Luis Perdomo Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Dodgers are the west coast offense of interest tonight. At 4.96 implied runs, their the fourth highest team on the board and while Luis Perdomo generally keeps the ball on the ground, he's done so less often against LHBs since last season (55.6 GB%) and struggles to limit hard contact, which has led to a .354 wOBA/.374 xwOBA for LHBs over that span. Each of the four LHBs in the projected lineup for the Dodgers are above a 115 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Max Muncy has scorched RHP for a 171 wRC+ and .342 ISO this season. The Dodger lineup has yet to be confirmed.

There are three pitchers reaching the $10K mark among the four late afternoon games today, led by Aaron Nola against the Orioles. He's a few hundred behind Jose Berrios on FanDuel, but $13.1K on DraftKings ($1K more than anyone else pitching this afternoon) in this great matchup (Orioles 75 wRC+, 25.6 K% on the road, 83 wRC+, 24.7 K% vs RHP). He may be the top overall arm on the board for the entire day, but DraftKings has made him virtually unaffordable. A 25.2 K% is nice, but there are pitchers higher. What he adds in contact management (50.9 GB%, 86 mph aEV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE) is what really makes him a top pitcher. His .268 xwOBA is best on the board for the entire day, even better at home since last season (.252). With the exception of the ground balls, Jose Berrios (40 GB%) has some very similar numbers (25.9 K%, 86 mph aEV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE), though his xwOBA (.298) is 30 points higher, they both have a SIERA within five points of 3.50 this year. The Brewers may have a great team record, but are below a 100 wRC+ with a 25% strikeout rate both at home and vs RHP. A slightly favorable run environment and very power friendly park somewhat neutralize the matchup. Sean Manaea (17.9 K%, 4.21 SIERA, .343 xwOBA) gets the Padres (70 wRC+, 20.2 K-BB% on the road, 88 wRC+, 17.4 K-BB% vs LHP). They do, however, have some power against southpaws (13.3 HR/FB) and RHBs have a .354 xwOBA with a 38.7 Hard% against Manaea since last season. He costs just $12.1K on DraftKings. Perhaps they'll let players work out a payment plan. If the high priced pitchers are too expensive later this afternoon, what are your other options? Not many. Luis Perdomo had been banished to AAA in April, but has fared well there in 11 starts (15.3 K-BB%, 55.6 GB%. He may fare well for at the minimum price DraftKings, allowing players to pay up for one of the above pitchers if they wish, but the A's have a 108 wRC+ and 25.5 Hard-Soft% against RHP this year. Garrett Richards is in Seattle (105 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP), but hasn't pitched in the majors in three weeks, while his lone rehab start consisted of 17 batters in high A. He last exceeded 35 pitches in a major league game almost a month ago. Mike Leake costs $8.5K on FanDuel, but just $5.3K on DraftKings against the Angels (106 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP). He has just a 14.9 K% this season with an ERA and estimators all above four, but he's completed at least six innings in eight straight starts, failing to record a seventh inning out just twice in that span. He'll also be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup. Batters from that side have just a .310 wOBA and 50.5 GB% against him since last year.

The Houston Astros are a conundrum tonight. With a board best 5.51 implied run line, the expensive, top half of their lineup runs entirely right-handed until Josh Reddick (134 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2017) in the fifth spot. Though RHBs have a .344 career wOBA against him, Luis Perdomo has grounded them on 66.5% of batted balls. The only RHB in the lineup for the Astros to have exceeded a 40% fly ball rate against same handed pitchers since last season is Evan Gattis (109 wRC+, .187 ISO). Considering that players are likely to be paying up for either (or both) of Lance McCullers and/or Kyle Hendricks tonight, perhaps it's the back half of the Houston lineup the deserves stacking consideration. Marwin Gonzalez (152 wRC+, .231 ISO) merits strong consideration below $4K on either site. Brian McCann (106 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Derek Fisher (81 wRC+, .164 ISO, 46.8 hard%) are the cheapest bats in the lineup, the latter costing $3.1K or less on either site. It's not that the top half of the order are poor choices should they be affordable, but lineup construction would seem difficult and even then, a choice between Astros and Yankees, who are more likely to generate air contact in a more hitter friendly environment would seem an obvious choice (depending on weather and projected ownership rates of course).

Tonight's slate does not offer very many attractive stacking opportunities, but what it does offer is a lot of HR potential. Several of tonight's pitchers are either extreme fly ball generators, home run prone or both. Even Clayton Kershaw has allowed 20 HRs this seaon. In fact, among pitchers with at least 17 starts, only Luis Perdomo (17), Jaime Garcia (17) and Jameson Taillon (9) have failed to allow at least 20 HRs. Even among those three, Garcia struggled mightily with HRs in the past and pitches at Yankee Stadium (though his tendency for shorter outings backed by a monster bullpen may steer players away from opposing bats) while Paul Goldschmidt (3 HRs, 19 PAs) and J.D. Martinez (2 HRs, 6 PAs) have hammered Perdomo, a pitcher who generally grounds RHBs (67.8 GB% this year). The profitable approach to this slate may be in HR hunting rather than stacking a particular lineup. RHBs alone have a .415 wOBA and 18 HRs against Nick Pivetta (which may be where one of the better stacking opportunities lies if the Dodgers choose to load up that way). Dan Straily doesn't allow a ton of particularly hard contact (25% last six starts), but has allowed nine HRs over that span due to a 49.5% fly ball rate. Jharel Cotton has allowed a league average hard contact rate (31%) over his last seven or 18 starts, yet he has allowed 13 and 27 HRs over those two spans. Ervin Santana has allowed 29 HRs in 30 starts, 27 over his last 24 and has a .308 BABIP with a 4.34 ERA and 18 HRs over his last 17. The most interesting hitter on the slate may be Rhys Hoskins (217 wRC+, .643 ISO, 50 Hard%, 59.1 FB%, 40 PAs vs LHP). Sure, the sample is still very small, but he's done nearly a season's worth of damage already. Rostering batters facing Kershaw is not usually a recommended practice, but depending upon projected ownership, this could be one of those rare situations where it might be profitable. The aforementioned 20 HRs he's allowed are a career high by 25% (previous high was 16) with 14 of those being surrendered to RHBs.

The continued absence of Matt Carpenter from the lineup could help make the argument for some Luis Perdomo exposure tonight. While he hasn't been accumulating the strikeouts (15% over the last month), his 9.1 SwStr% has remained consistent with his season rate, just below league average. RHBs have a 68.1 GB% against him, but nine of the 14 HRs he's allowed. This confirmed St Louis lineup has a .344 wRC+, .180 ISO and 22.7 K% against RHP. The Cardinals have the fourth highest implied run line on the board (4.87). Dexter Fowler (128 wRC+, .247 ISO, 39.5 FB%) is the one batter that batters should have exposure to here, while Paul DeJong (126 wRC+, .265 ISO, 43.2 FB%) makes sense as a middle infield option as well. Tommy Pham (135 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP) has just a 21.7 FB% against RHP. He, Fowler and Yadier Molina all have a hard hit rate above 60% over the last week though. Luis Perdomo costs just $5.9K on DraftKings though, where Chris Sale players may need to use him as an SP2.

The Yankees game is currently delayed, which adds some risk to Tanaka, who will toe the rubber against the Tigers this afternoon. He boasts the lowest SIERA on the board (3.54) and his overall k-rate of 25.1% is 4.6% above J.A. Happ, who comes in at second. Detroit will send out a lineup with a combined .149 ISO and .312 ISO vs. RHP this season and have a 21.0% strikeout rate. As a result, they have the lowest projected run total on the early slate (3.69) and Tanaka is the biggest favorite among the six starters (+231). Fittingly, Tanaka tops our projections model Wednesday afternoon while Happ is a distant third. Ervin Santana checks in as our SP2. His opponent, the Padres, have the second-lowest implied total on the slate (3.95) and their projected lineup has a combined 23.3% strikeout rate. However, Santana's K% and SwStr% are well below Tanaka's at 18.7% and 9.3%, respectively. It appears Tanaka has a much bigger upside yet Santana's $10.2k price tag on DraftKings is $1k more than Tanaka. While both pitchers will be popular, Happ makes for an interesting GPP option - at least on two-pitcher sites - given the poor lineup Chicago will start against him. They have a combined .108 ISO, .293 ISO, and 20.3% K% against LHP over the past two seasons and only two bats have ISOs above .114 against LHP this season. He's much cheaper than the other two options. Luis Perdomo is another cheap target on Wednesday, but his 11.9% K% is concerning considering five of the eight Twins bats are expected to hit from the left side, although Minnesota has a combined 23.4% K% against RHP this year.

Luis Perdomo has the top ground ball rate among pitchers with at least 90 innings (65.3%), but has been missing very few bats over the last month (13.3 K%, 7.1 SwStr%). While he still has a 59.9 GB% against LHBs this year, they still have a .379 wOBA due to just a 2.2 K-BB% and 34.1 Hard%. RHBs not named Cespedes (145 wRC+, 42.9 Hard% last seven days) are off limits (70.2 GB%, 23.1 K%). Michael Conforto is the most useful New York bat. He has a 164 wRC+ and .306 ISO vs RHP this year and a 218 wRC+ over the last week. With an implied run line just third from the bottom (4.44) and lots of ground balls expected, there's not a lot of allure on either side of this matchup.

Although three pitchers sit higher on the Daily K Predictor than Lance McCullers at 5.55, he should be the easy and safest pitching choice tonight at home against Seattle. The RotoGrinders Player Projections see it that way as well, as he's the only pitcher projected for more than 20 points on DraftKings tonight. It may appear as if he's struggled with eight ERs over his last 9.2 innings, but with a 12.2 SwStr%, 62.9 GB% and -8.6 Hard-Soft%, there doesn't appear to be much reason for concern. Seattle also has just an 83 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. There are other interesting arms on the slate, like Jon Lester, projected for the most strikeouts (6.31) via the Daily K Predictor, but he's gotten absolutely hammered over his last two starts (5.2 IP – 15 H – 16 R – 9 ER – 3 HR – 4 BB – 6 K – 37 BF). He seems to have had a difficult time throwing strike one, forcing him to come with more hittable fastballs. One approach tonight might be to look for projected ownership numbers and adjust exposure accordingly, potentially hedging against him if playing multiple lineups. If recent outings are going to scare players away, you still want to consider the long term body of work, but he may be worth fading or limiting exposure if it looks like he's going to be highly owned. Marcus Stroman leads all qualified pitchers in ground ball rate (60.9%) and has a league average strikeout rate (20.4%), but he does not stifle contact (88.3 mph aEV) and though the Red Sox have just a 90 wRC+ at home and 92 wRC+ vs RHP, they make contact and Fenway isn't very forgiving. Luis Perdomo with a 67% ground ball rate and near league average stirkeout rate may be interesting in combination with McCullers on DraftKings for $4.9K. The Rockies have a major league worst 76 wRC+ vs RHP. Brent Suter could be the other low cost arm to consider. He has struck out 13 of 48 with a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over two starts this month. In 27.1 total innings this season, he has a 15.0 K-BB% with excellent contact management (3.8 Hard-Soft%). Pittsburgh is a significant park upgrade for him as well.

According to Baseball Savant, not only does George Springer have three HRs in nine PAs against Ariel Miranda, but he also has a 94.6 mph aEV on seven batted balls. No other player on the slate has as many HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight, though Nolan Arenado is the only batter who exceeds a 90 mph aEV on those who have two. In nine PAs and eight BBEs against Luis Perdomo, he's averaged a 96.6 mph aEV. Perdomo has held RHBs to a 68.3 GB% since entering the league though. Another ground ball pitcher, Marcus Stroman (RHBs 59.6 GB% since last season) does not have much a split and a couple of Red Sox have hit him fairly hard. Xander Bogaerts has one HR, but three extra-base hits in 20 PAs with a 97.4 mph aEV (14 BBEs) and Mookie Betts has just a double in 19 PAs, but a 96.1 mph aEV on 12 BBEs. On the other side of that matchup, Jose Bautista has an interesting history with Eduardo Rodriguez. In 15 PAs, he has just one HR and one K, but a 94.4 mph aEV (12 BBEs).