Michael Kopech Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While the top two pitchers on the board separate themselves enough from the rest of the board to remain top five values on either site, they aren’t the only interesting arms on the board. Plenty of pitchers in the $8-9K range on FanDuel project as strong values as well, if players wish to fill their lineups out with more expensive bats. Michael Kopech has just a 3.8 K-BB% over his last eight starts and has completed six innings just twice in his last 10. He has just a 9.1 K-BB% on the season with a 3.38 mostly the product of a .230 BABIP and 79.2 LOB%. On a positive note, he’s throwing his four-seamer 61.5% of the time (-0.6 RV/100, 25.4 Whiff%) and facing the worst fastball hitting offense in the majors (-0.69 wFC/C). As you may have guessed, the matchup (Tigers board low 67 wRC+, 24.9 K%, 7.1 HR/FB vs RHP) is the reason he projects as a top two value on either site tonight. He costs $8.2K on FanDuel and more than $1K less on DraftKings. While he’s in the “hard to trust” category there may be even less faith that the Detroit offense can do anything at all against right-handed pitching.

More on his own merits, but also in a great matchup, Luis Garcia is now pitching deeper into games, facing 79 batters over his last three starts. He’s struck out only 17 of them, allowing 11 runs over those 18.2 inning though. This is mostly due to a 63.1 LOB%, but also the reduced strikeout rate. He still has a 25.5 K% on the season with only 34.4% of his contact reaching a 95 mph EV. While 18 of his 24 barrels (7.8%) have left the yard, his 3.93 ERA is a bit above non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.37 xERA to a 3.72 xFIP. The A’s have a 79 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs RHP. Garcia projects in an essential tie with the next pitcher as third best on the board and as a top five value on FanDuel, where he is more than $1K cheaper than DraftKings.

Not as many strikeouts this year for Mike Clevinger (22.9%), but with just a 6.3 BB% and 6.9% Barrels/BBE, he’s still doing quality work and has his the six inning mark in five of his last seven starts. His 3.60 ERA is below, but within half a run of estimators ranging from a 3.71 DRA to a 4.01 xFIP. The current iteration of the Washington lineup still doesn’t strike out a ton, but are probably worse than their season numbers (92 wRC+, 19.7 K% vs RHP) since the trade deadline. For $1.3K less on DraftKings, Clevinger is the second best projected value and a great SP2 choice, but can also stand on his own as the seventh best projected FanDuel value.

Finally out of Cincinnati and that band box ballpark, Tyler Mahle allowed three home runs on five barrels to the Blue Jays in his Twins debut. Counting those, 12 of his 15 home runs were surrendered at home with 15 of his 24 barrels (league average 8.0%) leaving the yard, there’s reason to believe things could improve for him in Minnesota. Behind a 25.8 K% (17.1 K-BB%), estimators ranging from a 3.39 xERA to a 3.96 xFIP are all well below a 4.49 ERA. Mahle’s best pitch is a four-seamer he utilized 51.7% of the time (-0.8 RV/100, 28.7 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .300). Why mention this? The Angels are the second worst offense in the majors against fastballs (-0.59 wFB/C). They also have the highest strikeout split on the board vs RHP (26.9% with a 96 wRC+). They’ve been one of the coldest offenses in baseball as well (67 wRC+, 21.2 K-BB% last seven days). Mahle projects as the seventh best value on either site.

While Austin Voth projects as the top point per dollar value on FanDuel for $5.9K, he probably better serves in the SP2 spot on DraftKings for just $200 more, projecting just outside the top five values. He has an impressive 16.4 K-BB% since moving into the rotation with three of seven barrels (7.2%) leaving the park. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his eight starts, but also hasn’t gone beyond five innings yet. His 2.97 ERA over this span is more than half a run below estimators that are still mostly below four. In a pitcher friendly park, a matchup with the Rays (100 wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP) offers upside.

For just $6.8K on DraftKings ($1.7K more on FanDuel), Jordan Montgomery projects as the fourth best DK value. He left his St Louis debut (against the Yankees) after 83 pitches with a leg issue before allowing a single run, but striking out only one of the 17 batters he’s faced. While he’s been proclaimed fit to start this game, he’s been below 83 pitches in each of his last three starts and hasn’t hit 90 since before the break. Despite a 13.7 SwStr% and elite control (4.9 BB%), he continues to run a below average strikeout rate (20.2%), which push his estimators as high as 4.33 DRA. Also, despite just 6.5% Barrels/BBE and 34.7% 95+ mph EV, a 4.05 xERA is his second highest estimator. The Brewers struggle with curveballs (-0.26 wCB/C), a pitch Montgomery has utilized with some efficiency this season (21.6%, -0.5 RV/100, 42.8 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .235). They are also a below average offense against LHP (88 wRC+, 24.8 K%). Perhaps St Louis and this matchup could bring out the best in Montgomery. Regardless, for less than $7K, he’s too cheap.

Paying down for pitching, or at least not paying more than $10K, is likely where the minds of most players are at tonight and as far as upside goes, that discussion probably starts with Nick Pivetta (28.2 K%, 3.36 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) and his unfathomable .337 BABIP in Miami tonight. There's nothing in his batted ball profile that supports the elevated BABIP and he gets a large park upgrade in a strong spot (Marlins 83 wRC+ at home, 86 wRC+ vs RHP). Pivetta costs exactly $8.2K on either site. He's allowed one run or less in three of his last five starts, but 11 total in the other two. Jordan Zimmermann (20.8 K%, 4.00 SIERA, .327 xwOBA) is having a league average season and while the White Sox' offense has improved, it's still a high upside spot (18.8 K-BB% vs RHP, 30.1 K% last seven days) at a low price. Hyun-Jin Ryu (28.6 K%, 3.14 SIERA, .270 xwOBA) is at home against the Mets (81 wRC+, 24.8 K%, 9.2 HR/FB), who have been improving against southpaws (see Rich Hill last night). He has not exceeded 89 pitches in any of his four starts back from the DL and costs $9.2K on DraftKings, but efficiency got him through seven innings last time out and the pitch count could normally get him through six. Mike Leake has become a much more effective contact manager in the second half of the season...well, he was until his last two starts in Oakland and Arizona (11 runs). He costs just $6.2K on DraftKings at home against the Orioles (76 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB% on the road). Miles Mikolas is a workhorse (highest average innings per start on the board) and a great contact manager (.304 xwOBA) in Washington. Michael Kopech struck out just one of 12 Boston batters before the rains came in his last start and just nine of 48 major league batters so far, but allowed just one run in six innings against Detroit two starts back and gets them again tonight. He had a 31.3 K% at AAA this season. Tyler Glasnow has a 33 K% in six starts for the Rays and has pitched into the seventh in two of his last three. He has a massive price discrepancy against the Blue Jays tonight and costs just $6.7K on FanDuel.

Michael Kopech may be the most interesting arm on a somewhat lackluster board tonight. The #15 prospect in baseball according to the latest Fangraphs update in June, makes his major league debut against the Twins. He has an electric fastball and a slider that may already be above average, which have led to a 31.3 K% in 24 AAA starts this season. He's just $6K on FanDuel, but carries an aveage price tag of $7.6K on DraftKings. Vegas isn't buying the early hype and has the Twins for 4.58 implied runs tonight, on the top half of the board. Kopech has upside that's not available in a lot of other spots on the board and at a fraction of cost where it is. Current ownership projections (available to premium subscribers) don't see him being very popular tonight. If that's going to be the case, this is an arm players have to consider.