| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | k | 2ba | ab | sho | w | hra | l | er | cg | ip | ha | 3ba | bba | sba | ibba | whip | hbp | qstart | 1ba | k/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-16 | vs. HOU | $6.1K | $6.2K | -9.9 | -8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2.7 |
| 2019-04-08 | @ BAL | $7.3K | $6.5K | -3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6.75 |
| 2019-04-03 | vs. BOS | $5.2K | $6.2K | 11 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5.1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.75 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5.07 |
| 2019-03-29 | vs. LAA | $5.8K | $5.9K | 17.1 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 |
| 2019-03-21 | vs. SEA | $5.8K | -- | 3.65 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 |
| 2018-09-24 | vs. HOU | $4.1K | $5.9K | -0.3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4.2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.93 |
| 2018-09-19 | @ BAL | $4.8K | $5.8K | 18.5 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7.5 |
| 2018-09-14 | @ NYY | $4.8K | $5.8K | -12 | -10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.38 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6.77 |
| 2018-09-07 | vs. CLE | $4.1K | $6K | 14.7 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.17 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7.5 |
| 2018-09-01 | @ MIA | $5.2K | $6.8K | -6.85 | -2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4.1 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2.54 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.08 |
| 2018-08-26 | vs. PHI | $6K | $7.1K | -8.1 | -3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2018-08-20 | vs. BAL | $6.8K | $7.1K | 12 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5.1 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1.88 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6.75 |
| 2018-08-15 | @ KC | $7.1K | $7.1K | 12.8 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.05 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4.05 |
| 2018-08-10 | vs. TB | $7.1K | $7.4K | 9.8 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10.13 |
| 2018-08-04 | @ SEA | $5.4K | $7.1K | 23.95 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5.14 |
| 2018-07-30 | @ OAK | $5.3K | $7.6K | -3.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2018-07-03 | vs. NYM | $7.4K | $8.4K | -2.45 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
| 2018-06-27 | @ HOU | -- | -- | 1.85 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.8 |
| 2018-06-22 | @ LAA | -- | -- | 22.75 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2018-06-16 | vs. WSH | -- | -- | 24 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5.41 |
| 2018-06-10 | vs. BAL | -- | -- | 28.5 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13.5 |
| 2018-06-05 | vs. NYY | -- | -- | 19.9 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 2018-05-29 | @ BOS | -- | -- | -1.95 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.91 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2.46 |
| 2018-05-24 | vs. LAA | -- | -- | -1.65 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4.1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.08 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2.08 |
| 2018-05-18 | vs. OAK | -- | -- | 16.8 | 33 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6.2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8.11 |
| 2018-05-12 | vs. BOS | -- | -- | 10.7 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7.5 |
| 2018-05-06 | @ TB | -- | -- | 14.7 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4.5 |
| 2018-05-01 | @ MIN | -- | -- | 4.45 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5.4 |
| 2018-04-26 | vs. BOS | -- | -- | 5.85 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2018-04-20 | @ NYY | -- | -- | 8.45 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7.2 |
| 2018-04-11 | @ BAL | -- | -- | 5.6 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11.25 |
| 2018-04-06 | @ TEX | -- | -- | 25.9 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10.5 |
| 2018-03-31 | vs. NYY | -- | -- | 9.55 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.57 |
Marco Estrada Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Elite third base play against a reverse split, home run prone pitcher
The Houston Astros get a park upgrade tonight and face a RHP with a fairly sizable platoon split. This makes them the lowest of four teams above five implied runs tonight (5.21) in Toronto. Marco Estrada has allowed RHBs a .388 wOBA with 18 HRs this season. Believe it or not, Alex Bregman (155 wRC+, .243 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP this season in tonight's lineup. Despite a 30 wRC+ over the last week, he's an elite third base play at a reduced price of $4.5K on DraftKings. Jose Altuve (145 wRC+, .147 ISO) and George Springer (114 wRC+, .156 ISO) are the only other players in among the first eight in the order above a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year.
Value in a weak lineup against a pitcher that gets smashed by same-handed batters (.400 wOBA)
Marco Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher (23%) with a park downgrade in Baltimore and RHBs have an astounding .400 wOBA against him. That's how you get the Orioles to 4.51 implied runs. It's a problem that the only batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP is batting ninth. The only other batter above even a .160 ISO vs RHP is Trey Mancini (101 wRC+, .198 ISO). He's also the only batter in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ or 27 Hard% over the last week (170 wRC+, 37.5 Hard%). Adam Jones (106 wRC+, .155 ISO) seems viable as well with Joey Rickard (84 wRC+, .145 ISO) costing just $3.2K on DK and batting second.
Extreme flyball pitcher facing powerful lineup in an extreme power friendly park
The Yankees have the top implied run line on the board at home against Marco Estrada. This is expected and not even close. No other team is within one-half run. Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher in one of the most power friendly parks in the majors. By extreme fly ball pitcher, that means a GB rate below 25%. While LHBs have been just average against him (.314 wOBA), RHBs pound him (.395 wOBA). Not a good omen against a lineup full of RHBs who hit same-handed pitching well and for power. Andrew McCutchen (110 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP this year) gains a lot of value in the leadoff spot at a reasonable price. He has the lowest ISO vs RHP among the first eight batters. Miguel Andujar (132 wRC+, .219 ISO) has hit RHP better than Giancarlo Stanton (107 wRC+, .204 ISO). Aaron Hicks (128 wRC+, .188 ISO) drops to third and has a -49 wRC+ (11.8 Hard%) over the last seven days.
Top implied run line vs reverse split righty
Marco Estrada has a very large reverse split (RHBs .390 wOBA, LHBs .320) that's backed up by Statcast (RHBs .383 xwOBA, LHBs .324). While Jose Ramirez (170 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP this year) and Francisco Lindor (127 wRC+, .258 ISO) play well in any spot, Edwin Encarnacion (116 wRC+, .256 ISO) may be the only other interesting bat in this lineup. He's the only RHB above a 75 wRC+ or .150 ISO vs RHP in the lineup. In fact, Yonder Alonso (105 wRC+, .201 ISO) is the only other bat in the lineup period above a 91 wRC+ or .160 ISO and he has a -38 wRC+ over the last seven days. Despite these lower lineup inefficiencies, the first half of the order is so strong that the Indians still top the board with a 5.17 implied run line.
Marco? Polo!
Estrada has not been good this season. In fact, he has been quite bad. In 21 starts, he owns a 5.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that relies on strikeouts and pop-ups for his success. The problem is that he hasn’t had many of those this season. With that said, it’s hard to argue with a matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .301 with a strikeout rate of 24%. We’ve been streaming pitchers against Baltimore for the last month, so why stop now?
Limited Upside But A Nice Floor
There is nothing special about the numbers for Marco Estrada this season, but when looking at this slate, he makes some sense as an SP2. Baltimore is one of the worst teams in baseball, and they're even worse against right-handed pitching. With top end arms like Wheeler and Cole, paying down at SP2 makes sense to fit in some of these bats in good spots. The projected starters for Baltimore have a .129 ISO with a .292 wOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Estrada has struggled against righties and lefties at times this season, but as a massive fly ball pitcher against a team with limited power, he should get some easy outs in this game and return some value at this price point.
High Strikeouts, Zero Power
The way the slate is shaping up we may see Marco Estrada come in as semi-chalky at SP2 on multi-starting pitcher sites. That's less of a testament to Estrada's skill-set than the matchup he finds himself in as the Blue Jays host a brutal Baltimore offensive. With Mark Trumbo expected to head to the DL, PlateIQ has the O's projected lineup with a 26% strikeout rate against RHP and virtually zero power with a .129 ISO. While I'm not high on Estrada individually, I do think he should be able to work his way through this terrible lineup and pay of his cheap price tag.
Hottest team in the league facing HR prone pitcher returning from DL
Only one of tonight's eight west coast teams are above a 4.1 implied run line that's the hottest offense on the board, the Oakland A's (4.53 runs), who have a team 142 wRC+ over the last week. Marco Estrada last faced more than three major league batters more than a month ago and struck out just one of 24 batters in that start. He faced 14 AAA batters six days ago, allowing two HRs. Estrada has a reverse split. RHBs have a .364 wOBA and 26 GB% against him since last season and 10 of his 15 HRs allowed this season. Considering tonight's projected lineup, Matt Chapman (126 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) would be extremely interesting in the top half of the order. Khris Davis (140 wRC+, .301 ISO) has a 177 wRC+ with five HRs over the last seven days.
Both pitchers in Houston come into the game having pitched well in recent starts
Both later afternoon starts have the home team a bit more than a single implied run above the visitor at around 4.6 to 3.4. If the early game is untenable due weather conditions, Dallas Keuchel is the best pitcher on the slate. He's not allowed an earned run over 12 innings in his last two starts (both the Royals) with 11 Ks. Both his strikeout (18.5%) and ground ball (54.3%) rates are down, but his 4.8% Barrels/BBE is still tied for second best for the entire day. He is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, around $9K on either site, and pitching in the most negative run environment on the board against a Toronto offense with a 91 wRC+ against LHP, but just a 21.4 K% against them as well. Steve Pearce (115 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Kendrys Morales (142 wRC+, .180 ISO) are both $3.5K or less on either site in the middle of this lineup. Marco Estrada has four straight starts of at least six innings with two runs or fewer and has a 23.9 K% over the last month. He's worth a flier as much as any pitcher is on a three game slate where one of them has serious weather concerns, especially in the most favorable run environment. Working against him is a reverse split that has seen RHBs own a .363 wOBA against him since last year. That's dragged down to .337 by xwOBA, but still more than enough for concern against a Houston offense with several bats who excel against same-handed pitching. George Springer (122 wRC+, .197 ISO), Alex Bregman (133 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Jose Altuve (169 wRC+, .184 ISO) are best by wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year. No batter in the lineup is below 100.
Gary Sanchez has four career HRs (22 PAs) against Marco Estrada (five HRs in 12 IP vs Yankees this year)
A Yankee lineup without Aaron Judge has the second highest implied run line on the board (5.59) against Marco Estrada, who has allowed less than three runs in just two starts this year and has already surrendered five HRs to the Yankees in just 12 innings against them this year. This remains an incredibly powerful lineup even in absence of Judge. The lowest ISO against RHP over the last calendar year belongs to Brett Gardner (lineup leading 280 wRC+ last seven days) at .163 without anyone else below .185. Gary Sanchez (114 wRC+, .252 ISO) has been struggling with a -12 wRC+ and 9.1 Hard% over the last week, but has some amazing numbers against Estrada. In 22 PAs, he has four HRs and a .505 xwOBA. Incredibly, those are his only hits against Estrada despite just four strikeouts as well. Estrada does have a significant reverse platoon. RHBs have a .371 wOBA against him since last year with LHBs 61 points lower.