Michael Pineda Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

It was a rough start to the season for Pineda, who posted a 4.99 xFIP and 1.48 WHIP through April as he shook off rust from not pitching in the MLB since 2017. Over the past 30 days though, Pineda has turned it around with a respectable 3.18 ERA, 3.83 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA with a 21% K rate and just a 3.5% BB rate. Even more impressively, Pineda has posted just a .277 xwOBA allowed over that time frame with an 86.5 MPH aEV. Pineda gets a nice matchup today versus the Royals who have just a 91 wRC+ and 22.4% K rate on the year vs. right-handed pitching. They will have just 3 hitters in the lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .320 vs. RHP so far this year. The Royals’ bats have really struggled of late as they also have a 2nd worst 76 wRC+ over the past 30 days. On a slate that is pretty dry at SP, Pineda is suddenly a very intriguing play, especially at a very affordable $6.7k on Draftkings and $6.7k as well on Fanduel. The Royals have a 4.57 implied line vs. Pineda and the Twins in pitcher friendly Kauffman stadium, which feels a bit high.

Los Angeles could be a nice spot to look for the long ball tonight. Michael Pineda and Trevor Cahill have combined to allow 27 HRs in 91 innings already. Each has an xwOBA above .360, which extends above .370 over the last month. Pineda did not pitch last season (Tommy John), but a .387 wOBA with eight of his 13 HRs from RHBs immediately conjures thoughts of Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .321 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Pineda has never allowed this much damage to RHBs, but really doesn’t have a platoon split for his career. While Cahill has allowed nine of his 14 HRs to RHBs with just 17 more PAs against him that LHBs, it’s batters with the platoon advantage that have assaulted him for a .448 wOBA this season. Max Kepler (105 wRC+, .213 ISO), Eddie Rosario (109 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (147 wRC+, .202 ISO) are bats to focus on here. One could do worse than Jason Castro (172 wRC+, .431 ISO) at catcher as well. This game will additionally feature a hitter friendly umpire (Marvin Hudson) with both teams implied for exactly 4.5 runs.

Pineda has been largely the same pitcher this year that we’re used to seeing: he limits walks and gets a decent amount of Ks, but gives up lots of loud contact and seemingly always has an ERA much higher than his estimators. This year, Pineda is giving up more loud contact than ever with a 45.9% hard contact rate, a 1.85 HR/9 and just a 36.7% GB rate, all career worsts. He also has a 90.9 aEV and .357 xwOBA allowed, also career worsts. Pineda has actually been worse vs. RHB this year with a .381 xwOBA allowed so far. Nick Castellanos (.365 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Miguel Cabrera (.354), Gordon Beckham (.345, 83 PA), Ronny Rodriguez (.291) and John Hicks (.287) are right-handed options in the Tigers projected order. Christin Stewart (.365) and Jeimer Candelario (.281) project to hit in the top third of the order and are also in play. Ronny Rodriguez has been the Tigers hottest hitter over the past 10 days with a .398 xwOBA. Tigers bats should be pretty contrarian given just a 3.75 implied line Saturday afternoon in Minnesota.

Michael Pineda hasn’t been bad an even pitches in a favorable run environment with a pitcher friendly umpire tonight, but make no mistake, this is a terrible spot for him and the underlying numbers suggest he could run into some problems facing a predominantly right-handed lineup, as same-handed batters have hammered him for a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .370 so far with a 54.8 Hard% and just a 25.8 GB%. Pineda has always suffered from HR issues (above 14 HR/FB each of the last four seasons he’s pitched). The books are in agreement here as Houston is one of only two teams outside Coors above five implied runs tonight. The top of the Houston order is expensive tonight, but salary shouldn’t be much of an issue without a single pitcher on the board exceeding $10K on either site. Fill up with some George Springer (122 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jose Altuve (139 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Alex Bregman (163 wRC+, .263 ISO) in a high upside spot.

Michael Pineda has had no problem shaking off the rust so far in 2019 with a 2.00 ERA / 3.25 xFIP and 25% K-BB. Pineda has always been talented (career 3.33 xFIP / 3.38 SIERA and 18.9% K-BB) but his ERA (4.02 for his career) has always seemed to lag behind his peripherals. Perhaps he just needed a change of scenery. Pineda is extremely affordable across the industry Saturday and faces a weak Tigers lineup that has an implied total of just 3.35 runs. The Tigers have just 2 batters that were above a .310 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018 and struck out at a 23% clip vs. RHP as a team last year. They currently have a 24th ranked .288 xwOBA to start 2019. Also working in Pineda’s favor is that he has been slightly better at home with a .294 xwOBA against in home starts versus a .303 xwOBA on the road since 2015.

On FanDuel he projects as a close second to Michael Pineda, but he costs $2,700 more on the site ($8.300). Although he's coming off a terrible outing against the Nationals in which he allowed three dingers and eight earned runs, he appears to be too cheap on DK. On the season, he has a 20.5% K% and 9.9% SwStr% - he'll face a Rays lineup with a 20.6% K% against RHP. Pineda (23.2% K%, 12.4% SwStr%), Sonny Gray (22.9% K%, 11.6% SwStr%), and Marco Estrada (25.1%, 11.8% SwStr%) have him beat in those categories and in SIERA, but Gray and Pineda both costs $9k or more on DK and Estrada is an underdog against the Yankees this afternoon. Not only is Lackey a favorite (and the Rays have the third-lowest implied total - 4.19), but he tops our K-Predictor on this slate (6.88). Rostering Lackey as an SP2 on DK allows for a ton of cap space, but he doesn't seem as appealing on FanDuel with Gray and Pineda both within $400.