Michael Wacha Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The main slate is incredibly dry at pitcher today, so we really have to get creative here as there isn’t much to choose from. Michael Wacha has been pretty mediocre again this year – 4.97 ERA / 4.79 xFIP / 5.03 SIERA, 9.3% K-BB, 1.55 WHIP, 47.6% GB rate and 9.4% SwStr. However, he has been pitching much better over the past month, putting up a 2.91 ERA, 3.99 SIERA and 3.72 xFIP with a 26.7% K Rate, 7.8% BB Rate and 1.20 WHIP. Wacha is pitching at home this afternoon vs. the Brewers, who are not a dangerous offense without Christian Yelich and away from Miller Park. Without Yelich, the Brewers only have 3 hitters who have a wRC+ vs. RHP greater than 100 on the year. Wacha will also have the advantage of a very pitcher friendly umpire in Phil Cuzzi. Wacha is below $7500 on both major sites and will likely be a popular option today given that there is just nothing to choose from at SP. The Brewers currently have a 4.27 implied total vs. Wacha and the Cards.

To say that Milwaukee backers were disappointed last night would be an understatement. However, that fact may be part of the reason players should consider going back to that well tonight. While the park in St Louis generally suppresses home runs and run scoring in general, conditions suggest that may not be the case tonight (Weather Edge and umpire ratings are available to premium subscribers) and Michael Wacha has some of the worst numbers on the board, including the highest xwOBA for the season (.364) and at home since last season (.360). He combines a 7.3 K-BB% with a 22.8 HR/FB and has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last six starts. Slightly different from the case last night, Wacha has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate over the last year (RHBs .397 wOBA, .375 xwOBA - LHBs 331 wOBA, .345 xwOBA), which puts not only the left-handed power of Christian Yelich (218 wRC+, .435 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Mike Moustakas (110 wRC+, .257 ISO), and Yasmani Grandal (115 wRC+, .201 ISO) in play, but also Keston Hiura (168 wRC+, .318 ISO). Despite nearly being no-hit last night, each of the batters mentioned still carries a wRC+ above 140 over the last seven days. In addition, while Trent Grisham has struggled (73 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP), an appearance at the top of the lineup for less than $3K on DraftKings might help players afford Hiura and Yelich above $5K. After last night’s performance, it’s possible ownership on Milwaukee bats will be down tonight, while they are still projected right around a healthy five runs once again.

Michael Wacha is striking out batters at a below average rate (18.6% over the last month) and is up to a 13 BB% with an 18.4 HR/FB on the season. His 24.3 LD% further supports a .353 xwOBA. This may be an opportune time to take a look at some St Louis bats, especially with Sam Holbrook behind the plate. While over the last year, RHBs are hitting Wacha better than LHBs (.333 wOBA to .303), Statcast brings that under some scrutiny as LHBs have a 47.6 Hard%, 36.9 GB% and .349 xwOBA against Wacha (RHBs .345). The main point here is that batters from either side of the plate have some value here with Ronald Acuna (131 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Josh Donaldson (120 wRC+, .198 ISO, 53.5 Hard%) and Freddie Freeman (126 wRC+, .173 ISO) standing out. Each of the three have been hitting the ball well over the last week as well. Acuna and Freeman are above a 60% hard hit rate over that span, while Freeman has a 179 wRC+.

Adam Frazier has an impressive 133 wRC+ and .210 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, but those might not even be the most interesting numbers here. Michael Wacha has been pretty average by most metrics this year until you get to his obtrusive 14.8% walk rate. Walks aren’t generally what daily fantasy players are looking for, but if Frazier can just get on base a couple of times and score a run or two, he’ll be able to pay off a price of $3.4K or less on either site tonight. St Louis is not considered a hitter friendly park and weather conditions won’t enhance that tonight, but great hitting weather and parks don’t really exist anywhere tonight, nor is there a single pitcher players should really be targeting. At the least, Frazier helps pave the way towards some of the more expensive pitchers tonight.

Since Michael Wacha's eight innings of one-hit ball, he's allowed 10 ERs over 9.2 innings with four HRs, seven walks and eight strikeouts (48 batters faced). Most of the damage was done by the Cubs in his last start. In fact, it snapped a string of 10 straight starts of two runs or less. Even with that beating, his strikeout rate and estimators are around league average this year, though his .361 xwOBA is surpassed by only a few pitchers for the entire day. The Phillies have a 94 wRC+ and 26.6 K% vs RHP, but a team 129 wRC+ and 19.7 HR/FB over the last seven days. Both Rhys Hoskins (141 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Odubel Herrera (128 wRC+, .194 ISO) exceed a 200 wRC+ over the last week. RHBs actually have a wOBA 31 points higher than LHBs against Wacha since last season, though LHBs jump 46 points to a 16 point lead using xwOBA.