Miguel Gonzalez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Miguel Gonzalez, somehow, provided league average production against RHBs (.314 wOBA, .328 xwOBA, 30.9 Hard%) against RHBs, though he generated ground balls just 38.9% of the time. LHBs torched him for a .360 wOBA (.354 xwOBA) and 34.3 Hard% (33.5 GB%) though, en-root to a 4.62 ERA with estimators even higher. The Blue Jays currently top the board with a 5.23 implied run line and provide strong value with four hitters LHBs in the top six tonight, three of whom cost $3K or less on either site and Justin Smoak's (128 wRC+, .270 ISO, 40.7 Hard% vs RHP since last season) $3.7K price tag on DraftKings almost seems like a mistake. Leadoff man Curtis Granderson (112 wRC+, .246 ISO) costs the absolute minimum on FanDuel. His 49.6% fly ball rate against RHP is in the top 10% on tonight's board. Yangervis Solarte (107 wRC+, .195 ISO) is a low cost middle infield option. Josh Donaldson (141 wRC+, .259 ISO) has eased injury concerns with an extra-base hit in two of his last three games.

In addition to both teams at Coors, eight more lineups are projected for 4.8 runs or better by Vegas tonight. That's a bit over one-third of the board on a 14 game slate in total, but aside from the Rockies, the Dodgers (5.84) are the only other team above 5.4 runs. They host the White Sox and Miguel Gonzalez, who has allowed just 16 HRs, but he has just a 12.7 K% with a 39.4 GB% with an 87.8 mph aEV. That sounds like a feast for not only Cody Bellinger (159 wRC+, .386 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Seager (134 wRC+, .197 ISO), but for the rest of the Dodger lineup as well since Gonzalez exhibits virtually no platoon split. Joc Pederson (112 wRC+, .227 ISO) could be the most polarizing bat in the lineup. He has a -44 wRC+ and 21.4 Hard% over the last week. He's a prime candidate for popups if not strike outs tonight, but is also plenty capable of running into one if Gonazlez refuses to miss his bat.

Collin McHugh has only pitched in two games in a year in which Logan Morrison has had a breakout, so it's a bit of surprise that none of his four HRs against McHugh have come this season. Over the past two years, his seven BBEs have a 104.9 mph aEV. It would lend one to think he's in a good spot tonight, but Lucas Duda is also red hot, so players will have a decision to make if they like a Tampa Bay first baseman tonight. Jason Castro also has four HRs against A.J. Griffin (18 PAs) with a 98.2 mph aEV on eight BBEs. While Griffiin is an extreme fly ball pitcher, Castro generally bats at the bottom of the order and weather conditions are expected to be awful in Minnesota tonight. Hanley Ramirez also has a pair of HRs in 11 PAs against Miguel Gonzalez with a 103.7 mph aEV on eight BBEs. First Base is very crowded tonight. The Red Sox also have dual first base threats and the highest projected run line tonight. Brandon Guyer is unlikely to play against Sonny Gray, unless Francona uses BvP to build his lineup. Guyer has two HRs and a 96.4 mph aEV on seven BBEs against Gray. Mookie Betts is one of two batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight's opposing pitcher and the only one with an aEV above 90 mph (92.3 mph), but he has only one HR with no extra-base hits in 20 PAs against Gonzalez.

Boston is projected for a slate leading 6.12 runs against Miguel Gonzalez tonight. Gonzalez had a 2.33 ERA in July, but with just a 14.4 K%, 18.0 Hard-Soft% and non-FIP estimators above five. Even his FIP was 3.93 without allowing a single HR in the month. The Red Sox are suddenly the hottest team on the slate (128 wRC+ over the last week), but that's more a product of just making contact than an increase in power. Their 10 HR/FB over this span is the same as their mark against RHP this year. Eduardo Nunez has been the lead bat with a 293 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs over the last seven days. Hanley Ramirez has a pair of HRs against Gonzalez with a 103.7 mph aEV on eight BBEs. While a projection above six runs might be aggressive, we should certainly expect the Red Sox to score some runs tonight. Nine more teams have an implied run line between 4.8 and 5.6 tonight, making it half of a 20 team slate above that mark tonight. Third Base looks like a particularly strong position tonight. Along with Nunez, Justin Turner faces a lefty in Atlanta (223 wRC+, .347 ISO vs LHP this year) and Manny Machado (162 wRC+ last seven days) goes against Matt Boyd (RHBs .351 wOBA, 35.5 Hard% since last season) at home. Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2016) may be the top overall matchup on the slate against Chad Kuhl (LHBs .374 wOBA, 36.8 Hard% since 2016) with Jesse Winker (244 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days) a top value play if near the top of the lineup again. Cincinnati is implied for just 3.96 runs, but their LHBs may have the top matchup on the board.

It's a fly ball night. Twelve of tonight's 30 pitchers have a 40% ground ball rate or lower (last two calendar years). We can use Baseball Reference to find which teams have done well or poorly against fly ball pitchers. At the top of the pile, we find the Dodgers (119 sOPS+) against Miguel Gonzalez (39.6 GB%). They have a top three implied run line and should be well represented in daily fantasy lineups. Colorado is the next best offense (109 sOPS+) and owns the top run line tonight (6.22). While Dinelson Lamet exceeds a 30% strikeout rate, this further complicates a 15.1% Barrels/BBE. On the other end of the spectrum, Toronto (88 sOPS+), Texas (87) and San Francisco (84) are all bottom six offenses against fly ball pitchers. The latter may provide the best spot to use a pitcher though. Mike Clevinger has a 12.9 BB% that often detracts from his 27.5 K%. The Giants don't strike out much, but the matchup provides a great run prevention spot in an extremely negative run environment against an offense with little power. (25 Hard%, 6.1 HR/FB at home, 9.0 HR/FB, 28.4 Hard% vs RHP). Alternately, there is only one true ground ball pitcher on the slate with a sample size of 10 starts (Sam Gaviglio 50.3 GB%). Tyson Ross has a 54.2 GB% in 20 starts over the last two calendar years, but just a 38.9 GB% since returning from injury in five starts this year.

Several batters have multiple HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight with strong supporting exit velocity rates. Jose Abreu has punished Corey Kluber with three long balls and a 93.7 mph aEV on 14 BBEs, though he has also struck out in 10 of 38 PAs. Players might be inclined to side with Carlos Santana against Miguel Gonzalez, who has been punished by LHBs with a wOBA above .400 with a 40% hard hit rate over the last month, but it's Edwin Encarnacion, who has homered three times in 38 PAs against him with a 93.7 mph aEV on 10 BBEs with just three strikeouts. Matt Kemp has also handled Matt Harvey well with three HRs in 15 PAs (two this year) and a 94.8 mph aEV on nine BBEs. Interestingly, three of the batters with two HRs against tonight's pitcher are Mets (Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, and Jay Bruce) with Bruce having the highest aEV (94.8 mph) and the fewest PAs (29).

Though few games take place in extremely positive run environments tonight (Arizona, Boston and Cleveland being the most notable exceptions with the jury still out on Atlanta), 11 offenses still have an implied run line of 4.8 runs or more on a 14 game slate. With only Boston (vs Jordan Zimmerman) and Cleveland (vs Miguel Gonzalez) projected above 5.1 runs, it should be another day with ownership well spread out. One interesting name to potentially consider for exposure to a top offense at a low price is Bradley Zimmer tonight. He has a 182 wRC+ and .381 ISO vs RHP with a 48.3 Hard% since being called up. While he's been hitting the ball on the ground more than you'd like to see (48.6%), but his 94.6 mph aEV and 16.2% Barrels/BBE dictate that he is making some good contact as well. He was surprisingly under-owned at a low cost in Colorado earlier in the week and remains less than $4K on DK (exactly $3K on FD) in another great spot tonight. Miguel Gonzalez has allowed seven HRs over his last five starts with just a 10.5 K% (4.8 SwStr%). LHBs have a .406 wOBA and 40 Hard% against him over that span, while he's kept them on the ground only 39.6% of the time since last year. While you may be inclined to utilize guys like Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana/Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez in your Cleveland stacks, be sure to include Zimmer as well or even consider him in one off spots.

Victor Martinez has a BvP leading four HRs against Ubaldo Jimenez and while many of their 38 matchups took place prior to Statcast, he still has an excellent 94.2 mph aEV on eight recorded BBEs. J.D. Martinez also has eight recorded BBEs against Jimenez with an impressive 98.3 mph aEV and two HRs. Mike Trout has three HRs against Miguel Gonzalez. Almost all of their 19 matchups occurred before Statcast (two BBEs), players can likely feel confident in this hitter's abilities.

Miguel Gonzalez will be dealing with substantial wind blowing out of a hitter’s park and facing a team with a good number of home run hitters. Gonzalez has had very good fortune with a 5.5% HR/FB rate to right-handed batters this season, but historically, reverse splits power (1.35 HR/9 vs RHB) has been an issue for him. He allows fly balls to left-handed batters as well, and has also seen a bit of good fortune on HR/FB there as well (9.1%). Evan Longoria (132 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .263 ISO vs RHP), Logan Forsythe (.180 ISO vs RHP), Nick Franklin (138 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .213 ISO vs RHP), Brad Miller (121 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Dickerson (.264 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays, with Longoria and Dickerson being notably under-priced on FanDuel.

Miguel Gonzalez has a 3.83 ERA being suppressed by a career low 6.9 HR/FB that is completely unsustainable, especially for a guy who's normally run higher than average HR rates. In three starts since returning from the DL, he hasn't allowed a single HR and has struck out just 10 of 81 batters. Cleveland has one of the best home offenses in baseball (121 wRC+) and Vegas is not buying on Gonzalez (4.8 run projection). Crisp and Perez are the only batters in the lineup with a wRC+ below 113 vs RHP, while Santana, Napoli and Naquin all add an ISO above .240. While Naquin (141 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) does bat eighth, he costs just $2.9K on FanDuel. Jason Kipnis (119 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP this season) may be the other value play at a difficult position for just $3.5K on FD. Carlos Santana (140 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 308 wRC+ over the last week.