Matt Andriese Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If playing day baseball on this holiday, there are a couple of slates to choose from, splitting the 1pm ET and 4pm ET games or including all of them. Pitching candidates for the three game early slate include Julio Teheran, C.C. Sabathia, Matt Andriese, Jose Urena, Francisco Liriano, and Jose Quintana. While Andriese (21.3 K%, 3.41 SIERA) would seem like an ideal low priced play in Miami (83 wRC+, 8.8 HR/FB at home, 87 wRC+, 16.4 K-BB% vs RHP), but one never knows what the Rays have in mind (Yarbrough was pulled after three innings last night) and unless paying up for one of the later afternoon arms on a full afternoon slate, there aren't any early pitchers who would necessitate such a complement. The Braves have a 116 wRC+ and 19.5 K% vs LHP, which hampers Sabathia. Teheran is a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, but is generally tough on RHBs (.308 wOBA, 27.9 Hard% since last season). Liriano is likely to walk the park and is facing the hottest offense in baseball (176 wRC+ last seven days). Joses Quintana and Urena are your top pitching choices on the early only slate. Quintana has not been good. He's allowed seven runs over his last two starts, has not exceeded four strikeouts in four straight starts and hasn't completed six innings in any of his last three. Yet, his 21.5 K% is best among these six pitchers and he costs less than $8K now against an offense with a 57 wRC+ and 2.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week. The Tigers have actually been tough on LHP though (109 wRC+, 19.4 K%). Jose Urena is your top value and perhaps the top overall pitcher on the early slate. He's allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts with no more than five strikeouts in any of them, but had eight shutout innings two starts back as well. He misses enough bats (19.4 K%) with a SIERA under four (3.85). Mostly though, he's in a nice spot (Rays 14.8 K-BB%, 9.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 26.3 K% last seven days) in a great park and costs $7K on either site.

The Astros are red hot (177 wRC+, 13.1 K%, 19.7 HR/FB last seven days), yet sit near the middle of the board with 4.44 implied runs against the Tampa Bay bullpen today. The most negative run environment on the board explains a small part of that, but we know that Ryne Stanek (101 RHBs faced career with a .411 wOBA) will pitch the first inning or two and Matt Andriese (RHBs .364 wOBA, .360 xwOBA, 40.7 Hard% since last season) may pitch more of this game than any other reliever. These conditions would seem very favorable for Houston RHBs. In fact, none of the first seven batters in the lineup (either side) are below a 118 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year with the cleanup guy being the low man among those group with a 118 wRC+ and .160 ISO. The remaining six batters are all above a 125 wRC+ and .165 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. George Springer (131 wRC+, .210 ISO), Alex Bregman (135 wRC+, .198 ISO), Jose Altuve (160 wRC+, .172 ISO) and Carlos Correa (135 wRC+ ,.250 ISO) are all elite bats tonight.

The Blue Jays are on the upper middle of the board at 4.36 implied runs on a five game slate. Wilmer Font will start for the Rays with Matt Andriese expected to follow. The issue here is in a similar spot yesterday, Austin Pruitt didn't even last three innings in the supposed "innings eater" role for the Rays. Font lasted 2.1 innings in his initial start last week. The Blue Jays do have some interesting looking bats at mostly reasonable prices. Curtis Granderson (126 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 265 wRC+ over the last week. Justin Smoak (117 wRC+, .236 ISO) moves up to the second spot. In fact, among the first eight batters in the lineup, Kevin Pillar (79 wRC+, .138 ISO) is the only one below either a 100 wRC+ or .190 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year.

Seven of 22 teams on an 11 game slate have an implied run line between 5.01 and 5.38 with no other team above 4.71. The Yankees, Brewers and Red Sox are all within one-tenth of a run of each other at the top. Aaron Judge (176 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP) has been destroying baseballs and is the probably the top overall hitter on the board against Matt Andriese, who has allowed RHBs a .386 wOBA and 38.4 Hard% this year. The Brewers are looking like a powerful stack though. LHBs have a .357 wOBA (31.9 Hard%) against Homer Bailey and the Milwaukee bats are fairly affordable. Eric Thames (136 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP), Neil Walker (126 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP) and Travis Shaw (127 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP) all have a 40% or better hard hit rate over the last week and cost $3.4K or less on FanDuel, while Shaw is the only one of the three above $4K on DraftKings. Stephen Vogt (90 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP, 189 wRC+, 41.7 Hard% last seven days) could be a great value catcher, costing much less. RHBs have an even higher wOBA (.412) against Bailey, though Domingo Santana (124 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP) and Ryan Braun (113 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP) cost a bit more. The Red Sox are facing Marco Estrada, who's reverse split this year (.355 wOBA vs RHBs) should play right into the hands of the Red Sox, but without a lot of RH power and Chris Young (108 wRC+ vs RHP) being the only projected right-handed starter above a 100 wRC+ against RHP, it's tougher to find great fits.

Much like Felix Hernandez yesterday, James Paxton returns from the DL for the Mariners tonight off of a long layoff and is only expected to throw 50 pitches tonight. With the minor league season having ended, he was unable to throw a rehab start, which essentially takes a top arm off the board for daily fantasy players tonight. He's unlikely to be the only starter likely to be working under a pitch limit well below 100 tonight either. Matt Andriese has not exceeded 74 pitches in three outings since returning from the DL. Bud Norris has been a single inning reliever all season. His season high is 41 pitches, set in April. Jeremy Jeffress gets his first major league start. He’s hit the 40 pitch mark a few times this season, but never as many as 50. RotoGrinders Research Tools covers relievers on both a team wide and individual basis, information that's likely to be very useful for tonight's slate.

Many of tonight's pitchers are projected fairly similarly with no real standouts. What Matt Andriese has going for him is a fairly low price tag ($7.4K DK/$6.9K FD), which may make him one of the better values tonight. He consistently has had either four of five strikeouts in every start, but with a league average SwStr%. Miami is a slightly below average offense (87 wRC+ vs RHP) in a park that leans slightly pitcher friendly. Andriese has allowed six HRs this season, but has no real platoon split with RHBs hitting him a bit harder than LHBs (36.4% to 32.8%) since 2015. Most of Miami's better bats present as somewhere around average vs RHP, though Christian Yelich (134 wRC+, .204 ISO) has been solidly above average since last season. There are otherwise no real standouts, though Derek Dietrich (119 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP since last season) presents as a top FanDuel value (3.55 Pt/$/K) for the absolute minimum on FanDuel. Inside the dome, this is one of the few games players won't have to worry about either rain or low temperatures tonight.

Matt Andriese is coming off an uninspiring performance in his first start of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays in which he allowed five runs, four earned, in just four innings pitched. He'll take the bump for the Rays in tonight's matchup with the New York Yankees, who will be without Brett Gardner in the lineup for at least one game after his collision with Rickie Weeks Jr. at first base in yesterday's contest. Despite the less than stellar first outing, Andriese showed some promise last season posting a 20.7% strikeout rate with just a 4.7% walk rate without any pronounced splits versus hitters from either side of the plate. The Yankees offense remains relatively unproven with a lot of young players and older veterans on the downside of the careers, so they certainly aren't an offense that we are looking to avoid at all costs. For this reason, Andriese is a viable SP2 in tournaments, though it may be tough for him to become relevant on one pitcher sites with Madison Bumgarner and other high strikeout pitchers on the slate. If this game were taking place in Tampa Bay opposed to Yankees Stadium, the edge would easily go to Andriese, but with the plus hitting environment, especially for lefties, the preferred side of this matchup (barely) looks to be the Yankees left-handed hitters that possess some power upside. Greg Bird and Aaron Hicks are the two Yankees lefties to consider that have some pop in their bats, though they are off to slow starts this season, adding to their already high volatility. Even though he bats from the right side, Aaron Judge may be the best tournament one-off in this lineup, as he has posted a .258 ISO versus right-handed pitchers to this point in his young career.

Reason #1: David Ortiz is locked in at the plate right now, striking out only 18% of the time over the last 7 days and putting the ball in play via hard contact in 50% of at-bats that have ended in contact. Reason #2: Matt Andriese has been the quintessential "league-average" pitcher this year, possessing a 4.07 xFIP against lefties, a 20% strikeout rate, and a 34% hard contact allowed percentage. Andriese has had respectable outings, but he has proven over time that he will not be too tough of a matchup for a hitter like David Ortiz. Reason #3: David Ortiz absolutely owns right-handed pitchers and owns the best wRC+ against RHP in the league amongst qualified hitters, holding an unbelievable 182 wRC+ this year versus righties.

Matt Andriese is not a terrible pitcher, but he has proven to be hittable in recent starts. Andriese has a respectable 20% k rate over the last few weeks but is still surrendering a 39% flyball rate that could prove problematic in a small park like Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has a ridiculous 1.31 home run rating for LHBs on the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool, making every Oriole LHB interesting. While most DFS players may gravitate to Chris Davis, Matt Wieters may be the sharper play. Davis is striking out 38% of the time over the last week, while Wieters is crushing the ball (42% hard contact) and whiffing an elite 9% of the time over that same period.

There's so many viable spots to find offense tonight that the Red Sox hitters may actually go under-owned against Matt Andriese at Fenway Park. That’s not to say it’s the wrong play, but it would seem like the right long-term strategy to stack Boston in a spot similar to this one. Since ownership should be so spread out tonight , we shouldn't really look to load up on Boston bats just in an effort to be contrarian. Andriese has posted some decent results this year, but he allows hard contact 33.8% of the time and will likely regrees toward a higher BABIP than his current .279 mark. Boston still leads the league in wOBA against RHP, and they are obviously in a good spot here at home. The top hitters to target here would be David Ortiz (179 wRC+, .443 wOBA, .362 ISO vs RHP) and Mookie Betts (146 wRC+, .395 wOBA, .231 ISO vs RHP). Brock Holt (.150 ISO vs RHP) is also an essential target if stacking Boston given his affordable price tag and bump to the lead off position.