Matt Koch Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Matt Koch did strike out seven of 16 Cubs in relief last time out, but has just a 14.1 K%, .409 xwOBA and 12.4% Barrels/BBE this season. At 5.16 implied runs, the Dodgers are second highest outside Coors tonight. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against Koch tonight. While he has a .275 wOBA against LHBs, that comes with a 44 Hard% and an xwOBA exactly 100 points higher. Every single batter in the Dodger lineup is above a 115 wRC with at least a .200 ISO against RHP this season. EVERY SINGLE ONE! Use them all? Even eighth place hitter Kike Hernandez (117 wRC+, .243 ISO) is pummeling RHP and has a 206 wRC+ over the last week.

The Angels have the highest implied run line of all the west coast teams tonight at 4.92 against human pinball machine Matt Koch. He has a board high .424 xwOBA and 14.2% Barrels/BBE with RHBs owning a .407 wOBA, .447 xwOBA and 46.4 Hard% against him. Virtually anyone in this lineup is playable. Ian Kinsler (91 wRC+ .190 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Mike Trout (189 wRC+, .327 ISO) and Justin Upton (123 wRC+, .226 ISO) are top bats tonight. Even Albert Pujols (89 wRC+, .171 ISO) has value below $4K.

Matt Koch throws four pitches at least 15% of the time. Only the changeup, thrown least often (15.3%), has an xwOBA below .429. While LHBs actually have just a .265 wOBA against him, xwOBA brings that up to exactly .400, which is still below both his wOBA and xwOBA against RHBs. He has a 90.6 mph aEV and 14.4% Barrels/BBE with just a 13.4 K%. Somehow, he's pitched into the sixth inning or better with two runs or less in five of his 10 starts and the Mets do have just a 31 wRC+ and 32.9 K% over the last seven days, but if they can't hit Koch tonight, they may as well pack it in. The lineup for this game has not yet been confirmed, but it would be surprising if Brandon Nimmo (162 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Todd Frazier (109 wRC+, .168 ISO) weren't in the middle of it. They are the only two batters on the team with more than 10 PAs over the last week above a 55 wRC+.

It's not that there aren't good pitchers on a small four game slate tonight. There are. It's not that there aren't any good spots. There are a couple of those too. It's matching up the good pitchers with the good spots that's tricky. The best pitcher on the board is probably Blake Snell. He's the only pitcher above $9K on either site and has a board leading 27.4 K%, 3.48 SIERA, and .291 xwOBA. He's failed to go at least 5.2 innings just twice in 14 starts and has allowed more than two runs just twice. He's also in what is by far the worst spot on the board at Yankee Stadium (119 wRC+, 12 BB%, 17.1 HR/FB at home, 118 wRC+, 10.9 BB%, 17.6 HR/FB vs LHP - all of these numbers are board best splits). David Price (27.2 K%, 3.64 SIERA, and .303 xwOBA last 30 days) and Tyson Ross (24.9 K%, 3.81 SIERA, 3.29 xwOBA this season) are the next best and next most expensive pitchers on the board. They face the Mariners (115 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP, 142 wRC+, 22.5 HR/FB last seven days) and the Braves (99 wRC+, 20.6 K% vs RHP). Ross has also faltered a bit over his last three starts (15.2 IP - 9 R - 2 HR - 5 BB - 14 K - 47 BF), facing the Marlins twice and the Reds. The best spots on the board go to Anibal Sanchez (8.7 SwStr%, 4.20 SIERA), who actually has a reasonable .316 xwOBA and the lowest aEV (83 mph) on the board, against the Padres (71 wRC+, 21.4 K-BB% on the road, 83 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP) and Matt Koch (13.4 K%, 4.84 SIERA, .430 xwOBA, 90.6 mph aEV, 14.4% Barrels/BBE) against the Mets (31 wRC+, 32.9 K% last seven days). Sanchez may be a top value tonight. He's pitched into the seventh with two runs or less in three of his last four starts (against the Cubs and the Dodgers too). Koch would seem untouchable. The Mets would have to bat from the wrong side of the plate (which might be an improvement) to have much confidence in his profile.

The Cincinnati Reds have a 4.5 implied run line that's third best on a 10 team slate, which confirms that Vegas believes what most daily fantasy players do about Matt Koch's 3.77 ERA. It's a complete fluke, considering the type of contact generated against him (91.3 mph aEV, 15.6% Barrels/BBE, .418 xwOBA). All this despite Arizona possibly playing as a slight pitcher's park since the implementation of the humidor this season. Same-handed batters have a .399 wOBA, .449 xwOBA against him. While LHBs have just a .299 wOBA, Statcast is not buying it (.400 xwOBA). Batters from either side of the plate have a hard hit rate above 40% against him via Fangraphs. Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .436 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Scooter Gennett (147 wRC+, .265 ISO) project as the strongest bats in the lineup, but any of the first six are great overall and/or high value plays.

The Milwaukee Brewers are the fourth team to reach a total of five implied runs as they currently sit at exactly that number tonight against Matt Koch, who allowed eight runs in his last start and still has a SIERA and xFIP nearly a run above his 4.06 ERA. His 6.14 FIP is even higher. His 15.7% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board. Batters from either side have an xwOBA above .400 with a hard hit rate above 40% since last season. Christian Yelich (134 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Lorenzo Cain (108 wRC+, .131 ISO), Travis Shaw (138 wRC+, .272 ISO) and Domingo Santana (127 wRC+, .219 ISO) are all extremely strong plays. Ji-Man Choi is a top of the order bat with some value at a much lower price and outfield eligibility on DraftKings.

The Dodger lineup is looking a little thin these days with injuries piling up, but tonight they face a pitcher they should be able to touch up in Arizona. Matt Koch has a 1.93 ERA through 14 innings this year, but a .340 xwOBA that's 188 points higher than his actual mark. In 32 career innings, the 27 year-old has just a 16.9 K%. He allowed 11 HRs in 45 innings at AAA last season. With Joc Pederson (118 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP since 2017) in the second spot tonight, the top half of the Dodger order, including Chris Taylor (122 wRC+, .212 ISO), Yasmani Grandal (115 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .298 ISO) should pay dividends tonight. Only Bellinger is above $4K on either site. Even Matt Kemp has hit RHP well since last season (109 wRC+, .212 ISO).

Ben Lively has been missing bats around a league average rate this season (21.7 K%, 8.5 SwStr%), though the only part of his strong contact management game from last year that remains is a 4.5% Barrels/BBE. His 34.3 LD% is probably not sustainable, but has led to a .385 BABIP and .363 xwOBA so far, while he completed six innings for the first time last time out. A low price tag ($4.9K) against an offense with an 86 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs RHP and a middling 4.03 implied run line makes him slightly interesting in a secondary role on DraftKings with a useful strikeout rate now. The pitch he's throwing more is a changeup. The one he's throwing less is a sinker that wasn't getting ground balls anyway. Lively has a large platoon split. RHBs have been around league average against him, LHBs have a .383 wOBA (.381 xwOBA) against this fly ball pitcher. Alex Avila (129 wRC+, .418 xwOBA, .205 ISO, 54.6 Hard% vs RHP) has been the best left-handed hitter in the lineup and is cheap at a difficult position, but does not have an enviable lineup spot. The most competent right-handed portion of this lineup comes at a high cost. Jarrod Dyson (93 wRC+) costs less than $3K in the two hole, where players are only really hoping he accidentally reaches base and steals. The Phillies have the third highest run line on the slate (4.43) against Matt Koch, who acquitted himself well in his first major league start (6 IP - 2 H - 1 ER - 1 HR - 2 BB - 4 K vs the Padres) since he received two in 2016. The 27 year-old has run strikeout rates around 15% in the high minors the last few years without more than 75 innings at a top since 2015. The last scouting report he was a part of on Fangraphs (late 2016) called him a middle reliever with sixth starter upside. The first five batters in the Philadelphia order all have been above average against RHP since last season via wRC+. Rhys Hoskins (167 wRC+, .314 ISO) is the stud, Aaron Altherr (112 wRC+, .227) is cheap and on fire (179 wRC+, .57.1 Hard% last seven days) and Carlos Santana (116 wRC+, .207 ISO) costs less than $4K on either site as well.

Matt Koch will be making his first career major league start after a small handful of innings out of the bullpen. In the minors, Koch was a low strikeout, low walk pitcher with a low home run rate. We shouldn’t expect much out of him being limited to just 75 pitches tonight, and even if he were to pitch 4-5 decent innings with his strong control, we would still want Nationals bats against this Diamonbacks bullpen. With Daniel Muphy, Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos all out the Nationals lineup tonight, our options in the Washington lineup are suddenly extremely limited. Anthony Rendon (.180 ISO), Stephen Drew (141 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .280 ISO vs RHP), and Brian Goodwin are all cash game viable given their price points and lineup position, with the rest of the lineup left as a tournament stack. Trea Turner (156 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .264 ISO vs RHP) would be the top option to round out tournament stacks with the aforementioned value plays.