Luke Weaver Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

This will be a bullpen game for the Marlins. Jordan Holloway has never started a major league game, but last pitched five days ago, throwing three innings and 61 pitches. Theoretically, he could be stretched enough to cover nearly five innings here with some efficiency, though the Marlins have not named a starting pitcher yet. He’s struck out 10 of 37 batters faced with a 10.5 SwStr% and has yet to allow a Barrel on 24 BBE. Fangraphs recently ranked him their 35th best prospect, profiling more as a reliever. Either way, the Diamondbacks are going to see a lot of the Miami bullpen, which has a 2.34 ERA and 2.97 FIP over the last 30 days, both top three marks in the majors. The Diamondbacks would prefer to see LHP because they have just an 88 wRC+ vs RHP. Among projected starters, David Peralta tops the lineup with a 115 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and Eduardo Escobar has the top ISO at .208. Interesting to note that the Diamonbacks’ website states that the roof will be open for this game, but Statcast’s new Park Factors suggests that wOBA and HRs decrease substantially under open air conditions over the last three years. Perhaps a humidor effect?

A 13.8 K-BB% represents the second consecutive season of decline for Luke Weaver. Six of 10 Barrels (11.2%) have left the yard with a career high 92.2 mph EV and just 35.6% of his contact on the ground. Some name recognition, along with a favorable matchup, might over-inflate his ownership rates. The numbers just mentioned might provide some incentive to go underweight. The Marlins do have just an 86 wRC+, 27.2 K% and 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP. Weaver doesn’t have much of a split with batters from either side of the plate between a .322 and .336 wOBA and xwOBA against him since 2019. Four batters in the projected lineup are above a 100 wRC+, but only three above a .170 ISO since 2019. If there were a spot where Weaver were going to exceed his current season marks, this is in, but he costs an unsightly $9K on DraftKings. For $1.5K less on FanDuel, he does have the potential to be one of the better values on the board.

Luke Weaver allowed three runs in his last start, but it was only the second time in seven starts he’d allowed more than two, coming off two seven inning outings. He’s sitting on an impressive 20.4 K-BB% this season. His 2.96 DRA is one of only four marks below three on a strong pitching board tonight. While a lot of people may be more focused on the other side of this matchup, and rightfully so (Chris Paddack 28.5 K%, 2.07 DRA, 86 mph aEV, .261 xwOBA), Weaver is quite a bit cheaper ($1K less on DK) in a pretty favorable spot of his own. The Padres have just an 82 wRC+ and 21 K-BB% vs RHP this year. San Diego is still firmly a negative run environment and an early look at conditions suggest there might be even further benefit for pitcher’s tonight (Weather Edge is available to premium subscribers).

Luke Weaver has allowed just seven runs total over his last five starts with a strikeout rate that’s up to 32.2% over that span. He also hasn’t walked more than a single batter in any of those starts. Perhaps just as importantly, Weaver has recorded seventh inning outs in three of those five starts. More strikeouts, fewer runs, and working deeper into games…what’s not to like here? The matchup may be a bit dangerous. The Braves have a 10.6 BB% and 26.5 Hard-Soft% against RHP, but there might be enough strikeouts here (Braves 22.3 K% vs RHP) and Arizona plays much more fairly since the installment of the humidor. Weaver should at least make for a solid secondary pitcher on DraftKings ($8K) with four pitchers at least $1K more on a five game slate. He is a tad more expensive on FanDuel ($8.8K).

Luke Weaver is an intriguing arm Friday night at home vs. the Padres at an affordable price across the industry. Weaver showed plenty of promise in 60 IP in 2017 before struggling over a larger 136 IP sample last year. Weaver hasn’t been great with a 4.80 xFIP in 9.1 IP to start 2019, but his numbers could be worse given tough matchups vs. the Dodgers and Red Sox. Tonight, he’ll have the platoon advantage against all but 1 batter in the Padres’ lineup which is important given his splits (since 2017, .337 xwOBA, 20.7 K% vs. LHB versus a .309 xwOBA and 25 K% vs. RHB). The Padres have just 2 batters (Manny Machado, Wil Myers) in their lineup who had an xwOBA > .320 vs. RHP last year. Weaver had just a 7.99 K/9 in 2018 and is sitting at a 6.7 K/9 right now, but projects to have some K upside going forward as he did have a 10.74 mark in 2017 and Steamer projects him at 8.83 for 2019. The Padres have a 4.38 implied run total vs. Weaver and the D-Backs Friday night.

Luke Weaver is a decent pitcher at a reasonable cost, but this Washington lineup has four LHBs above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, while batters from that side have a .330 wOBA against Weaver since the start of the 2017 season. St Louis is generally a negative run environment and power suppressing park, but Kevin's forecast today calls for significant humidity which could boost offense and enhance power for Bryce Harper (131 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Juan Soto (151 wRC+, .230 ISO). Weaver is probably fine at his price on a board without much upside, but it's not going to be easy and players should certainly consider some potent bats on the other side of this matchup as well.

On a seven game slate on Thursday night, no pitcher reaches $10K on either site. Clay Buchholz is the most expensive pitcher on either site ($9.5K DK). Two pitchers exceed a 22% strikeout rate. One is Taylor Cole, who has a grand total of 18 major league innings, one start and has not exceeded 48 pitches in a major league outing. The other is Jon Gray (27.1%) with the .337 BABIP, who is facing the Braves (20.4 K% vs RHP). While he did allow four runs to the Dodgers last time out, in 35 innings since returning from the minors, he's allowed just nine ERs with a .204 BABIP and 52.4 GB%, but just a 21.5 K%. However, the arsenal has included more sliders, fewer fastballs and a 14+ SwStr% in four straight games. Anywhere outside of Coors is a park upgrade and he's gone at least seven innings in four of his last five starts. It's hard not to consider him the top pitcher on this board. At .299, his xwOBA is also best on the board among those with more than one start. Another arm to consider tonight is Tanner Roark. Though it comes with just a 9.4 SwStr%, his 24.1 K% over the last month is best on the board (more than one start). His .240 xwOBA over this span is best on the board by 40 points. He's gone at least seven innings in four straight starts with just an 18.3 Hard%. His 86.8 mph aEV for the season is second best on the board to the pitcher he is facing (Luke Weaver 86.7 mph aEV). Ironically, both Gray and Roark are facing offense's who's high powered leadoff men were plunked last night and both questionable tonight. The fact that St Louis will run out a predominantly right-handed lineup plays in Roark's favor as well. Weaver (21 K%, 4.30 SIERA, .335 xwOBA) is probably a spot where some players will land for $7K in one of the most negative run environments on the board and he is a reasonable choice with at least six innings with five or more strikeouts and two runs or fewer in four of his last six starts, but Washington at full health is a difficult lineup to navigate (10.6 K-BB% vs RHP) and he will throw in a stinker every once in a while. Buchholz (20.9 K%, 4.12 SIERA, .327 xwOBA) can be considered too in San Diego (82 wRC+, 18.0 K-BB% vs RHP).