Mitch Haniger Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

When the Mariners face the Rangers, daily fantasy players are merely hoping for some pitching competence in two high upside spots. Both teams are likely to be sporting several 30K%+ bats in their lineups. Interestingly though, the Seattle lineup is not entirely depleted of competent bats against RHP either and most of those bats bat from the right side. What makes this even more intriguing though, is that batters from either side of the plate are within one point of a .337 wOBA against Mike Foltynewicz since 2019 and Statcast even raises same-handed bats to a .343 xwOBA. The Mariners have a reasonable 4.12 implied run line smack in the middle of the board today. Suddenly, this is turning into a spot where you might want to attack this pitcher. If so, Mitch Haniger is the key bat here. He is the only RHB in the lineup who exceeds a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP since 2019, along with a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Ty France only lacks in the power department (.139 ISO), while Kyle Lewis (124 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP) costs around $500 less, likely due to his 77 wRC+ this season. Chris Flexen also has a similar issue on the other side of this matchup, but wOBA and Statcast have a bit of a disagreement there (LHBs .339 wOBA, .300 xwOBA – RHBs .320 wOBA, .362 xwOBA). Keeping it simple, David Dahl and Jonah Heim are the only projected batters below a 105 wRC+ for the Rangers over the last 30 days. Texas is a bit higher on the board with a 4.38 implied run line.

A spot you’re unlikely to see many daily fantasy players land tonight is on Seattle bats with an implied run line below four. However, there’s a chance that RH Mariner bats may be one of the highest upside spots on the board. Jose Urquidy had an alarming velocity drop of over two miles per hour last time out with just one strikeout (three walks) in Colorado. It’s possibly the result of cold weather with a bounce back in store. He’s previously struck out 19 of 66 batters against the Mariners and A’s, but with just a 9.5 SwStr%. His ground ball rate sits at 24.1% and has only been above 25% once in four starts.

In his short career, Urquidy also has a massive reverse split (RHBs .371 wOBA, LHBs .214 xwOBA) and that’s substantiated by Statcast (.372 xwOBA, .272 xwOBA). Believe it or not, the Seattle lineup is not bereft of RHBs who hit same-handed pitching fairly well. Since 2019, Mitch Haniger has a 106 wRC+ and .235 ISO against them. He’s bounced back strongly from injury with a 151 wRC+ this year. The top performer in the projected lineup is Ty France with his 173 wRC+ this year. He has a 127 wRC+ with a bit less power (.154 ISO) vs RHP since 2019 and a .367 xwOBA is 10 points better than his actual performance against them over that span. We should find these two atop the Seattle lineup tonight with neither costing more than $4K on either site.

Andrew Heaney presents an interesting situation in his third starts. He has struck out 18 of 41 batters (10 Mariners too), but has allowed four HRs and a 91.8 mph aEV, 22.7% Barrels/BBE, 50% 95+ mph over his two starts. That’s a HR or strikeout for more than half the batters he’s faced so far. This is obviously unsustainable from either end, but HRs and strikeouts continues an established trend throughout his career. The Mariners are worse against LHP. Lots of strikeouts (26.1%), but predominantly RH with some power (16.4 HR/FB). Heaney’s not cheap, but less than $10K for that many strikeouts from a pitcher who should start going deeper into games isn’t too expensive. This is a pitcher players should consider some exposure too as HRs aren’t that big a deal when a pitcher is whiffing so many batters. However, we can also have it both ways. Edwin Encarnacion (131 wRC+, .209 ISO), Domingo Santana (132 wRC+, .284 ISO), and Mitch Haniger (145 wRC+, .199 ISO) have been Seattle’s best hitters against LHP over the last calendar year. RHBs are have a wOBA more than 100 points higher than LHBs against Heaney over the last calendar year.

Corbin Martin has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 11 innings since an impressive debut, where he struck out nine Rangers. The 50th ranked prospect (Fangraphs) has faced 56 batters since then, walking eight and striking out only seven, while allowing five HRs. Martin has had above average strikeout rates at every stop in professional baseball, so it’s not a question of talent, but he appears over-matched in recent starts. The good news is that his 31.6 HR/FB comes with a board best 17.6 Hard-Soft%, supported by a 17.6 LD% and 15.8 IFFB%. The Statcast numbers tell a different, and stranger story though. While he’s allowed just 5.9% Barrels/BBE (best on the board), he’s also generating a 90.1 mph aEV with 45.1% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. Estimators, all above five, stand by his 5.51 ERA. On a three game slate, this is a spot where players can certainly take GPP shots on his prospect upside in a secondary role on DraftKings for $7.1K, but Seattle bats are certainly worth a flyer as well, as a lot of players probably aren’t sure how to handle Martin yet and would rather attack Eric Lauer’s 4.8 SwStr% over the last month or Wade LeBlanc’s .410 xwOBA this season. Martin has allowed much harder contact (42.3 Hard%) and a .370 xwOBA to same-handed batters so far (LHBs 28 Hard%, .288 xwOBA). Mitch Haniger (134 wRC+, .174 ISO), Domingo Santana (115 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (135 wRC+, .214 ISO) have been the batters who have done the most damage to same-handed pitching this year. Tim Beckham (103 wRC+, .203 ISO) has been competent as well.

Shelby Miller has been awful by virtually every single metric this season (5.0 SwStr%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 44.3 Z-O-Swing%, 7.63 ERA, 7.51 SIERA, 90 mph aEV, .426 xwOBA) and while he does get a significant park bump outside of Texas tonight, the Mariners have shown they have no problems putting runs on the board at home, scoring in the double digits last night. The Mariners are right at five implied runs currently and that total is good for third best on the board. Further, there is an extremely hitter friendly umpire assigned to this game. Batters from either side of the plate are above both a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Miller since his return from surgery last year (eight starts). It’s not a large sample size, but large enough for players to confidently fire away on some Seattle bats. Dan Vogelbach (191 wRC+, .368 ISO, 52.2 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year) has been murdering baseballs this season and should be worth his increasing price tag. Omar Narvaez (140 wRC+, .185 ISO) is similarly increasing in cost and generally bats lower in the lineup, but should still have some appeal at a terrible position. Domingo Santana (138 wRC+, .221 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (124 wRC+, .238 ISO), Mitch Haniger (125 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Jay Bruce (96 wRC+, .183 ISO, but 270 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days) should round out the top half of a strong lineup tonight.

Felix Pena has the highest flyball rate on the slate tonight (min 10 IP) with a 50% rate in 2019. Given the recent talk of balls being juiced, it seems advantageous to target flyball pitchers, especially flyball pitchers that are bad. In addition to his FB rate, Pena has a 5.67 xFIP and 41.2% hard contact rate compared to a 0% soft contact rate on the year. Pena gets the start vs. Seattle tonight, whose offense has hit RHP well: Dan Vogelbach (.436 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Edwin Encarnacion (.353), Ryon Healy (.327) and Jay Bruce (.321) are all potential options tonight. Mitch Haniger (.279) has not seen much success yet this year but has a career .356 wOBA vs. RHP. Mallex Smith (.264 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) is always a threat for a steal and should see his usual leadoff spot. Seattle has a 4.41 implied total vs. Pena and the Angels.