Melvin Upton Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ryan Merritt is one of two rookie starters today, but at least Urias has some major league experience and a strong pedigree. Merritt has one major league start and has struck out just six of 37 major league batters. In over 300 innings of AA and AAA experience since the start of 2015, he's had a strikeout rate below 16% at every single stop and stint. Nearly immaculate control is the reason he's even made it to the majors. The Blue Jays had a 108 wRC+ and .185 ISO at home this season, but were just league average (100 wRC+, .168 ISO) vs LHP to the surprise of most people this year. Aside from having the advantage of being an unknown quantity, the Jays should have a major edge here against the soft-tossing rookie. Encarnacion (142 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP) and Donaldson (150 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP) have to be considered two of the top bats on the board today, while Melvin Upton (132 wRC+, .258 ISO vs LHP) and Jose Bautista (103 wRC+, .209 ISO) are the only other batter in the lineup that can boast either an ISO above .165 (Troy Tulowitzki) or wRC+ above 109 (Darwin Barney) vs LHP.

Tyler Skaggs is probably better than a 5.19 ERA this season. His .372 BABIP comes with a 28.8 LD%, but he's successfully limited hard contact according to a 25.9 Hard% and 22.2 Soft%, but his 22.9 K% is not supported by a 7.0 SwStr% and he's in a difficult spot against a heavily RH lineup with power in Toronto. The Blue Jays have a 110 wRC+ at home, 106 wRC+ vs LHP and 124 wRC+ over the last week. For his career, RHBs have a .322 wOBA against Skaggs, just a bit higher than LHBs (.309), but also 22 of his 25 HRs surrendered and a 31.3 Hard%. The Blue Jays are projected for 4.8 runs and Darwin Barney (101 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) becomes very interesting in the leadoff for the minimum price on DK ($2.4K on FanDuel). There are also four other bats with a 140 or better wRC+ vs LHP this season in Donaldson, Encarnacion, Upton and Saunders. Donaldson (.236 ISO) is the only one of the four with an ISO below .300 vs LHP this season. That's right, Michael Saunders has a 160 wRC+ and .323 ISO vs LHP this season. He's dropped to eighth tonight, but tournament players should note that he costs just above $3K on either site.

Mike Fiers has a pronounced reverse platoon split. RHBs have a .337 wOBA and 36.1 Hard% against him with 24 of his 41 HRs since last season, due to his Changeup being his most productive pitch. Toronto has smartly lined up eight RHBs against him, many of whom thump same handed pitching, including each of the top four, who have at least a 130 wRC+ against RHP since last season. Yes, that includes leadoff man Devon Travis, who costs just $2.8K on FanDuel, although he doesn't have the power of the other three. He does have a .211 ISO vs RHP this year. In fact, Martin, Upton, and Pillar are the only three bats tonight with an ISO below .211 vs RHP this year. Jose Bautista (142 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $4.2K on DraftKings and is pretty close to a must play in such a strong spot. Edwin Encarnacion (146 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs $4.5K on either site, while Donaldson (153 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is most expensive.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is making his first start since 2014 tonight in a matchup against the Padres. Considering the price tag to roster Ryu, he is firmly out of of consideration as a starting pitcher option. The Padres are surprisingly one of the best offenses in baseball versus LHP and have been clicking on all cylinders recently (135 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .244 ISO last 7 days). With that said, Ryu and the Dodgers are getting some serious respect from Vegas as the Padres are only implied to score 3.2 runs. There's so many spots to target offense tonight that it's going to be tough to load up Padres bats. If deciding to go that route, Matt Kemp (166 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .354 ISO vs LHP) , Wil Myers (152 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP) and Melvin Upton Jr. (120 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .244 ISO vs LHP) are the top options to consider.

The Padres face Brandon Finnegan tonight, a pitcher who has struggled against both LHBs and RHBs. Finnegan's xFIP is 4.80 against RHBs, but even worse against LHBs at 5.74. Yangervis Solarte (wRC+ vs. LHP of 196), Matt Kemp (wRC+ vs. LHP of 191), Wil Myers (wRC+ vs. LHP of 156), and Melvin Upton Jr. (wRC+ vs. LHP of 123) are all in play.

Cody Reed is the third of three arms in the Johnny Cueto trade (Finnegan, Lamb), all of whom have now made their way to the Cincinnati rotation. He struck out nine of 28 Astros in his debut and is said to have made major improvements this season, especially against RHBs, but still struggles with control and command occasionally. He does appear to have some upside (Padres 23.8 K% vs LHP), though may be a very risky start for $6.5K or more against one of the best offenses in the league vs LHP (116 wRC+, 17.2 HR/FB) in a power friendly park. It starts with Matt Kemp, who has destroyed LHP this season (196 wRC+, .400 ISO). Wil Myers has been strong as well (142 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP), but may be a bit over-priced. Upton (125 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP) and Solarte (189 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP) might be stronger value plays for $3.6K or less on either site. Adam Rosales (113 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP) can serve as a total punt in the Outfield (if paying up for Scherzer for example) batting 8th for less than $3K.

John Lamb (5.29 SIERA, 14.3% K%, 10.0%), simply put, is not a good pitcher. The Padres typically aren't a team we go out of our way to target but they currently have a 4.8 implied run total. The Padres are actually a sneaky, above average offense against LHP (117 wRC+, .341 wOBA, .176 ISO) and are heading to Cincinnati to play in the Great American "Smallpark" which is extremely conducive to RH power. If there's one thing the Padres have, it's a plethora of right handed batters. The primary target for the Padres is Yangervis Solarte (199 wRC+, .460 wOBA, .310 ISO vs LHP) batting clean-up and reasonably priced on all sites. Other more expensive Padres to target are Matt Kemp (190 wRC+, .447 wOBA, .373 ISO vs LHP), Wil Myers (146 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .234 ISO vs LHP), and Melvin Upton Jr. (123 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .239 ISO vs LHP). We can perhaps even look to Adam Rosales (113 wRC+, .333 wOBA, .200 ISO vs LHP) as a low cost, low owned tournament punt.

Jeff Samardzija seems rejuvenated in his new uniform. He's pitched at least 7.2 innings in five of his eight starts with a 10.1 SwStr% and 21.0 K%. That's a solid pitcher. And he faces the worst offense in baseball against RHP (70 wRC+). In addition, the Padres have a 59 wRC+ over the last week. Samardzija is a strong play for $9.9K on FanDuel. The issue is his $11.8K cost on DraftKings where you're now looking for more than 25 points from him. That's more questionable from a pitcher without an elite K%, though the Padres are at 25.1% vs RHP. Brett Wallace (141 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since last season) bats cleanup again and Samardzija has allowed LHBs a .345 wOBA since last season. His cost is below $3K on both sites. There's little interest in any other San Diego bat, though Melvin Upton Jr. moves up to 2nd and has a 219 wRC+ over the last week (44.4 Hard%).

On the surface, this is a cake walk and easy money on the mound. The Padres stack the order with RHBs that don't really hit LHP all that well aside from Kemp (137 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) and Myers (132 wRC+ vs LHP). A couple of other bats Norris (115 wRC+) and Upton (116 wRC+) are average or slightly better, but then it quickly becomes a mess. The Padres have the lowest projected run total on the board (3.2 runs). A healthy Francisco Liriano is a ground ball and strikeout machine, who might walk a few too many batters, but he missed his last start with a hamstring issue and has walked 18.4% of the batters he's faced in two starts prior. With batters from either side held below a .300 wOBA over the last year plus, there's really no interest in the San Diego lineup and the question becomes completely about Liriano's health. Unfortunately, we won't entirely know until he's on the mound. Consider him a moderately high risk, high reward starting pitcher tonight.