhere near the top. All three of the projecting for more than 4.0 P/$ on FanDuel are below $9K and all five above 2.1 P/$ on DraftKings are less than $8K. That’s not only due to a lackluster top of the board, but a lot of volatility in the middle. Volatility means instability and is not something most people want a lot of in their lives, but it can also mean good things as in pitcher upside today and that’s great for GPPs. Let’s start with Lucas Giolito, who’s actually the top projected pitcher on the board and a top two projected value on either site. Has he finally solved his home run problem? Giolito’s only allowed a single barrel over his last two starts and it’s not an issue he’s had since breaking out in 2019. He had allowed 13 barrels (14.6%) over his previous five starts with nine of them leaving the yard and a 92.5 mph EV. It looks like he’s increasing his slider usage (30%) and reducing his fastball usage even further (around 40%) most recently. Despite the two homerless starts, his velocity is really down over the last month too. This is a tough one because you have a pitcher with a 27.3 K%, who has had unprecedented contact profile issues this season (major contact profile issues), but now has back to back Quality Starts without a home run, but continued reduced velocity. The answer tonight may be to embrace the volatility in a great matchup. The Tigers seem to get themselves out (72 wRC+, 24 K%, 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP). All Giolito may need to do is be there. On last word of caution that there may be some hitter friendly weather and umpiring in an already power friendly park. Giolito is not the only volatile middle of the board pitcher with tremendous upside tonight. For more on potentially GPP winning arms, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Monday night’s top projected pitcher is also the top projected value on both sites (and it’s not even close on FanDuel), but is also extremely high risk, which is why he can also be rostered for less than $8.5K on either site. Not only has Lucas Giolito allowed multiple home runs in four of his last five starts, but he’s only struck out exactly three in three of them (though eight in each of the other two). The contact profile has gotten out of hand (20.3 HR/FB, 5.07 FIP, 12.5% Barrels/BBE, 5.23 xERA), while a 27.2 K% still has his xFIP and SIERA below four. If you’re buying into severe home run regression, this is a great spot for Giolito. The Angels have a 106 wRC+ and 14.1 HR/FB, but also a board high 26.2 K% vs RHP. It would be fair to say there’s a wide range of outcomes on the table here, but PlateIQ projections (which are subject to change) believe they’re going to favor the pitcher with the high strikeout rate against the lineup with an equally high one more often than not.

FanDuel projections also like another pair of riskier arms for more than 3.5 points per $1K in salary tonight. Kris Bubic has struck out 18 of his last 68 batters (six walks) and the nine runs he’s allowed over these 15.2 innings have actually reduced his season ERA to 7.41. A 6.9 K-BB% gap seems to be widening, while he hasn’t allowed a single barrel in three straight. His lowest estimator is still a 4.62 xFIP, while nearly half of his contact (48.1%) has been at a 95 mph EV or above. If you’re buying, Kansas City is a power suppressing park, which should help with Texas’s 114 wRC+ with a board high 17.3 HR/FB vs LHP, which comes with a 22 K%, but it’s going to take a strong stomach to roster Bubic on a single pitcher site, even for less than $6.5K. Bubic projects as just a middle of the board value for $6.1K on DraftKings.

Adam Wainwright has struck out seven in three of his last five starts and still hasn’t reached a 9.0 SwStr% in a single game yet this season. Sure, an elite 21.5 CStr% affords him some leeway, but even then, it’s impossible to project even a 20 K% for him over any reasonable span. He’s completed seven inning Quality Starts in five of his last nine outings, but allowed four runs in each of his last two. Wainwright does not have a non-FIP estimator below four, so things could truly get ugly, should he regress in both ERA and strikeout rate. That said, he pitches deep into games and in a great home park. The Marlins have a 111 wRC+ and 14.4 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a 22.2 K% and a predominantly right-handed lineup. Batters from that side have just a .237 wOBA and .250 xwOBA against Wainwright since last season. He projects as a top five value on either site for $8.5K or less, but you’re paying for the floor and not the ceiling here.

If you’re looking for a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings, there are a couple of $9K FanDuel arms, who cost less than $8K on DraftKings and project as top values in Jordan Montgomery and George Kirby (covered on today’s PlateIQ blog). DraftKings projections actually suggest you can find two of the top three values on the board in Seattle tonight. The Orioles have loosened the leash a bit on Tyler Wells. Even though he threw just five innings in his last start, it was with a season high 95 pitches, while he’s thrown at least 84 in four of his last five with sx innings completed for the first three times this year. He still hasn’t struck out more than four in a single start (15.3 K%), but has managed contact fairly well (36.8 GB%, 17.0 IFFB%, 6.9% Barrels/BBE), generating a 3.63 ERA that’s his only estimator below four. The matchup isn’t great either (Mariners 110 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP), but it’s a great park and price ($6.2K).

With DraftKings offering the second game of the double header in Detroit, it’s a 13 game Tuesday night slate, but just 12 on FanDuel. Lucas Giolito is the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites, costing exactly that much on FanDuel and $200 more DraftKings. He tops the slate with a 33.3 K% and at least seven in five of his last six starts. His rates of walks (9.8%) and barrels (10.3%) are a bit high, but even that just pushes his xERA up to 3.84, although all estimators are at least one-quarter of a run above his 2.63 ERA (93.4 LOB%). Giolito loves his changeup and why not with a 45.5 Whiff%, but throwing it fairly often against RHBs too has given him somewhat of a reverse split (RHBs .307 wOBA since last year, LHBs .278) that could work against him a bit here. The Blue Jays line up predominantly from the right-hand side, though they have been just average against RHP (97 wRC+, 22.1 K%). Gioilto is currently just the fourth best projected pitcher on the board tonight by PlateIQ, due to some cheaper pitchers in very high upside spots. It seems that matchups do make the pitcher tonight, at least in terms of projections. To read more on how top of the board pitchers project in some difficult matchups, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

FanDuel offers seven games on their main slate, starting a bit earlier tonight, while DraftKings will remain at the regular start time with five. Lucas Giolito carries the only $10K price tag on the board tonight on FanDuel ($10.3K) and is $500 cheaper on DraftKings. No other pitcher even exceeds $9K on both sites, though Cristian Javier does so on DraftKings ($9.3K), where Charlie Morton also costs exactly $9K. Giolito is the clear top pitcher on the board by cost, by point projection (PlateIQ) and by ownership projection. He’s even a top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings and currently expected to be in more than half of DK lineups. His work includes a 34.6 K%, though a 20.7 HR/FB pushes his FIP up to 3.83 and 11.1% Barrels/BBE his xERA up to 3.69. Six of his eight barrels have left the yard. Contact neutral estimators are actually below his 2.84 ERA. The Red Sox are on fire with a league leading 181 wRC+ and matching strikeout and HR/FB rates at 19.2% over the last week. They strike out only 20.4% of the time with a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season, but Giolito is a tough fade tonight. The weather and possibly the umpiring may be in his favor as well with wind blowing in from right around 10 mph.

With about one-third of his work coming out of the bullpen plus four starts, Javier has struck out 31.5% of batters faced, which makes the rest of his profile (8.1 BB%, 29 GB%, 11.1% Barrels/BBE) much more palatable. All estimators are above his 2.87 ERA, but only a 3.45 xFIP by more than half a run. Seven of his 10 runs came in one blowup start in Washington. He, too, is in a tough spot (Guardians 115 wRC+, 18.8 K% vs RHP). Javier is the second best projected pitcher on DraftKings, but just fourth on FanDuel.

Morton dominated the Padres two starts back, striking out nine of 21, allowing just a single run over six innings. It was his first start with more than five strikeouts this season and the first time where he looked remotely like the pitcher he was last year. He followed that up with five strikeouts, but three runs in 5.1 innings in Miami. Morton has just a 20.7 K% (9.3 SwStr%) on the season. Primarily a two pitch pitcher at this point (curveball, four-seam), the whiff rate on both are down a bit, while each pitch has a wOBA against within a point of .350. The curveball drops down to a .293 xwOBA (the fastball climbs further), though even that is much worse than the pitch performed last year with similar velocities and spin rates. There are some weather concerns in Atlanta, though, with wind in from RF around 10 mph, the park could play a bit more pitcher friendly than usual too. The Phillies have an even 100 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP. Morton is projected outside the top three on DK and top five on FD, but he did show he still has the upside in him two starts back, which makes him a nice GPP play on a small slate should current ownership projections below 10% hold.

A seven game Wednesday night slate offers one clear top arm among many other flawed ones. Despite a short IL stint after his first start, Lucas Giolito is off to a great start with a 37.9 K% (18.6 SwStr%) through three starts, though he has walked six of 58 batters and allowed four barrels (13.3%). Early returns on the changeup are a 51.9 Whiff%. All estimators are below three and a half. The Cubs have a team 62 wRC+ and 31.5 K% over the last seven days, while the wind is once again blowing in from left at Wrigley (though not as hard as yesterday). Giolito threw 99 pitches in his last start, so you can’t even nitpick the workload. He’s the top projected pitcher on the board tonight (PlateIQ) and one of just two to reach the $10K price point (both on FanDuel). For more on tonight's top pitchers, including the one who may be a better value than Giolito, check out Wednesday's PlateIQ Live Blog