Luiz Gohara Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
High Risk / High Reward
I'm really interested in Gohara tonight, and I'm interested in what this lineup will look like for the Phillies. There is risk here for sure, but on a slate with deGrom, I'm willing to attack the upside that Gohara has. He's been working out of the bullpen, but the Atlanta beat writer told me this morning that he's stretched out. I would expect him to pitch at least 80 pitches tonight as long as he's pitching well. He posted a 25.2% strikeout rate with a 3.83 xFIP and a 6.5% walk rate in 2017. He struggled with right-handed power hitters, and that’s the one thing I'm worried about playing him tonight. Some of these righties have big strikeout rates against lefties, and Gohara was elite against lefties. Again, I really like the risk/reward in this spot, and I'm hoping it works out.
Luiz Gohara has exceeded a 25 K% at four different levels of play this year
Luiz Gohara was predictably thumped in his second consecutive start against the Nationals two starts back, but responded by striking out nine Phillies. The 21 year-old flame thrower flew through several levels of the minors this season, but did have a double digit walk rate at AAA (seven starts). He did not walk a single National over those two starts, but has walked six of 45 batters in his other two starts. The Marlins actually strike out a bit less than league average and have just a 3.5 Hard-Soft% against LHP, mostly due to Marcell Ozuna’s lack of power production against them this season (114 ISO, 28.1 FB%). Giancarlo Stanton (202 wRC+, .455 ISO vs LHP) is certainly a strong bat tonight, but J.T. Realmuto (123 wRC+, .204 ISO) is the other other batter in the lineup with an ISO above .130 vs LHP this year (30 PA min.). Gohara has exceeded a 25 K% at four different levels of play this year and is an interesting, if high risk, play tonight.
Tyler Glasnow struck out 38.5% of batters in 15 AAA starts after being sent down
There are five rookie arms on the mound tonight, the most notable of which is Dinelson Lamet and his 18 starts. His 29.7 K% is second only to Max Scherzer on the slate and he's squashed contact over his last eight starts (-3.9 Hard-Soft%). However, he has not exceeded six innings in any of his last four starts, walking 16 of 98 batters and faces a Minnesota offense with a 109 wRC+ at home, 103 wRC+ vs RHP and 154 wRC+ over the last week. Of the other four, Tyler Glasnow is the only one with more than three major league starts. He's been pretty terrible in 12 at the major league level this season (7.9 K-BB%, 7.45 ERA, 5.08 SIERA, 7.48 DRA). He was sent down in June and has made 15 starts at AAA with a 38.5 K% since (29.7 K-BB%). That alone may make him worth another look tonight at a reasonably low cost. Throw in that he's facing Milwaukee (26 K% at home and vs RHP, 28.9 K% last seven days) and he becomes difficult to ignore. Jack Flaherty is a prospect of some note (#57 in Fangraphs mid-season update) and has struck out 10 of his first 42 batters, striking out a quarter of them at both AA and AAA this season. He did walk four Padres last time out and the Reds could be his toughest test to date after facing the Padres, and Giants, but they are merely a league average offense at best in a slightly negative run environment. He has a 51.9 GB% and 25.9 Hard% in two starts and St Louis suppresses power as well as any park in the majors when it's not overly hot outside. Luiz Gohara is a 21 year-old who started the season in A ball and has blasted his way through three levels to reach the majors. His lowest strikeout rate has been 26.7% at A ball this season, but he walked four of 20 major league batters in his debut after a 10.4 BB% at AAA. There's obvious talent there for a pitcher to move so fast through the system at such a young age, but the Nationals offer a tough matchup where he's not likely to get away with so many walks. Tyler Mahle was just 16th in the Cincinnati system with a 45 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs this pre-season. He had a 15.8 K-BB% at AAA this season, but just a 2.9 K-BB% through three major league starts to go along with solid contact management (58.7 GB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%, 83.7 mph aEV). The Fangraphs Scouting Report suggested marginal stuff and the potential to struggle against LHBs. So far, he's not shown enough to be useful in a daily fantasy setting yet.