Mike Fiers Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mike Fiers couldn’t make it out of the second inning (12 ERs) in two consecutive starts in the state of Texas before returning home to throw eight shutout innings against the Rangers in the rematch last time out. He’s a contact prone pitcher (16.6 K%), who doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, while his ERA (3.91) is more than a run below estimators due to a .253 BABIP and 78.9 LOB%. However, he does pitch in front of a quality defense (.278 BABIP allowed) in a park that benefits fly ball pitchers (39.3 GB%) with a lot of foul territory. He’s not pitching at home tonight, but at least transitions to another firmly negative run environment in Seattle against an offense that has been spiraling downward. While the Mariners actually have a few interesting left-handed bats, Fiers has a bit of reverse split (LHBs .295 wOBA, .145 ISO). Over the last week, this offense has a 16 wRC+ with a 23.7 K-BB% and a 7.5 HR/FB. The most ridiculous stat is a -6.9 Hard-Soft% over this span. Fiers is not a pitcher daily fantasy players often talk about, but considering the state of pitching on tonight’s slate where we have a lot of uncertain workloads or pitchers we know won’t go very deep, Fiers makes some sense for around $8K, pitching for a team that hasn’t yet locked in their post-season spot.

Mike Minor has been an incredibly effective pitcher for the Rangers this season, as his 3.33 ERA confirms. While traditional estimators are around a run higher, a 3.69 DRA and .298 xwOBA backed by just 30.1% of his contact above a 95 mph EV confirm his quality work. He also gets a substantial park upgrade tonight. However, he may be a pitcher daily fantasy players can look to attack tonight. Minor’s efficiency has waned down the stretch. He’s likely to clear 200 innings tonight. His total number of innings pitched from 2015 through 2018 is less than 280. He’s allowed at least four runs in four of his last six starts and has just a 16.9 K% over the last 30 days with a 5.23 ERA and 5.21 SIERA. Last time out, these A's took him deep three times. It was in Texas and surprisingly only the second time he’s faced them this season (4 runs in six innings in Oakland in April), but this is an offense that has pummeled LHP all season long (113 wRC+, 19.4 K%, 27 Hard-Soft%). There’s a decent chance they get to Minor again here. Matt Chapman (132 wRC+, .312 ISO) and Khris Davis (136 wRC+, .248 ISO) have been potent bats against southpaws and each cost less than $4K on DraftKings. Rostering both would offer high upside on the offensive side with a potential path towards high priced pitching as well. Mark Canha (113 wRC+, .220 ISO) is right at the $4K mark as well. With Minor potentially wearing down due to a heavy workload, Oakland bats may offer some value even in a negative run environment.

Additionally, Mike Fiers has had the beard knocked right off his face over his last three starts (16 runs over 7.2 innings, including eight HRs). This isn’t how regression typically works, but he has a .437 xwOBA over the last month and that’s still 61 points better than his actual results. He lasted eight batters against these Rangers in Texas last time out, but those considering Ranger bats should realize it’s a below average offense and his leash will be very short here with the A’s fighting for a wild card spot.

This is the 2nd straight year that Fiers has outpitched his peripherals, as he currently has a 4.09 ERA / 5.28 xFIP / 5.24 SIERA in 171 and 2/3 innings after posting a 3.56 ERA / 4.51 xFIP / 4.25 SIERA over 172 innings in 2018. Fiers’ Statcast numbers are a bit better than what his peripherals show, as he’s posted a slightly below average .337 xwOBA allowed this year, and a .336 xwOBA allowed in 2018. Fiers gets a matchup tonight with a Rangers team that has a league-worst 69 wRC+ and 25.8% K rate over the past 30 days, and an 89 wRC+ with a 25.6% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Fiers doesn’t have much of upside at least in terms of strikeouts (16.5% K rate this year) but he should be able to eat innings here as the Rangers currently have just a 3.73 implied total. Best of all, he is a dirt cheap $5.7k on Draftkings and makes for an intriguing SP2, and is also affordable on Fanduel at $6.8k. He projects are one of the better PTS/$ arms on both sites.

Mike Fiers continues to do unimaginable things, although he’s coming off allowing four runs to the Angels in five innings. His 3.51 ERA is well more than a run below estimators and even if you believe in his 12.2 HR/FB in a favorable park, his 4.75 FIP still labels him a below average pitcher. His ERA has grown more than a quarter of a run over the last month (3.77) and his strikeout rate has actually increased to 20.2% over that span. His 16.7 K% is worst on the board among those with more than three starts and if you think he’s excelling in contact management, his .327 xwOBA is also 28 points worse than his actual mark. The Astros are one of few teams to get to him this year as well. They homered four times against him in an August 15th start and have six of the 24 HRs he’s allowed this year (25%) in just 15 innings with just eight strikeouts. The smart bet is for Houston to touch Fiers up yet again. Although he’s moving from one negative run environment to another, Houston is more power friendly and we have the most contact prone offense (18.5 K% vs RHP) facing the lowest strikeout rate on the board with just a 40% ground ball rate. The first seven batters in the projected lineup for Houston are all above a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP this year. In addition, RHBs have a .341 xwOBA against Fiers, which serves the top half of this order well. George Springer (156 wRC+, .278 ISO), Jose Altuve (122 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Alex Bregman (145 wRC+, .235 ISO) are a powerhouse combination tonight.

Mike Fiers has survived a low strikeout rate (15.8%) due to a great defense (.277 team BABIP) and lots of popups (39.9 GB%, 15.8 IFFB%) in a park designed to increase those results. Still, even his .324 xwOBA won’t subscribe to his 3.64 ERA, while non-FIP estimators are all at least a run removed. He’ll remain in a negative run environment in Houston, but one without so much foul ground and as Homer Baily found out last night, this Houston team can rake. In addition to their 115 wRC+ and 18.3 K% vs RHP, they are the hottest team in the land, leading the majors with a 152 wRC+ over the last week (24.6 HR/FB, 36.5 Hard-Soft%). While Fiers has hidden his contact issues with RHBs behind a .314 wOBA over the last calendar year, a .366 xwOBA and 42 Hard% suggest more difficulty and that’s bad news against a Houston offense featuring several prominent RH bats who handle same-handed pitching well. Implied for 5.3 runs (fourth), George Springer (152 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Alex Bregman (155 wRC+, .256 ISO) strong options tonight. How hard has Houston been hitting the ball recently? The only batter in the projected lineup with more than 10 PAs over the last week (excluding only Aledmys Diaz) below a 50% hard hit rate and 139 wRC+ is Josh Reddick (25 wRC+, 21.1 Hard%). The good fortune of Mike Fiers could come to an abrupt halt tonight.

Mike Fiers has a 4.76 ERA, 16.7 K%, 5.06 SIERA, 5.54 DRA, 88.9 mph aEV and .335 xwOBA. It’s difficult to find a glimmer of positive light anywhere in there. He did throw a no-hitter, but that might make these numbers look even worse because how bad would they be without that? Tonight, he faces a powerhouse offense too (yes, let’s call Tampa Bay what they are now). The Rays have a team 115 wRC+ and 16.5 HR/FB vs RHP and they don’t let a negative run environment in Tampa Bay stop them. They have a 111 wRC+ and 16.7 HR/FB there this season. Fiers has a below average 40.2 GB%. More fly balls…more home runs? Over the last year, Fiers has been slightly better against LHBs, meaning about league average (.300 wOBA, .315 xwOBA), while RHBs have a .309 wOBA, but .359 xwOBA. Batters from both sides of the plate have been above a 40% hard hit rate against him over that span. The Rays can attack from either side of the plate with Austin Meadows (153 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Brandon Lowe (136 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Ji-Man Choi (146 wRC+, .228 ISO) from the left side and Tommy Pham (136 wRC+, .209 ISO), Avisail Garcia (110 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Yandy Diaz (113 wRC+, .173 ISO) from the right. A 4.97 implied run line for the Rays places them just inside the top third of teams tonight.

Mike Fiers has been nothing special since his no-hitter (or prior to it really). He’s sitting on a 16.4 K% with 42.1% of his contact allowed above a 95 mph exit velocity. His 4.78 ERA is still well below estimators all above five due to an unsustainable .229 BABIP. A .334 xwOBA concurs, 24 points above his actual mark. All attention will likely be paid to Yankee and Ranger bats projected much higher, but the Angels are third on the board with a run line of exactly five. The Angels make contact at about the same rate that Fiers misses bats, which means a lot of balls in play tonight. While the A’s have shown and above average defense, they’re going to have to do some amazing work to back Fiers here. A reverse split, RHBs have a .316 wOBA, but .360 xwOBA against Fiers over the last 12 months, which basically means players should load up on Mike Trout (196 wRC+, .326 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), but unless the Angels decide to push David Fletcher (112 wRC+, .101 ISO) to the top of the lineup here, it’s going to be LHBs like Tommy La Stella (128 wRC+, .207 ISO), Shohei Ohtani (155 wRC+, .314 ISO) and Kole Calhoun (126 wRC+, .272 ISO) that should draw players’ interest as well. Fiers has only been league average by xwOBA (.312) against LHBs with a 41% hard hit rate.

Astros bats are usually expensive but have been priced down due to their environment in O.co tonight despite a matchup with Mike Fiers. They will be without Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve but have some interesting value options in their lineup. Fiers has been awful this year with a 5 ERA / 5.39 xFIP / 5.08 SIERA with a 9.5% K-BB, 44% FB rate and just a 7% SwStr. Fiers hasn’t shown any signs of improvement either, with a 5.24 xFIP, 5.45 SIERA and 8% K-BB over the past 30 days. Alex Bregman (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Michael Brantley (.376), Josh Reddick (.323) and Yuli Gurriel (.297) are decent options vs. Fiers Friday night. Derek Fisher (128 wRC+ in AAA this year) projects to lead off at just $3.4k on Draftkings. Gurriel projects to bat 4th and is just $3.1k, while Reddick projects to bat 5th at just $3.2k. Bregman and Brantley are both under $4.4k despite their continued success against RHP. The Astros have a 4.43 implied line vs. Fiers and the A’s.

Happy Vlady Jr. day to all our Canadian friends out there. The question for daily fantasy players is whether to Vlad or not tonight. Perhaps you have not heard that he’s simply destroyed pitching everywhere he’s gone (175 wRC+ at AAA last season, 186 in 33 PAs this year). That part is simple, but let’s explore this from the opposing pitcher’s standpoint. Mike Fiers has been terrible this season. He’s allowed exactly six runs in three straight starts and at least five with a HR in four of six overall. He’s missing fewer bats than usual (17 K%) and although his ERA is well above his estimators, they’re all still sitting firmly above five. Statcast suggests the contact profile is not too bad (.349 xwOBA is 45 points below actual) with a decent 87 mph aEV, but he’s a fly ball pitcher (41.7 GB%) with a park downgrade tonight, so the answer is…Yes, some Vlad Jr. exposure is justifiable for sure. Of course, you won’t be alone on this, but DFS is more about fun than profit, is it not? And who doesn’t want to watch and root for the junior Guerrero, who’s already pushed Mike Trout off the pedestal and claimed the title of best player in the majors before he’s even made his debut. Guerrero costs a reasonable $4.3K on DraftKings and $3.2K on FanDuel and if the hype is right, he won’t be in that price range for long.