Martin Perez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A small six game holiday evening slate still includes four $10K pitchers, along with another exceeding $9K on both sites, which is essentially half the slate, especially when you consider the two pitchers making their major league debuts tonight, who are not both available on both sites. The most expensive pitcher on the board is…Triston McKenzie??? Costing $10.7K on DraftKings and $200 less on FanDuel, striking out 25 of his last 70 batters, McKenzie is up to a 25.2 K% (18.7 K-BB%) with the only issue lying in his contact profile (31.6 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.3% Barrels/BBE). With a .231 BABIP and 80.2 mph EV, his 3.18 ERA is more than a quarter of a run below all estimators, including a matching 3.91 FIP and xFIP. McKenzie’s last outing was only the third time he’s failed to complete six innings in 21 starrts. Kansas City is one of just two positive run environments on the slate (assuming a roof closure in Houston), but the home team has just a 91 wRC+, 22.2 K% and 8.7 HR/FB vs RHP. McKenzie is tonight’s third best projecting pitcher, but just a middle of the board projected value.

Most expensively on FanDuel ($10.6K), with at least five runs in two of his last five outings (both against the Astros ironically), including last time out, a lot of people believe this is finally regression punishing Martin Perez. While his 7.9 HR/FB is likely unsustainable, more than half (11) of his 18 barrels (3.9%) have gone out and he’s also working with a career high 21.7 K% with the caveat being that his 8.4 SwStr% is barely above his career rate (8.2%). However, an average strikeout rate with a great contact profile (51.8 GB%, 34.5% 95+ mph EV) projects a 3.43 xERA that’s only a half run higher than his 2.89 ERA and 4.17 DRA is his only estimator above four. One area of concerns is a 12.2 BB% over his last eight starts, but the strikeout rate is up to 25.3% over this span, while only failing to go six innings three times. This price tag is absurd in Houston (118 wRC+, 17.9 K%, 13.0 HR/FB vs LHP). Perez projects in the bottom quartile of pitchers tonight and as a bottom two value, even for $2.5K less on DraftKings. He may be a bit better than people want to believe, but not nearly as good as daily fantasy sites are suggesting at these prices.

Blake Snell walked more than two batters for the first time in eight starts last time out and nearly has his walk rate (10.2%) in single digits, while sustaining a 30.8 K%. He’s even completed six innings in four of his last seven. Sustaining a 20 point gap between his strikeout and walk rates results in estimators all more than one-third of a run below his 3.87 ERA, but above three. The .324 BABIP has been a killer. In a firmly negative run environment, though with potentially hitter friendly weather, he faces an offense with just a 91 wRC+ and 23.1 K% vs LHP, but one that has injected some new blood lately (125 wRC+, 20.2 K% last seven days). Snell is tonight’s top projecting pitcher and second best projected value by a smidgen on FanDuel, though he ties for just the fourth best value projection on DraftKings, despite being $100 cheaper. This is probably where we should the bulk of the ownership to go tonight, but check back later for that.

A board high 20.9 CStr% affords Brady Singer a 25.1 K% with just a 9.7 SwStr%. It’s within a range of supportable outcomes, but just barely. This has really been the crux of his improvement (19.0 K-BB%), as his ground ball rate is down (47.1%) and his exit velocity and barrels are up (89.5 mph, 8.4%). He has generated 56% of his contact on the ground over his last three starts though. The White Sox snapped a string of nine straight starts with at least six innings last time out. A 3.82 ERA is the only estimator more than one-third of a run removed from his 3.33 ERA. The positive run environment is less a problem than the matchup here. The Guardians have a 102 wRC+ and 17.5 K% vs RHP. They have just a 55 wRC+ over the last week, but with just a 15.9 K% (1.8 HR/FB). Singer projects as a middle of the board, but as a bottom quartile value even at his $1.5K lower price on DraftKings.

Andrew Heaney has struck out 28 of his last 68 and 35.4% of batters through 10 starts this season. The Dodgers haven’t solved his contact profile issues (90.3 mph EV, 10.1% Barrels/BBE), but with a 29.3 K-BB%, nobody much cares. While all estimators are more than one-third of a run above his 2.12 ERA, even his FIP only rises to 3.29. The Dodgers have only allowed him to hit 90 pitches once and six innings twice. However, on this board, against the Giants (111 wRC+, but 23.9 K% vs LHP) Heaney still projects as the second best arm on the board and they top FanDuel value, where he’s actually $200 cheaper than on DraftKings (sixth best projected value).

Martin Perez has come back down a bit after early season breakout aspirations. He owns an 18.6 K%, 5.08 ERA and 4.68 SIERA over the last month, but has struck out at least six in three of his last four starts and owns a .301 xwOBA over the last month that’s 23 points below his actual mark and most importantly, he’s facing the Rangers, who own an 83 wRC+ and 25.5 K% against LHP, outside Texas. The Rangers also own a 61 wRC+ and 31.2 K% over the last week, which are each bottom two marks on the board. For the season, Perez still owns a reasonable 4.15 ERA with an xwOBA below .300 and an 85 mph aEV that’s best on the board. While he hasn’t been at his best recently, he still might make some sense at less than $8K on either site in this matchup.