Mike Pelfrey Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Indians are running their normal lineup out tonight and the White Sox are running Mike Pelfrey out. Perhaps Cleveland is invested in gaining home field advantage from the Astros with one game of separation. Stacking LH Cleveland bats is an ideal option tonight. Mike Pelfrey has started one game since the first week of August. LHBs torch him (.362 wOBA, 14 HRs, 42.5 GB%, 33.7 Hard%). RHBs have hit him well too (.346 wOBA, 10 HRs), but with less contact prowess (57.5 GB%, 27.5 Hard%). Edwin Encarnacion (137 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP) is probably the one RHB to consider. Francisco Lindor (112 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Ramirez (143 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP) are elite options tonight, though all three are quite expensive on either site.

Mike Pelfrey continues to be just a mediocre-at-best starting pitcher at this point in his career and is essentially just an innings-eater for a Chicago White Sox rotation that is waiting on some younger arms to develop at the minor league level, proven by the fact he has no allowed five more earned runs in two consecutive starts. However, Pelfrey seems to just do well enough against right-handed batters on a consistent basis to tight rope his way through outings from start to start. The most common mistake in attacking Pelfrey with opposing hitters is to just blindly stack against him, as he has allowed just a .299 wOBA to righties this season that is backed up by an elite 58.2% groundball rate and 26.8% hard hit rate, despite the lowly 14.6% strikeout rate, the only real negative aspect of his pitching profile to righties. On the other hand, Pelfrey has been horrendous against left-handed batters with a similar 14.3% strikeout rate but induces ground balls at a below-average 39.1% clip and surrenders a 34.3% hard hit rate. These splits are massively in favor of the left-handed batters on this Boston Red Sox offense. This makes Andrew Benintendi (110 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .176 ISO vs RHP) and Rafael Devers (191 wRC+, .461 wOBA, .345 ISO vs RHP in 27 PA) the premier options from this Red Sox lineup to take advantage of Pelfrey's .377 wOBA and 2.45 HR/9 allowed to lefties, while Mitch Moreland (.198 ISO vs RHP) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.174 ISO vs RHP) each possess enough of a skillset at the plate against right-handed pitching to contribute solid games as part of a Red Sox lefties stack in tournaments or contrarian one-offs as well. Although Brock Holt has had a rough stretch versus righties to begin his injury-shortened season, he looks to be a necessary salary-saving option in any Boston stack given his platoon advantage and position at leadoff in the Red Sox batting order Sunday afternoon

Daily fantasy players know what to do whenever Mike Pelfrey takes the mound. Stack up LH bats from the opposing team (.387 wOBA, 35.5 Hard%, 43.5 GB% since last since). RHBs are a bit more complicated because although they have a .330 wOBA against Big Pelf since last year, it comes with a 59.1 GB% and 25.9 Hard%. The issue is that the Blue Jays only have two competent LHBs and it's even worse for daily fantasy players because they both play First Base. Justin Smoak (140 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top overall bat in the lineup. Kendrys Morales (85 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP this year) is the salary savor on FanDuel ($2.8K). Considering what to do with the rest of the Toronto lineup, a stack encompassing any of the first seven batters in the order (Jose Baustisa through Ryan Goins) may be viable here, but you're looking for them to keep turning the wheel and scoring runs rather than expecting the RH batters to go deep. The Blue Jays do have the highest implied run line outside of Coors tonight (5.69) and most of their RHBs are either strong against same handed pitching, affordable, or both.

Mike Pelfrey continues to be just a mediocre-at-best starting pitcher at this point in his career and is essentially just an innings-eater for a Chicago White Sox rotation that is waiting on some younger arms to develop at the minor league level. He seems to just do well enough against right-handed batters on a consistent basis to tight rope his way through outings from start to start. The most common mistake in attacking Pelfrey with opposing hitters is to just blindly stack against him, but he has allowed just a .282 wOBA to righties this season, backed up by an elite 58.3% groundball rate and 25.0% hard hit rate despite the lowly 14.3% strikeout rate, the only real negative aspect of his pitching profile to righties. On the other hand, Pelfrey has been abysmal against left-handed batters with a similar 16.1% strikeout rate but induces ground balls at just a below-average 39.7% clip and surrenders a 33.3% hard hit rate. This makes Anthony Rizzo (119 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .224 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Schwarber (.248 ISO vs RHP) the premier options from this Chicago Cubs lineup to take advantage of Pelfrey's .368 wOBA and 2.02 HR/9 allowed to lefties, while Jon Jay (111 wRC+, .346 wOBA), Ben Zobrist, and Jason Heyward each possess enough of a skillset at the plate against right-handed pitching to contribute solid games as part of a Cubs lefties stack in tournaments as well.

Mike Pelfrey continues to be just a mediocre-at-best starting pitcher at this point in his career and is essentially just an innings-eater for a Chicago White Sox rotation that is waiting on some younger arms to develop at the minor league level. The most common mistake in attacking Pelfrey with opposing hitters is to just blindly stack against him, but he has allowed just a .279 wOBA to righties this season, backed up by an elite 58.1% groundball rate and 23.4% hard hit rate despite a lowly 16.4% strikeout rate, the only real negative aspect of his pitching profile to righties. On the other hand, Pelfrey has been abysmal against left-handed batters with a similar 16.1% strikeout rate but induces ground balls at just a below-average 37.8% clip and surrenders a 36.6% hard hit rate. This makes Robinson Cano (136 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .249 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (.180 ISO vs RHP) the premier options from this Seattle Mariners lineup to take advantage of Pelfrey's .369 wOBA allowed, while Ben Gamel (124 wRC+, .352 wOBA) and Jarrod Dyson (115 wRC+, .339 wOBA) each possess enough of a skillset at the plate against right-handed pitching to contribute solid games as part of a Mariners lefties stack in tournaments as well.

Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt are projected as tonight's top overall bats, both facing first time starters in Luis Castillo and Mark Leiter. Harper may have the more difficult matchup against Castillo, making his major league debut. He was a bit old for the league at 24, but posted a 21.4 K-BB% at AA this year. Evaluations on his major league future seem to be mixed. Leiter has walked more than he's struck out (-2.4 K-BB%) in 19 major league innings in relief in could have a difficult time in Arizona if that continues. Among those projected for more than eight fantasy points, Yonder Alonso may be the top value on FanDuel (3.74 Pt/$/K). He costs just $3.1K in his battle against Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .368 wOBA since last season). Using the same criteria on DraftKings, Jose Bautista (2.48 Pt/$/K) still costs less than $4K and faces Jakob Junis (41.3% of BBEs 95+ mph EV)

Mike Pelfrey has yet to have that signature blowup outing to begin his 2017 campaign but has consistently giving up runs and issuing free passes, evidenced by his inability to make it out the fifth inning in all but one start. Pelfrey strikes out hitters from both sides of the plate at a sub-10% rate, putting everyone in the Seattle Mariners lineup in play, though lefties are the preferred targets, as Pelfrey typically does an above-average job at keeping the ball on the ground (59.2% GB% in 2016) and limiting hard contact (26.3% HH%) to right-handed batters. However, last season against lefties, Pelfrey registered groundballs at a 45.3% rate with a 35.9% hard hit rate. Basically, Pelfrey cannot strike out left-handed batters and allows them to crush the baseball on a consistent basis. With Robinson Cano on the disabled list, Ben Gamel (168 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .191 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (140 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are the clear top targets in this Seattle lineup, while Nelson Cruz (159 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .258 ISO vs RHP) can always get ahold of one against any pitcher, let alone a starting pitcher of Pelfrey's caliber. Outside of that, hitters like Guillermo Heredia and Mike Freeman can be considered as salary-saving options to round out a Mariners stack in tournaments.

While there are plenty of reasons to attack Mike Pelfrey with LHBs (.377 wOBA, 35.7 Hard% since last season) and Mike Trout is as matchup proof a batter in the majors as there is, there may be an additional reason to avoid RHBs from this lineup tonight. Along with Pelfrey's 56.3 GB% and 25.8 Hard% against RHBs, despite a .365 wOBA allowed, the Angels are the fifth worst offense against GB pitchers this season with just an 80 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against them. Players may have also identified Zack Godley as a low cost arm with some potential upside, and rightfully so, as he's struck out 12 of 45 major league batters this year and has an 11.7 SwStr% in 123.1 career innings. You'd think he does himself additional favors with a 53.3 GB% too, but the Mets are among the best offenses at elevating pitches down in the zone with a 129 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. The sample is small individually, but top bats include Michael Conforto and Neil Walker, both with an sOPS+ at 240 or higher in more than 20 PAs this season. Each also has a wRC+ above 250 and hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Although no Met has more than one HR in the sample, Curtis Granderson (45 sOPS+) and Jose Reyes (89 sOPS+) have been the only below average LHBs.

The small slate tonight sees just two batters above a 300 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.), led by Nich Ahmed 323 with a 66.7 Hard% and three HRs in 14 PAs. Teammate Brandon Drury joins him in the top five via wRC+ (263 wRC+, 52.9 Hard%, 2 HRs in 21 PAs). Although they play in the highest runs scoring environment on the slate in Arizona, Zack Wheeler has had great success against RHBs this season (.259 wOBA, 20.4 Hard%), despite a narrow 3.9 K-BB%. Perhaps there's something there if you like bloopers and walks? Yasmani Grandal (307 wRC+, 38.1 Hard%, 1 HR) is the next hottest bat on the slate. He's done it with just a 4.2 K% in 24 PAs and has a nice matchup against Matt Cain (LHBs .385 wOBA since last season) despite the extreme negative run environment and power suppression of San Francisco. Buster Posey has a 296 wRC+ with a 45 Hard% and 4 HRs on the opposite side of that game. His matchup with Brandon McCarthy (RHBs .275 wOBA since last season) is not a strong one and may get worse with the bullpen likely to make an early appearance. Despite Mike Pelfrey's ground ball tendencies against RHBs (56.3% since last season), Mike Trout (289 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, 3 HRs in 17 PAs) may still be the top bat on the slate, as well as one of the hottest.