Matt Harvey Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Matt Harvey held the Mariners to a single run through 5.2 innings in his return from more than a month and a half on the IL, but walked as many as he struck out (three each) and has some unfavorable numbers on the season, including a 5.9 K-BB%, 20.8 HR/FB, 31.2 Hard-Soft%, 6.88 ERA, 5.53 SIERA, 7.74 DRA, .387 xwOBA and 90.4 mph aEV. There are no silver linings those clouds. It may seem like good news that Harvey has narrowed his platoon split over the last calendar year, but the reason for that is that RHBs are hitting him fairly well too (.345 wOBA, .337 xwOBA). This is bad news against a predominantly right-handed Houston lineup, at least at the top of the order. With a 5.41 implied run line that’s second highest on the board, the Houston offense could make short work of Harvey. Among the first five in the projected order, only Jose Altuve (92 wRC+, .131 ISO) is below a 140 wRC+ or .189 ISO vs RHP. Yordan Alvarez (186 wRC+, .348 ISO, 57.5 Hard%) has had a remarkable start to his major league career, while George Springer (156 wRC+, .267 ISO) and Alex Bregman (153 wRC+, .254 ISO) can deal out same handed pitcher violence like few other RHBs in the league.

It took a while for the Minnesota offense to get going last night and they did the majority of their damage against a weak Angels’ pen, but the Twins did put up eight runs last night and are looking good again tonight against Matt Harvey (17 K%, 28.2 LD%, 6.35 ERA, 6.09 DRA, 5.07 SIERA, 90.4 mph aEV, .373 xwOBA). By any metric, he’s been really bad. Over the last calendar year, LHBs have really feasted against him (.343 wOBA, 45.5 Hard%). The Twins will likely have Max Kepler (107 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jorge Polanco (148 wRC+, .202 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (97 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Eddie Rosario (110 wRC+, .216 ISO) at the top of the lineup in order to take advantage of Harvey’s large platoon split.

This is one instance where players should throw the negative west coast run environment right out the window. It’s Brad Keller (16.9 K%, 5.85 DRA, 5.51 SIERA, 90.6 mph aEV, .370 xwOBA) against Matt Harvey (15.7 K%, 6.42 DRA, 5.09 SIERA, 91 mph aEV, .379 xwOBA). While RHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Keller over the last calendar year, that’s not nearly enough to preclude Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in this strong matchup, and LHBs are up to a .352 xwOBA against him over the same time span. Tommy La Stella (138 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (168 wRC+, .317 ISO) are strong plays in the top half of this projected lineup. Over the same 12 months, Harvey has been ripped by LHBs to the tune of a .343 wOBA and xwOBA with a 46% hard hit rate. Adalberto Mondesi (111 wRC+, .220 ISO), Alex Gordon (109 wRC+, .185 ISO) and rookie Nicky Lopez (243 wRC+, .377 xwOBA last seven days) can be featured from the Kansas City projected lineup. Lopez costs just $3.3 on DraftKings ($2.6K on FanDuel).

Following up on striking out 10 Padres, Matt Harvey shut out the struggling Cubs for six innings in his last outing. He has another tough task in Milwaukee, as the Brewers are the lowest of just three teams above five implied runs tonight (5.07). Harvey still struggles with LHBs (.345 wOBA, 42 Hard%) and that makes this a very dangerous matchup with Curtis Granderson (127 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP this year), Christian Yelich (158 wRC+, .268 ISO) and Travis Shaw (134 wRC+, .289 ISO) all in the top half of this lineup. Each has a hard hit rate above 45% over the last week. In fact, each of the first six batters in the Milwaukee lineup are above a 37 Hard% vs RHP this year.

The Cubs just barely exceed five implied runs (5.01), but are one of just three teams to do so tonight. Matt Harvey struck out a season high 10 batters last time out, but that was the Padres and he's otherwise topped out at seven and even that only once. He still has an ERA with estimators well above four this season and LHBs have a .355 wOBA against him. Anthony Rizzo (138 wRC+, .221 ISO), former teammate Daniel Murphy (125 wRC+, .189 ISO) and Ben Zobrist (129 wRC+, .167 ISO) all seem good bets here. Be warned that Rizzo and Murphy both have a wRC+ below -30 over the last week (yes, that's a negative), perhaps the reason for the lineup flip flop tonight.

The Pirates (4.53) are the lowest of three offenses above 4.5 implied runs on Monday afternoon. The contact prone offense may have some value against Matt Harvey (LHBs .351 wOBA, 42.2 Hard%, 38.9 GB% this season). In fact, each of the first seven batters they send to the plate has at least a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Gregory Polanco (124 wRC+, .262 ISO) is the only one above a .200 ISO, but Adam Frazier (120 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (114 wRC+, .190 ISO) come at reasonable cost, the latter just $2.4K on FanDuel due to recent struggles (5 wRC+ last seven days). Starling Marte (117 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Francisco Cervelli (137 wRC+, .196 ISO) play also against a pitcher with a fairly average .318 wOBA, 35.3 Hard% and 45.1 GB% against RHBs as well.

There's been some debate over the improvement Matt Harvey has made since being traded to the Reds and, in fact, LHBs have "just" a .336 wOBA against him this year. However, xwOBA brings that up to .354 with both 40% hard hit and ground ball rates. That's dangerous against a powerful Milwaukee lineup in a dangerous park. Christian Yelich (140 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP this season) may be inserting himself into the MVP conversation (271 wRC+, 64.7 Hard% last seven days) and is a top overall bat on this board. Travis Shaw (131 wRC+, .285 ISO) and Mike Moustakas (115 wRC+, .239 ISO) are high upside plays for a team at 4.88 implied runs as well.

There are currently four bullpens above a five FIP over the last month, three of them active on tonight's slate. The Orioles (6.35 FIP, 7.1 K-BB%) are still a full run worse than any other bullpen. They are once again at home, backing Alex Cobb against the Blue Jays. Cobb has gone at least seven in three of his last four starts though. The Nationals (5.33 FIP, 14.6 K-BB%) will back the erratic Gio Gonzalez with a chance they could see a heavy workload. The Reds (5.11 FIP, 9.8 K-BB%) have recently snuck above the five FIP mark as well. Matt Harvey takes on a dangerous Milwaukee offense in a dangerous park. Another spot to watch in is in Cleveland. Twins' starter Kohl Stewart has not completed five innings in any of his three starts. The bullpen has a 4.52 FIP and 13.7 K-BB% over the last month.

The run line for the Cardinals has been increasing this afternoon and is up to 4.94. St Louis is generally a negative run environment that suppresses power, but that may change a bit in the summer heat. Matt Harvey has shown that he may not be a terrible pitcher over the last month or so, but players should stop short of believing in a resurgence as he has not allowed a HR over the last month despite a 35.2 Hard% and league average ground ball rate. LHBs have a .392 wOBA (.399 xwOBA) with a 39.2 Hard% and 35.4 GB% against him since last year. Matt Carpenter (141 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top corner infield bat tonight, who costs just $3.3K on FanDuel. Paul DeJong (120 wRC+, .200 ISO) jumps into the second spot and has the second highest ISO in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year. Jedd Gyorko (65 wRC+, .126 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup below a 117 wRC+ against RHP over that same span though.