Luis Garcia Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Yu Darvish is the only pitcher to reach the $10K mark on either site tonight with a price tag sitting at $10.1K on DraftKings. Three more reach $9K on either site, but none on both. Darvish did not answer many questions by opening the season with six no-hit innings in Arizona where he didn’t even allow a single barrel and experienced a slight velocity bump from last season because he struck out just three of 22 batters, while walking four and then the D’Backs were nearly no-hit the next night too. Even amid a massive mid-season slump last season, Darvish finished with a 22.7 K-BB% and estimators about half a run below his 4.22 ERA. This lineup will certainly be a tougher test for him, but San Francisco is a pitcher friendly park and the umpiring situation may be favorable as well. That said, Darvish projects to be popular tonight, so perhaps a fade is in order.

Dakota Hudson costs $9.5K on FanDuel and this seems erroneous, as he’s more than $3K less on DraftKings. Hudson (2-3 IP this spring) worked his way back from Tommy John surgery at the very end of last season, but has totaled just 47.2 innings since 2019. He’s an extreme ground baller (57.6 GB%), but has produced strikeout (18.1%) and walk rates (11.3%) far worse than the league average through 249.2 career innings. He also has a near 50 point platoon split with LHBs owning a .323 wOBA against him. It’s tough to recommend him even at the lower price tag.

Luis Garcia is $9.4K on DraftKings ($800 less on FD). He broke out with a 26.4 K% (16.5 K-BB%) and 3.48 ERA in 2021. Most estimators were slightly above that, but adding in the contact profile generates an even better 3.27 xERA. The only negative is that Garcia only got through six innings nine times last year, having some issues the third time through the order. This is a terrific spot against an Arizona offense that had just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP last year. If he’s on his game, he has a chance to be tonight’s top pitcher. Early projections (PlateIQ) aren’t quite as high on him, but that can change before game time.

Eric Lauer costs $9.1K on DraftKings and nearly $2K less on FanDuel. First response may be to ignore him at this cost, but he showed increased velocity in his last spring start and the Orioles have pushed the fence up and back, making it much tougher on RHBs. Lauer had a 3.19 ERA that was about a run below estimators last year, due to a .249 BABIP and 79.4 LOB%. He has the makings of a solid back end starter with a 23.9 K% and 8.4 BB%. Oddly, Lauer currently projects for around 20% ownership on DK even with the price hike.

There are so many interesting middle of the board and even lower priced arms tonight. More than we can probably cover in such a short space, so we’ll add a few quick hits below for your SP2 types. At the top of the second tier though, are German Marquez and Luis Garcia. Marquez is one of the few pitchers in the league combining an above average strikeout rate (25.1%) with more than half his contact on the ground (52.3%). He’s generated 16 quality starts this season with his 3.80 ERA nearly matching a 3.90 SIERA and 3.79 xERA. The lineup he’s projected to oppose at Wrigley includes four batters above a 25 K% vs RHP and while getting out of Coors is always a positive, a hot night at Wrigley with the wind blowing out is about the least positive you can get on the road. Marquez is still likely a strong value, especially on DraftKings for just $8.2K.

Garcia produced his lowest strikeout total (three) since his first start of the season last time out, as the Astros pulled him after just 70 pitches, his lowest pitch count since April, although he had allowed just four hits and a walk. If we assume that was just a single aberration and not the beginning of a larger pattern of conservation yet, he has a spectacular 21.3 K-BB%, allowing just 4.8% Barrels/BBE this season. A 2.53 xERA is his only estimator below his 3.30 ERA, but all remaining estimators are within one-third of a run of actual results. The Royals have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP, while five of nine projected batters exceed a 25.5 K% vs RHP. Garcia costs just $8.3K on FanDuel, where he’s likely a top value.

Andrew Heaney has allowed 16 runs and nine home runs in 22 innings as a Yankee. With a career 15.8 HR/FB, he’s going to have some problems with Yankee Stadium, but he also should be fairly effective, due to a 19.5 K-BB% this year. His FIP (4.76) and xERA (3.92) are well below his 5.51 ERA. He’s also not on the road tonight, but in a potentially more unfavorable park in Atlanta, though four of eight projected starters exceed a 25 K% vs LHP and Heaney costs just $7.5K on DraftKings. In the same price range, Eli Morgan has struck out at least eight three times but the contact profile is a real issue with just a 26.7 GB% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE. The projected Texas lineup he’ll face includes six batters above a 24 K% vs RHP this year.

The matchup in Pittsburgh includes two somewhat interesting arms in favorable matchups. Madison Bumgarner has a 1.93 ERA in seven starts back from the IL with just a 17 K% (7.9 SwStr%), meaning estimators are quite a bit higher, though not terrible (4.58 xFIP). Two things Bumgarner has done well over this stretch is throw strikes (five walks) and limit hard contact (5.6% Barrels/BBE, 87.1 mph EV). His 4.06 season ERA exactly matches his FIP and nearly his xERA (3.98) too. There is one batter in the projected Pittsburgh lineup below a 23 K% vs LHP this year. J.T. Brubaker continues to strike out batters at a decent rate (22.8% last night starts), but now also has a 10.8 BB% over his last six and has allowed multiple home runs in seven of his last nine starts with 17 in total over that span. He’s done this with just 33.6% of his contact on the ground and a 90 mph EV. The projected Arizona lineup doesn’t strike out a ton, but includes just one batter above a .175 ISO vs RHP this year. Both pitchers cost $7.1K or less on DraftKings.

Tylor Megill ($6.9K DK) threw his first quality start in five starts last time out, but is still running a 3.21 ERA with all estimators below four through 11 starts. He faces the Giants (107 wRC+ vs RHP) at home. In four starts for the Marlins, Jesus Luzardo ($6.4K DK) has struck out one more than he’s walked (17 to 16), but does have a 15.7 SwStr% with an 86.7 mph EV. The stuff is certainly still there if he can find a way to stop walking everyone. The projected Washington lineup he’ll face in Miami has just two batters above a 20.1 K% vs LHP this year though. In 34.2 major league innings, Tanner Houck has generated a 31.9 K% (second best on the board) with just a 4.9 BB% and 87.1 mph EV. In fact, his 3.12 ERA is right in line with his 3.13 xERA, but below most additional estimators, due to a .352 BAIBP and 65.4 LOB%. He’s actually much cheaper on FanDuel, but has completed five innings just twice. While the projected Minnesota lineup includes four batters above a 27 K% vs RHP, Weather Edge currently suggests Fenway could play like Coors tonight.

On just a seven game slate with two starters not yet confirmed, but expected to make their first starts of 2021, it’s a bit of a surprise that three of the remaining 12 pitchers reach the $10 K price point on FanDuel tonight, led by Shohei Ohtani at $11K. Ohtani has gone at least six innings with two runs or less in four of his last five starts, surrounding a break down at Yankee Stadium. After striking out just five of 35 batters, Ohtani bounced back striking out eight of 22 A’s with just one walk last time out. His 31.1 K% easily tops the board, but he also carries an 11.8 BB%. Although all estimators are above his 3.21 ERA, they’re all below four with only a 3.84 SIERA more than a half run removed from actual results. Ohtani is also blessed with the most favorable matchup on the board, hosting the Rockies, who have a 61 wRC+ (8.2 HR/FB) on the road and 70 wRC+ (10.6 HR/FB) vs RHP. The projected lineup has just marginal strikeout rates, but that’s more than enough, considering the expected lack of production. While Ohtani may be accurately priced on FanDuel, he still has some value for $1.8K less on DraftKings.

Do you know who has the second best strikeout rate (28.5%) and top SIERA (3.67) on this slate? His name would be Luis Garcia and he would also be the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites. He may not be as good as his 2.86 ERA (.262 BABIP, 81.4 LOB%, 9.8 HR/FB), but all non-DRA estimators are below four. Garcia also gets a park bump to one of the most negative run environments in baseball, where the home team has an 85 wRC+ and 27.5 K% at home plus a 91 wRC+ and 26 K% vs RHP. Tonight’s projected Seattle lineup includes four batters with at least a 28 K% vs RHP this year. Garcia could potentially be the top arm on the slate and the top FanDuel value for exactly $10K.

German Marquez gets a park upgrade anytime he leaves Coors, but he will still face the Angels in a positive run environment. Marquez experienced a velocity drop last time out and allowed four runs to the Mariners over six innings at Coors, striking out only five of 26 batters with just 22.2% of his contact on the ground. He had allowed a total of three runs over his previous five starts, still has a 28.9 K% over his last five starts and a 52.3 GB%, allowing just 3.5% Barrels/BBE for the year. A 3.98 SIERA is his only estimator more than one-fifth of a run removed from his 3.50 ERA. The matchup is not ideal. The Angels have a 124 wRC+ (18.7 HR/FB) at home and 103 wRC+ vs RHP. However, tonight’s projected lineup includes five batters with a 23.5 K% or higher vs RHP this year. Marquez is certainly a viable leverage play and may be a top value for $8.4K on DraftKings, assuming the velocity dip was just a blip on the radar.

Walker Buehler is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites and, in fact, he costs at least $11K on either site, more than $1K more than any other pitcher. It seems a bit of a reach to pay $11K or more for a 25.7 K%. Mostly due to a 5.4 BB%, his estimators sit in a tight range between 3.51 (DRA) and 3.69 (SIERA), all more than a run above his ERA (2.38), due to a .228 BABIP and 86.2 LOB%. He is coming off complete dominance of the Diamondbacks (11 Ks, nine of 12 batted balls on the ground) and the Cubs are a favorable matchup (93 wRC+ vs RHP, 26.1 K%) in a great park, but this is the profile of a good pitcher being priced like Jacob deGrom.

The only other pitcher who reaches even $9K on both sites is Jose Berrios. The major positive Berrios has in common with Buehler is that both are the only pitchers on the board averaging 24 batters faced per start and Berrios has also struck out a quarter of batters faced (25.7%), but with a below average swinging strike rate (10.7%), which is even lower over his last four starts (7%). Berrios has estimators very similar to Buehler too (3.65 SIERA, 3.57 FIP), though the contact profile pushes him above four (4.26 xERA). He’s a fairly volatile arm, who only has five quality starts on the season and the projected Cleveland lineup has five batters below a 17.5 K% vs RHP since 2020.

Now, let’s cover the guy who might be the top pitcher on the slate. The top strikeout and swinging strike rates on the board belong to Luis Garcia (28.1%, 13%). He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 12 starts and even that many only three times. A 3.40 xERA is his best estimator with the remainders in the upper threes. He’s only completed six innings four times, but those instances have come in his last five starts. The Tigers have a 92 wRC+ and split high 26.5 K% vs RHP this year. Six of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Garcia is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.6K), but nearly $1K less on DraftKings ($8.7K).