Matt Adams Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ironically, with similarly expected conditions to Yankee Stadium tonight (temperatures in the mid-60s and negligible wind effects), Weather Edge is showing a run and power decline in such games, which makes quite a bit more sense. Overall, this park has been a positive run environment, though not as much of a power haven as Yankee Stadium.

Dakota Hudson is the low man on the pitching pole today. His 18 K% is more than 10 points below any other pitcher today with a 5.08 SIERA that’s the only mark above four and a .335 xwOBA that’s more than 30 points higher than anyone else. What he does do is keep the ball on the ground for the most part (56.9%) with that mark jumping to 63.9% against RHBs, who had a .285 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against him this year. It makes one wonder if either Asdrubal Cabrera (99 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) or Matt Adams (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) could see the field over Howie Kendrick (136 wRC+, .221 ISO) or Ryan Zimmerman (65 wRC+, .148 ISO) tonight, as LHBs had a .347 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) with a 49.6 GB% against Hudson, but why fix what’s not broken? Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) may be the top overall bat on the slate. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) may be your top value. The Nationals top the board with 4.23 implied runs.

On the brink of elimination, a lineup shuffle for the Cardinals in game three had no effect, and there’s probably not much more they could do in game four either. With a 3-0 series lead, Patrick Corbin likely has the longest leash tonight and costs less than $10K on either site. His 28.5 K%, 3.88 SIERA, 3.09 DRA and .303 xwOBA hardly stand out on a four man board that includes Gerrit Cole or even his own rotation, though he was likely one of the top 10 pitchers in the National League. Corbin did have that awful relief outing against the Dodgers, but still struck out 14 of the 41 he faced in the series. Corbin does have the highest aEV (88.9 mph) and Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board, so it’s the strikeout rate that really gives him value and it does make some middle of the order St Louis bats interesting here. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (92 wRC+), Jose Martinez (160 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+) all exceeded a .260 ISO vs LHP this year, while Yadier Molina (130 wRC+, .147 ISO) had a .382 xwOBA with the platoon advantage, but has the disadvantage of having the speed of a 37 year-old catcher.

Mike Soroka has been regressing with a 4.11 ERA over the last in line with his season SIERA, but he’s also been a bit worse. Strikeouts are down (under 20% for the season now), his ground ball rate has been below 48% in seven of his last nine starts (still 52.4% on the year) and he has a .363 xwOBA over the last 30 days (61 points higher than actual results) with 37.9% 95+ mph EV now. He’s allowed five HRs over his last two starts and faces Washington for a second straight outing. The only thing that’s remained consistent is his excellent control (5.6 BB%). For the season, RHBs have been grounded by Soroka (.234 wOBA, .273 xwOBA, 57.1 GB%), but LHBs have had some success (.321 wOBA, .345 xwOBA, 46.9 GB%). The Nationals have a 4.48 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board, but there seems to be some contrarian upside in attacking Soroka with quality LHBs at this point. This makes Adam Eaton (112 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP) a solid value at the top of the lineup and Juan Soto (162 wRC+, 324 ISO) just a great overall choice. Asdrubal Cabrera (96 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Matt Adams (91 wRC+, .250 ISO) would be additional reasonably priced options with decent lineup spots.

Zimmerman is in the midst of another rough year which has so far seen him pitch to a 5.95 ERA, 5.48 xFIP, 5.29 SIERA, 8.1% K-BB and 8.3% SwStr over 39 1/3 innings. He’s also allowed a .334 xwOBA, 7.7% barrel rate and 89.8 MPH aEV on the year. Zimmerman has been a bit more vulnerable vs. lefties since 2018 (.345 xwOBA allowed to LHB, .312 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB). Juan Soto (.393 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Matt Adams (.354) and Adam Eaton (.336) are the only 3 lefties in the Nats’ lineup and are all great plays this afternoon. Also in play is Anthony Rendon (.441 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Howie Kendrick (.417), Kurt Suzuki (.324), Trea Turner (.311) and Victor Robles (.283). Soto has been their hottest hitter with a .418 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed closely by Matt Adams (.415) and Howie Kendrick (.414). Adam Eaton will bat 2nd at just $3.8k on Draftkings and stand out as probably the best value in the lineup. You’ll have to pay over $5k each to roster Turner, Rendon, Soto and Kendrick. The Nats currently have a healthy 5.97 implied total this afternoon vs. Zimmerman and the Tigers.

Tyler Mahle has a 20.1 K-BB%, but 2.65 K/SwStr. He throws a lot of fastballs up in the zone, also responsible for a 20.4 HR/FB and 28 Hard-Soft% with a 25.8 LD%, 90.4 mph aEV and 43.8% 95+ mph EV. Aside from a 3.45 xFIP, the remainder of his estimators fall within a half run of his 4.15 ERA. Perhaps the most important point to make here is that Mahle has been absolutely dreadful against LHBs over the last calendar year (.400 wOBA, .361 xwOBA, 44.2 Hard%, 32.7 GB%). In one of the most power friendly parks in baseball, Washington bats could be useful here. The Nats have just three of those among the first six in the projected order, but all have been hitting the ball well (140+ wRC+ last seven days). Adam Eaton (110 wRC+, .101 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only one of the three lacking power, but can make up for it by getting on base ahead of the middle of the order. Juan Soto (146 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Matt Adams (84 wRC+, .199 ISO) are more likely where the damage is at. Anthony Rendon (150 wRC+, .239 ISO) has been incredibly productive against RHP, despite Mahle’s .293 wOBA and xwOBA allowed to same-handed batters.