Matt Cain Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ten teams are projected for 4.9 runs or higher on just an eight game slate tonight with only four teams below 4.5 runs. There is certainly no shortage of pitchers to attack tonight, namely James Shields against whom both right and left-handed batters have a wOBA above .360 since last season. RHBs additionally enjoy a hard hit rate of 39% (10 points higher than LHBs). Batters from either side also have a wOBA above .350 against Matt Cain since last year, who pitches in Oakland tonight. Other pitchers can be attacked hard by batters from one side of the plate or another. LHBs have a .405 wOBA and 36.9 Hard% with just 37.9% ground balls against Doug Fister since last season, which puts most of the Cleveland lineup in high regard tonight. LHBs also have .393 wOBA (32.7 Hard%) against Ubaldo Jimenez, giving a more balanced Kansas City lineup a few very interesting bats. While Charlie Morton has an uncharacteristic reverse split this year, RHBs have a 55.6 GB% to go along with their .347 wOBA against him, though the other side of that matchup gives us Alex Cobb and his .333 wOBA against LHBs with a 35.2 Hard%. Great timing considering that the Astros have recently lose two of their top RH bats to injury. While those splits answer one question in the Cleveland lineup, which is Carlos Santana (134 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2016) over Edwin Encarnacion (129 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2016) at First Base in stacks tonight (Santana also has a 231 wRC+ over the last seven days), Justin Smoak (139 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP this year) gives him some competition for the top bat at the position and perhaps overall tonight. As for the value play bat tonight (pitching is more expensive than expected), that may be Derek Fisher (160 wRC, .222 ISO, 54.6 Hard% vs RHP), hopefully at the top of the Houston lineup.

Alex Gordon has homered three times against Justin Verlander. No other matchup has more BvP homers, but Gordon also has just an 84.7 mph aEV on 10 BBEs and hasn't been a relevant hitter in nearly two years. The numbers on Verlander and the Royals go deep with Eric Hosmer having the most success. He's homered just twice in 83 PAs, but has eight extra-base hits and a 94.4 mph aEV on 13 BBEs recorded since 2015. The issue with Hosmer has always been elevating the ball, but Verlander's extreme fly ball rate helps him out there. Mark Reynolds has 95.9 mph aEV on six BBEs and two HRs (six extra-base hits) in 28 PAs against Matt Cain, but how will that transfer from Colorado to San Francisco. Evan Gattis has a 96.9 mph aEV on seven BBEs and one HR in 12 PAs against Sean Manaea.

There's very little useful Statcast information on tonight's BvP matchups. Not a single player with more than seven BBEs since 2015 (when the Statcast era began) has an aEV above 90.1 mph. We do have HRs though. Despite just an 84.8 mph aEV on 15 recorded BBEs, Anthony Rizzo has homered four times against Jeff Locke with seven total extra-base hits in 30 PAs. With only three Statcast recorded BBEs between them, Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips have a combined seven HRs against Matt Cain. Kemp and Cain faced each other often during the former's Dodger days. Both, along with Phillips are lesser quality players now, but Cain (2.8 SwStr% last five starts) may have fallen the farthest from his All-Star days. On just six BBEs, Edwin Encarnacion has a 100.2 mph aEV against Wade Miley with two HRs and two doubles in 17 PAs, as if there weren't already enough motivation to load up on that matchup.

Five of the 12 offenses on the night slate have an implied run line of 4.9 or higher with only the Mets and Angels below 3.8. RH Yankee bats are an obvious choice against Jesse Chavez (RHBs .341 wOBA, 36.8 Hard% since last year) as are RH Cleveland bats against Wade Miley (.357 wOBA, 33.3 Hard% since last year). Baltimore is projected for more than five runs as well, but Mike Clevinger has been a different pitcher against RHBs this year (.252 wOBA, 30.9 K%) and could foil those plans. Daniel Norris has a 19.2 K-BB% with an 11.0 SwStr% in three June starts, although with just a 26.7 GB% and 48.9 Hard%. RHBs have a .344 wOBA and 39.1 Hard% against him since last year. The most interesting offense to look at might be the Braves. Matt Cain has just a 2.8 SwStr% over the last month making five starts. Both right and left-handed batters have a wOBA above .350 against him since last season. Matts, Adams and Kemp, both have a 140+ wRC+ and .230+ ISO against RHP this year. Tyler Flowers has a 148 wRC+ and .169 ISO against RHP this year too, while NIck Markakis (102 wRC+ vs RHP) could score some runs for just $3.5K on DraftKings.

The top BvP HR totals come against Matt Cain, whom Matt Kemp has homered four times off of and Brandon Phillips has taken deep three times. This information is so far out-dated though that Statcast has only recorded a total of three BBEs against Cain for both batters combined. All three players were once perennial All-Stars, while only Matt Kemp shows occasional glimpses of the player he once was (at least offensively). In a power suppressing park in San Francisco (though worse for LHBs), this information doesn't do players much good tonight. There is some interesting exit velocity information tonight, especially against Ian Kennedy and Matt Boyd. For Cleveland, Jason Kipnis (95.2), Jose Ramirez (93) and Carlos Santana (99.5) all have high aEVs against Ian Kennedy with at least 10 BBEs. Jose Abreu (97), Todd Frazier (94.8), and Avisail Garcia (94.2) all exceed a 94 mph aEV on at least 10 BBEs against Matt Boyd.

Four pitchers tonight have a GB rate below 40% over the last two calendar years. While Matt Cain was never a consideration despite the great park with an ERA and estimators above four, the Dodgers add a 119 wRC+ against RHP and sixth best 116 sOPS+ in the majors. While Dan Straily may initially look attractive with a 24 K% on this slate, after realizing that 14 of his Ks came in one start and he's not had more than five in any other, expectations may be tempered somewhat. Then the real whammy is Houston's 125 wRC+ against RHP and fifth best 121 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers. On the other end of the spectrum, the Padres and Giants are tied for a league low 76 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers. Part of that may be in the parks they call home (San Francisco is especially known to suppress power), but while Brandon McCarthy should be a pitcher of interest tonight, he hasn't thrown a major or minor league pitch in over two weeks and is making his first start back from a shoulder issue. That leaves Chase Anderson in San Diego. Quite the difficult pitcher to evaluate, he has just a 4.8 HR/FB this year after never having been below 11% in any major league season. He additionally has a 19.3 Hard-Soft% this season, but just an 84.6 mph aEV and 3.4% Barrels/BBE, so there's some disagreement between those metrics. He also has a 4.10 ERA over the last month, more closely matching his estimators, while the Padres have a surprising 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP this year. They do strike out a slate high 25.4% of the time against them though. Considering the lack of upside on the slate, Anderson's league average strikeout rate (20.4%) is probably worth at least some exposure here, though more likely on DraftKings for $1.7K less than his FanDuel cost.

The small slate tonight sees just two batters above a 300 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.), led by Nich Ahmed 323 with a 66.7 Hard% and three HRs in 14 PAs. Teammate Brandon Drury joins him in the top five via wRC+ (263 wRC+, 52.9 Hard%, 2 HRs in 21 PAs). Although they play in the highest runs scoring environment on the slate in Arizona, Zack Wheeler has had great success against RHBs this season (.259 wOBA, 20.4 Hard%), despite a narrow 3.9 K-BB%. Perhaps there's something there if you like bloopers and walks? Yasmani Grandal (307 wRC+, 38.1 Hard%, 1 HR) is the next hottest bat on the slate. He's done it with just a 4.2 K% in 24 PAs and has a nice matchup against Matt Cain (LHBs .385 wOBA since last season) despite the extreme negative run environment and power suppression of San Francisco. Buster Posey has a 296 wRC+ with a 45 Hard% and 4 HRs on the opposite side of that game. His matchup with Brandon McCarthy (RHBs .275 wOBA since last season) is not a strong one and may get worse with the bullpen likely to make an early appearance. Despite Mike Pelfrey's ground ball tendencies against RHBs (56.3% since last season), Mike Trout (289 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, 3 HRs in 17 PAs) may still be the top bat on the slate, as well as one of the hottest.

Tonight's top projected hitters reads like the top of the prospect board five years ago with Harper, Machado and Trout the only three batters projected for 12 points or more on FanDuel, though Murphy and Springer join them at nine points on DraftKings. Those looking to be more thrifty (perhaps to pay up for pitching) might opt to pivot from Machado on DK to Moustakas (2.49 Pt/$/K), who has a 134 wRC+ and .302 ISO vs RHP since last year and has a matchup at home against Matt Cain. The top value on FD is projected to be Seth Smith (121 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since last year) facing Bronson Arroyo, who has already allowed four HRs this season. Max Scherzer is easily the top projected pitcher overall tonight, while Luis Severino (4.33 Pt/$/K on FanDuel) might give players the best return on their fantasy dollars.

The ballpark downgrade for the Orioles at AT&T Park is not a positive thing for their upside, however, a matchup with Matt Cain certainly adds to their potential. Cain is a fly ball pitcher (39.4%) that has surrendered a ton of long balls his past two seasons in the majors, including 1.88 HR/9 allowed to right-handed batters and 1.13 HR/9 allowed to left-handed batters this year. He still has decent control (8.1% BB%), and with the home run suppression of AT&T Park, it may be a good idea to avoid Orioles hitters as a full stack and in cash games. The preferred course of action would be to use them as tournament one-offs in hopes someone can take advantage of Cain and his home run problems. Manny Machado (141 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .266 ISO vs RHP), Mark Trumbo (133 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .258 ISO vs RHP), Adam Jones (125 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .222 ISO vs RHP), and Chris Davis (.222 ISO vs RHP) make the most sense here.