Matt Holliday Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

In a significantly negative run environment, Andrew Suarez can get away with a .352 wOBA against RHBs…maybe. At Coors, it’s just playing with fire. The Rockies have a 5.82 implied run tonight that leads the board by more than one half run and that still might be a bit too conservative when Suarez has to face Nolan Arenado (214 wRC+, .401 ISO vs LHP this season) and Trevor Story (161 wRC+, .333 ISO). Matt Holliday costs less than $4K in the middle of this lineup and has a 258 wRC+ over the last week.

Gomber is a talented left-handed pitcher, and he has certainly backed up his prospect pedigree of late, allowing just two earned runs in 16 innings pitched over his last three outings. However, pitching at Coors Field is an entirely different animal, and the young southpaw may have some trouble adjusting to the conditions given his lackluster 19.8% strikeout rate and an uninspiring 35.9% groundball rate on the year. Not only that, but Gomber has also struggled with his control in the early going (12.6% BB%) and has also shown very little ability to control batted ball outcomes, as he's surrendered an above average 38.7% hard hit percentage through 22 career appearances. With such a lack of command, it would not be surprising for Gomber to be on a short leash on Sunday afternoon, which means that the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen could be in for a heavy workload if Gomber is ineffective out of the gate. Even though Nolan Arenado (50.4% HH%, 0.426 ISO, 0.534 wOBA vs LHP), Trevor Story (48.1% HH%, 0.308 ISO, 0.448 xwOBA vs LHP), and the other Colorado Rockies right-handed hitters are the clear preferred options at home versus a left-handed pitcher, it would be ill-advised to eliminate Carlos Gonzalez and David Dahl from consideration entirely since they could have the opportunity to record several at-bats against the Cardinals bullpen. Other than Arenado and Story, the other Rockies righties to target are DJ LeMahieu (40.4% HH%, 0.375 wOBA vs LHP), Ian Desmond (42.0% HH%, 0.259 ISO, 0.377 wOBA vs LHP), and even the recently recalled Matt Holliday, if looking for ways to round out a full stack in large-field tournament formats.

It's a pitching deficient eight game slate on Thursday night with 10 of 16 teams currently implied between 4.8 and 5.8 runs with nobody below 3.66 at this moment. The Chicago Cubs have thrashed the Mets each of the last two nights and are the top projected offense on the board, a bit more than a quarter of a run ahead of the Yankees. Seth Lugo is certainly not the worst pitcher on the board, but his strikeout increase over the last month (24.6%) is not supported by an 8.3 SwStr% that is roughly equivalent to his season rate (8.5%). He generally struggles to go deep into games and the Met bullpen has been a mess. Lugo has almost no split with a wOBA between .325 and .327 to batters from either side with a 35% hard hit rate, though he gains five points on his ground ball rate against RHBs (45%). Among projected starters, only Jason Heyward and Javier Baez are below average hitters against RHP. The top six, as well as Alex Avila (138 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP), are all reasonably strong plays. Kris Bryant (139 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP) and Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP) are the obvious top plays. The Yankees face Wade Miley, which may sound a bit better than it actually is. While RHBs do have a .366 wOBA against him this year, they have just a league average 31.4 Hard% and a 49.7 GB%. Over his last six starts though, he has a 21.2 K% and 54.2 GB% with a 4.1 Hard-Soft%. While his ERA is just 3.18 over this span, his estimators are a run higher due to a 12.3 BB%, while he’s failed to reach six innings in half of those starts. RHBs (125 BF) have a .331 wOBA, three HRs, an 8 K-BB%, 52.9 GB% and 21.2 Hard% over this span. The Yankees have a 17.7 HR/FB at home, but just a 96 wRC+ against LHP with a hard hit rate of 29.4% vs LHP and at home. That said, there are a few Yankees who have mashed LHP this year: Aaron Judge (144 wRC+, .273 ISO, 46.9 Hard%), Gary Sanchez (127 wRC+, .264 ISO, 37.5 Hard%), Matt Holliday (139 wRC+, .231 ISO, 41.5 Hard%) and Todd Frazier (115 wRC+, .295 ISO, 35.9 Hard%). Of that group, only Holliday (37.7%) has a fly ball rate below 42%.

Anibal Sanchez has allowed a .378 wOBA and 37.7 Hard% to RHBs since last year with just a 38 GB%. This is a good reason why Aaron Judge (162 wRC+, .311 ISO career vs RHP) is one of only two non-Coors batters among the top five overall projected batters by the RotoGrinders Player Projections on either site tonight. To make matters even worse for the Tigers, Judge has a 165 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) with 17 HRs against fly ball pitchers this year in 198 PAs. Gary Sanchez (163 sOPS+) is one of three additional Yankees with exactly 11 HRs against fly ballers. The others are Brett Gardner (140 sOPS+) and Matt Holliday (139 sOPS+). Sanchez adds a career 148 wRC+ and .268 ISO vs RHP in his career, while Clint Frazier should also be included in any Yankee stacks for a lineup with a 5.65 implied run line. He has a 115 wRC+, .266 ISO and 51.1 Hard% against RHP in 64 PAs.

Players looking beyond the likely chalk pitchers tonight and perhaps considering the other side of the matchup at Yankee Stadium can't take too much comfort in Michael Fulmer's 13.1 K% over the last month, but his SwStr rate has been above 11% in each of his last two starts while he's gone at least in four of his last six starts. Additionally, half of his contact has been on the ground this season with a board low 28% 95+ mph EV. The batted ball profile is significant in this matchup because the Yankees appear not to like ground ball pitchers. According to Baseball-Reference, their 76 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers is second worst in the majors. In fact, only Clint Frazier (249 sOPS+) in a small sample size and Aaron Judge (163 sOPS+) are above a 100 sOPS+ or .770 OPS overall against ground ballers with Judge and Matt Holliday tied for the team lead with just three HRs against ground ballers.

Luis Castillo not only has the highest strikeout rate on the slate (29.5%), but also the highest ground ball rate (55.7%). While many players may rightfully fear a HR prone arm (seven in six starts) in Yankee Stadium (Yankees 120 wRC+ & 19.8 HR/FB at home, 116 wRC+ vs RHP), they are also the worst offense in the league against GB pitchers according to Baseball-Reference (76 sOPS+). Of players with at least 10 PAs, only Aaron Judge (168 sOPS+), because who else, and Matt Holliday (116 sOPS+) are above league average against worm burners and even they only have three HRs a piece. As a team, the Yankees have just 12 HRs (tied for second least) against pitchers BR classifies as ground ball pitchers.

Felix Hernandez is facing the second best offense against RHP (117 wRC+, 9.7 BB%, 16.8 HR/FB) and has allowed a slate high 10.4% Barrels/BBE. However, he has a 24.0 K% (10.3 SwStr%) with a -2.1 Hard-Soft% in three July starts. A 9.3 BB% and 4.90 FIP still reveal some remaining flaws, but players can also have to consider that a weary Yankees offense still hasn’t recovered from their marathon weekend in Boston, struggling in Minnesota (nine runs in three games) and now have to travel even further west to a difficult park in Seattle. They have just a team 67 wRC+, 18.3 K-BB% and 6.3 HR/FB since the All-Star break. While not expecting to see peak Felix Hernandez tonight, early projected ownership numbers are very bearish on an affordably priced arm in a potentially better than obvious spot. While not endorsing a total fade of Aaron Judge (182 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP this year), he does have a -10 wRC+ (23.5 Hard%) since the break. Matt Holliday and Todd Frazier have a negative wRC+, though hard hit rates above 35%. Though Hernandez has kept his hard hit rate below 30% against batters from either side since last season, both sides have a wRC+ above .320 against him with only 13 points of separation in his platoon split. Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Holliday, Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro all have a wRC+ between 120 and 140 with an ISO above .190 vs RHP this year. Some exposure to Yankee bats with a 4.27 implied run line can be supported and may even be a smart hedge if considering Hernandez, though consider the significant park downgrade they experience tonight.

Elite OF bats top the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight with Charlie Blackmon, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper topping the board and Nolan Arenado giving Colorado two of the top five overall. The BAT gives Freddie Freeman a boost, including him in the top three. With a 170 wRC+ and .325 ISO vs RHP in a new park that rewards power, facing a struggling pitcher in John Lackey, that looks like a strong call. The Cruz Model finds Freeman and Blackmon behind Josh Donaldson, Cody Bellinger and Logan Morrison. All three projection systems are available on the site with the BAT requiring a subscription. FanDuel projections (RotoGrinders Player Projections) like Marcus Semien (3.91 Pt/$/K), Matt Holliday (3.89 Pt/$/K) and Chris Davis (3.86 Pt/$/K) as top values, while on DraftKings, another Oakland bat vies for top value honors. Matt Chapman (2.94 Pt/$/K) leads Chris Davis (2.82) by a small margin.