Mike Mayers Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Tonight’s top projected value on both sites is a matchup and price play. Mike Mayers has struck out nine of 42 batters (12.6 SwStr%), though two starts, but has also walked five and allowed three home runs. With most of his work out of the bullpen, he has an average 13.0 K-BB%, but major issues in a contact profile that includes a 29.1 GB%, 91.1 mph EV, 12.8% Barrels/BBE and 48.7% 95+ mph EV. His 5.19 xERA nearly matches his 5.17 ERA with contact neutral estimators half a run to a run lower. This could be the most positive run environment on the board outside Coors tonight, but the Tigers have a 70 wRC+ (25.9 K%, 7.4 HR/FB) on the road and 71 wRC+ (25.2 K%, 7.2 HR/FB) vs RHP. Are you using Mayers on a single pitcher site for $5.8K? It’s almost interesting in GPPs. The much easier question is for DraftKings players at less than $5K. Plug him in and stack Coors.

Each of the next five best projected values cost at least $9.5K on DraftKings and were already covered in Top of the Board Pitching Analysis. On FanDuel, Jose Quintana breaks through that group, but has virtually no upside. He has moved to a great park with a great defense (17 Runs Prevented), but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have to strike out anyone. After punching out 13 of his first 46 post-trade batters faced, he’s struck out just seven of his last 80 with eight walks, but a terrific contact profile (53.1 GB%, 86.8 mph EV). Quintana has allowed a barrel in just one of his last five starts, but you’d still probably like to see a few more strikeouts than walks. Non-FIP estimators (6.6 HR/FB) range from a 3.84 xFIP to a 4.73 DRA behind an 11.8 K-BB%. The Nationals have just a 20.3 K% vs LHP (92 wRC+), but 137 wRC+ and 19.9 K% over the last week. Quintana is a pure run prevention play. You’re basically playing the park and defense for less than $8.5K.

It is really difficult to find much on the lower half of the board to like, but realize that almost every park east of Coors has a pitcher friendly weather forecast tonight, so maybe a Kyle Bradish, who has muted the hard contact issues in his second go around in the big leagues, or Mitch White could be a viable SP2 for less than $7K in Baltimore. Or even Justin Dunn, who’s looked much better in his last two starts, at Wrigley.

When filtering LineupHQ by P/$, which are value projections, we’re finding a lot of the spot starter types pop atop the board, especially on FanDuel, where it’s a problem if they don’t make it through six innings. The top projected value on either site tonight is currently Mike Mayers (though projections are updated throughout the day). He has worked exclusively out of the pen this year, while his three major league career starts were more openings, but the Angels have been slowly stretching him out in the pen, up to where he threw 96 pitches in his last outing. His 14.2 K-BB% in relief is fine, but he’s allowed eight home runs and 12 barrels (13.5%) with just a 29.2 GB%, which is not necessarily a killer in this park. Mayers is still throwing his four-seamer (-1.4 RV/100, 21.8 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .280) about half of the time, even as he stretches out and includes more secondaries. That won’t necessarily hurt him here, as the Rays have struggled with fastballs this year (-0.23 wFB/C). He’s also pitching in the most negative run environment on the board tonight for $5.6K or less. He’s a viable arm here, especially as an SP2 on DraftKings. The Rays have a 101 wRC+ and 24.5 K% vs RHP this season.

Christopher Sanchez and Brayan Bello are currently top three projected FanDuel pitching values as well, but aren’t pitchers you want to consider using on a single pitcher site and may even be questionable in your SP2 spot tonight. Lucas Giolito projecting as a top five value on either site is a different story. He has allowed just four home runs on four barrels (2.5%) over his last 10 starts, but he’s also down to a 24.2 K% over that span (25.9% on the season) with a 5.26 ERA. However, estimators are below four over this span (16.5 K-BB%). What had been a home run problem is now a BABIP (.373) and strand rate (64%) problem. Neither is much fun, but this is less concerning that barrel issues and often times fixes itself with sequencing. Giolito’s season ERA (5.34) is still well above estimators ranging from a 3.61 xFIP to a 4.21 xERA. Not the Cy Young candidate we thought he might be, but better days should be ahead and his price is discounted (less than $9K) in the now pitcher friendly confines of Baltimore, facing a predominantly right-handed Orioles’ lineup (102 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs RHP) where we do have to be at least a bit concerned about his reverse split (RHBs .415 wOBA, .348 xwOBA).

Also projecting strongly from a value standpoint, like most of the St Louis rotation, Miles Mikolas lets his great defense (17 Runs Prevented) do a lot of the work (18.8 K%). What he does better that most of his rotation mates is walk just 4.4% of batters, which allows him to pitch even deeper into games. He’s gone at least seven innings in six of his last eight starts and at least eight in four of his last 14, including his last two. His 3.32 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.67 FIP to a 3.96 SIERA, but his defense might keep it there. Mikolas is sinker. four-seam, curveball about three quarters of the time. The Cubs have hit both fastballs (0.22 wFB/C) and sliders (0.07 wSL/C) better than most teams in the league. If you’re rostering Mikolas, it’s for the workload and run prevention, not the upside and he does cost $2K more on FanDuel. The Cubs have been a perfectly average offense vs RHP (100 wRC+, 23.1 K% vs RHP).

One extremely volatile arm that probably can’t be completely ignored on this slate is Jose Berrios. Coming into his last start, Berrios had allowed 13 runs over 7.2 innings with twice as many home runs and walks (four each) as strikeouts (two). He proceeded to strike out nine of 28 Yankees with one walk and no home runs. That’s the type of pitcher he is in a nutshell, though the barrels have been more frequent (11%) and the strikeouts much less so (20.9%) this season. His 5.39 ERA is well above most estimators, running as low as a 3.96 SIERA, but aligns nearly perfectly with a 5.36 xERA. On a positive note, Boston’s weak spot (-0.39 wCB/C) has been Berrios’s most frequent (32.3%) and best pitch this year (-0.5 RV/100, 31.5 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .280). They’ve also been a pretty mediocre offense against RHP (96 wRC+, 21.7 K%, 9.1 HR/FB), which sort of helps balance out the most positive run environment on the slate. Berrios costs just $7.2K on DraftKings, where he could help win someone a GPP, but if not, you’ll at least probably know early on.