Mat Latos Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While Kevin has noted slight threats of rain in several spots tonight, conditions in New York (vs Washington) appear specifically difficult for hitters with winds blowing in from left at 15 mph and temperatures barely 50 degrees. With Cespedes and Zimmerman out, there's little RH power in the game to begin with, but any that's left takes a step down. Temperatures are rather low in most spots tonight, be especially Colorado, where it's expected to be in the low 40s. Perhaps, with two good pitchers on the mound, this would be a good night to fade Coors (breeze blowing in from right 10 mph). Domed stadiums appear to be the best conditions for offense tonight and probably even better if the roof is open in Arizona. Although a pitcher's park, it should be noted that the warmest spot tonight is in Los Angeles, where the game between the Blue Jays and Angels is said to kick off above 80 degrees. With Mat Latos and Alex Meyer on the mound tonight, it could play more batter friendly than normal. Be sure to look for Kevin's evening update, the final word on all weather related game risk.

Mat Latos has a 4.02 ERA and his underlying numbers suggest it's going to get worse with just a 12.7 K% and a 78.6 LOB%. He's been about average vs RHBs since last season (.309 wOBA), but has allowed LHBs a .339 wOBA. The obvious would be to have a lot of exposure to Bryce Harper (193 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP since 2015) who costs less $5K tonight. The more expensive Daniel Murphy had hit RHP better this year (197 wRC+, .279 ISO) and is a top 2nd Base bat if affordable. The one bat RH bat who has taken a real step forward against RHP this year moves up to 5th tonight and is also a Catcher. Wilson Ramos has a 150 wRC+ and .183 ISO vs RHP in 2016 and a 345 wRC+ and 50.0 Hard% over the last week.

Mat Latos has a 4.06 ERA with an 80.9 LOB% and just an 11.8 K%. In other words, it could be and might get much worse. He has a career high 12.3 HR/FB, although, strangely, batters have just a 26.7 Hard% against him, though his batted ball profile is mostly in line with career rates (1.18 GB/FB). Yoenis Cespedes (144 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been cold (-3 wRC+ last seven days), but does have a 50.0 Hard% over the last week. More affordably, Michael Conforto (155 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP career) could do some damage here against a pitcher with a .342 wOBA against LHBs since last season. Curtis Granderson (141 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has had a rough start, but maintained his power (.225 ISO vs RHP this year) and has seen his bat start to heat up recently (117 wRC+, 38.5 Hard% last seven days). An inability to miss bats against a high power offense, should spell trouble for Latos and some daily fantasy opportunity for Mets bats.

Mat Latos has just a 2.4 K-BB% after walking five without a strikeout in his last start. He has allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts and has allowed a wOBA of .340 to LHBs since last season. There isn't a lot of great value in this lineup at some very high prices up top, but lefty Colby Rasmus (111 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats cleanup for under $4K. Colin Moran is a LHB making his major league debut for Houston, batting 6th for the minimum cost. He had just a 102 wRC+ at AAA this year.

Mat Latos has a 93.8 LOB% that is screaming for regression with just a 12.6 K%. It's going to come crashing down sooner than later and there are several strong options in this Minnesota lineup that could hammer away at that foundation tonight. Unfortunately, Brian Dozier will not be among them. Miguel Sano is one of the top OF plays tonight with a 140 wRC+ and .229 ISO vs RHP. He has a 94 mph aEV and 255 ft avg distance this season. Eduardo Nunez moves into the two spot at a weak SS position and has a strong reverse split (145 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) with a 192 wRC+ over the last week. Byung Ho Park has thumped RHP for a 150 wRC+ and .347 ISO through 80 plate appearances.

Reiterating the point made before Latos’s last outing: The theme with Latos has been waiting for his ERA/xFIP pair of 3.25/3.65 in 2014, 4.95/3.69 in 2015, and 0.49/4.83 in 2016 to come back to reality. So far this season, he has possessed a very large xFIP, but somewhow than he had in 2014 and 2015, but somehow has an ERA of 0.49. It could be largely contributed to his nearly 92% LOB. For anyone who thinks the regression may begin today, start with Chris Davis.

DFS players may think playing May Latos at pitcher today is a good idea, and they could even be right when the clock strikes midnight. Still, the numbers point to a impending blowup with Latos putting up a ERA/xFIP pair of 3.25/3.65 in 2014, 4.95/3.69 in 2015, and 0.49/4.83 in 2016 so far. Spelled out more simply, he has had a higher xFIP so far this season than he had in 2014 and 2015, but somehow has an ERA of 0.49. It could be largely contributed to his nearly 92% LOB. For anyone who think the regression may begin today, start with Rougned Odor and Prince Fielder.

While Latos has only allowed 1 run during his 12 IP this season, his SIERA (4.89) and xFIP (5.38) numbers show that we can expect some serious regression coming his way soon. Normally we like to attack pitchers that own those kind of numbers, but the Angels roster doesn’t provide us with many adequate players to do so with. Of course, Mike Trout (.408 wOBA - .292 ISO – 168 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) should always be considered an option, but is struggling at the plate early on this season making him a GPP target (.307 wOBA – 25K% - .128 ISO). Albert Pujols (.339 wOBA - .230 ISO – 120 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) is also always a threat to leave the yard, but too has been struggling this season (.250 wOBA – 64 wRC+ - 140 ISO).

You would think that a game with a 8.5 run total and two average pitchers taking the mound would have you finding plays left and right for your DFS lineups but that's not the case with the White Sox-Twins game today. We don't know which Mat Latos we will get - the one that struggled at the beginning of last season or the one that looked much better in the second half and pitched six shutout innings in his first start. He's interesting as a GPP flyer because of the Twins struggles against RHP - only Miguel Sano has a wOBA that tops .325. You can target LH bats against the Twins starter Ervin Santana (.337 career wOBA) but Adam Eaton is the only one on the White Sox worth rostering that hits from that side of the plate (Jose Abreu is always in play). In general it's a game to avoid but there are a few spots you can look to (Sano, Eaton, Jose Abreu, maybe Latos).