Luis Valbuena Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Kole Calhoun moves to leadoff in a high upside spot in Baltimore
Kole Calhoun finds himself in the leadoff spot for the Angels in Baltimore, where Vegas has set the line at 5.37 runs, second best on the board, against David Hess. Calhoun hasn't been much against RHP over the last calendar year (75 wRC+, .138 ISO), but does at least have a 110 wRC+ and 53.9 Hard% over the last week, along with a low price tag in front of Mike Trout (184 wRC+, .308 ISO) and Justin Upton (123 wRC+, .228 ISO). Andrelton Simmons (113 wRC+, .141 ISO) and Luis Valbuena (98 wRC+, .240 ISO) are the only other league average bats against RHP.
Attacking the Worst Pitcher on the Slate
It's been rough sledding for David Hess at the major league level, and there is nothing in his profile that sticks out as remotely positive. His strikeout rate is well below average at just 13%, his walks are elevated, and his SIERA is nearing six. He profiles as a splits-neutral arm and has actually allowed more hard contact to RHBs than LHBs this year. The Angels are clearly in play as a top stack tonight, with Trout being the "spendy" option with obvious potential, while the likes of Kinsler, Valbuena, and Simmons carry potential without breaking the bank.
Angels lack the left-handed bats with which to attack Rick Porcello
Ric Porcello still has some platoon issues (LHBs .340 wOBA, .346 xwOBA, 40.5 Hard%, 33.7 GB%) since last season, but this season, he's held batters from either side below a .300 wOBA (LHBs .294, though with similar hard hit and ground ball rates). There's also the fact that the Angels lack the bats from that side of the plate with which to attack him with. However, they still have a smack in the middle of the board 4.42 implied run line in one of the most positive run environments in play tonight. If necessary, Luis Valbuena (96 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) could provide some value for $3.2K or less at a corner infield spot. His 140 wRC+ over the last week is highest in the lineup. Then there's Mike Trout (185 wRC+, .311 ISO), who players should have the money to afford at more than $5K tonight. However, he has just a 45 wRC+ and 16.7 Hard% over the last week as a finger injury has forced him to DH and his numbers against Porcello are less than stellar as well. In 34 PAs, he does have two HRs with a .343 wOBA, but since Statcast began recording batted balls in 2015, he has just a .278 xwOBA against him.
Value Power
It feels SUPER weird to consider Valbuena as a top overall hitter on this slate but context is everything. Lineup construction has me locking in high priced starting pitching which means I need value somewhere and Valbuena is a guy that provides that + roster flexibility due to multi-positional eligibility. Valbuena has had a tough season offensively (outside of his two HR game two games ago) but has shown a strong skill-set versus RHP during the latter parts of his career (owned an ISO north of .200 vs RHP from 2014-2017).
Low-Cost Power Hunting
If you are looking to save some salary with your bats tonight, I don't mind a mini-stack of some of the more affordable Angels' bats. I don't like to full stack against a pitcher like Marco Estrada, a massive fly ball guy who rarely gets completely shelled but does tend to give up the long ball. Luis Valbuena and Kole Calhoun are both dirt cheap and showed signs of life on Thursday with big games, and I like them as punts or one-off plays in all formats, while the likes of Kinsler and Simmons also won't break the bank. Of course, you can always play Mike Trout as well against a pitcher who allows a ton of fly balls and has an xFIP and SIERA around 5.00 for the year.
High Risk, High Reward, Cheap Bat
Romero is a good young pitcher, but there is one thing that he's struggled with greatly since coming into the majors and that is hard contact. On the year, Romero owns a 38.7% hard hit rate and Valbuena on the other side of the plate draws the platoon split and owns a .211 ISO, 50% FB%, and a 35% hard hit rate vs. RHP since 2017. Without Ohtani in this lineup, the Angels have been throwing Valbuena into the middle of this lineup for some lefty power and considering his 3.2k price tag and the fact that he's hitting in a much better ballpark on the road here I'm going to have a lot of ownership.
Stack 'Em Up Against a Bad Pitcher
Ian Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher who has really been struggling of late, and his numbers have slowly been regressing for the better part of three seasons now. Mike Trout is an obvious choice this evening if you have the salary to fit him in, but the other Angels' hitters are intriguing as well. With both Albert Pujols and Andrelton Simmons sidelined, we get an opportunity to get some other hitters in the middle of the order at reasonable price tags. Luis Valbuena should be in a prime lineup spot against a pitcher that he matches up well against, and he's my sneaky call for a home run this evening.
Chris Tillman has a .479 xwOBA (91.4 mph aEV) even after one-hitting Detroit
The Tigers made Chris Tillman look like a Cy Young candidate for seven one hit innings and optimistically, one can see 10 strikeouts vs just three walks over his last two starts, but he allowed three HRs to Cleveland two starts back and has failed to hold the opposition below four runs in four of his five starts. He has a total of just 13 strikeouts this year (5.8 SwStr%) with a .479 xwOBA (91.4 mph aEV, 11.4% Barrels/BBE, 51.4% 95+ mph EV). The Angels have a 5.16 implied run line that's second on the board in a negative run environment. This calls for heavy exposure to the stars of a stars and scrubs lineup, though players must realize they certainly won't be the only ones on Los Angeles bats tonight. Batters from either side are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against Tillman since last season. Even Ian Kinsler (83 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Albert Pujols (86 wRC+, .172 ISO) at reasonable costs can be sprinkled in with Mike Trout (189 wRC+, .351 ISO), Justin Upton (113 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (211 wRC+, .410 ISO). Andrelton Simmons (110 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Luis Valbuena (96 wRC+, .228 ISO) are viable as well.
Two extreme fly ball pitchers faces off in Houston with the roof expected to be open
The Angels have the second lowest implied run line on the afternoon slate (3.18) in their matchup against Justin Verlander, one of the two Aces on the early board. Verlander has missed six innings just by a single out once this season, striking out at least nine in three of five starts, allowing more than a single run just once. Only Max Scherzer has averaged more innings per start than his 6.5 over the last two calendar years or has a highest strikeout rate than his 31.7% this year on this board. While he's not going to sustain a .197 BABIP, Verlander is an extreme fly ball pitcher (29.7%) with a high IFFB rate (14.3%) and low Z-Contact rate (76.6%), which profiles well for his mark in the future. This helps his xwOBA (.282) stay below .300 despite still being well above his actual. He's not in an ideal spot against an offense with a 109 wRC+ and 18.6 K% vs RHP, but he does get to face them in a negative run environment, though perhaps a bit less negative with the roof expected to be open. Considering the extreme fly ball profile without much of a platoon split for Verlander, Mike Trout (190 wRC+, .436 xwOBA, .355 ISO, 41.2 Hard%, 47.1 FB% since 2017) is a reasonable play, even against one of the top pitchers in the league. Justin Upton (118 wRC+, .230 ISO, 39.6 Hard%), Zack Cozart (127 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Luis Valbuena (97 wRC+, .227 ISO) exhibit significant pop against RHP as well since last season. The Astros have the third highest implied run line at 4.82 against Nick Tropeano, who pitched well against Kansas City and then struggled against the Red Sox since returning from TJ surgery. It's difficult to draw a lot of analysis from those two matchups on opposite ends of the offensive spectrum, but Tropeano has a career 35 point difference in a standard platoon splite merely because his walk rate is double against LHBs. Batters from either side have a ground ball rate below 30% with something around league average strikeout and hard hit rates. Players not paying up for pitching, may certainly like the big three at a high cost (all above 125 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since last season). Josh Reddick (136 wRC+, .199 ISO), Yulieski Gurriel (129 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Alex Bregman (112 wRC+, .165 ISO) cost around $1K less. Marwin Gonzalez (148 wRC+, .217 ISO) cheaper still, though there's a 43 point drop from his wOBA to his xwOBA vs RHP since last season. All except Gurriel (108) exceed a 140 wRC+ over the last week, though only Gonzalez, George Springer and Carlos Correa are above a 25% hard hit rate over that span.
Luis Valbuena (.235 ISO vs RHP since 2017) is a low priced play vs a pitcher who allowed 19 HRs to LHBs last year
Jeff Samardzija makes his first start of the season off just 2.2 innings in high A ball. He did strike out five of 15 batters, but allowed six runs. He did allow 19 HRs to LHBs last year (.335 xwOBA) and that was with pitching half his games in San Francisco. A low priced Luis Valbuena (102 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP since last season, 180 wRC+ last seven days) could fit nicely into lineups tonight. Shohei Ohtani may be a more difficult fit. Kole Calhoun (96 wRC+, .143 ISO) drops to eighth and could find himself on the bench soon.