Mitch Keller Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mitch Keller achieved his best results (5.2 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 5 K – 21 BF against the Padres) in a game that saw his velocity drop a mile per hour last time out. It makes you wonder if it was intended because he threw a season high 69.9% fastballs with a season low 4.8% sliders. That doesn’t sound like the kind of process that would improve your results in 2021 and, in fact, he generated just a 2.4 SwStr% in that start. Control issues seem to come and go, as he’s failed to strike out more than he’s walked in half of his starts, but walked a total of three combined in his remaining three. With just 33.8% of his contact on the ground and a 92.8 mph EV, batters have somehow generated just five Barrels (6.8%) against him. While his 6.29 ERA is above all estimators, a 4.58 FIP that seem a bit surreal is the best of them.

The Reds have a 109 wRC+ and 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP, but just a 62 wRC+ and 9.5 HR/FB on the road. This Votto-less projected lineup still has six batters above a 100 wRC+ with a .180 ISO or higher vs RHP since 2019, though only two (Nick Castellanos & Jesse Winker) are above a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. The lineup is projected to be balanced and batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA against Keller since 2019, but Statcast drives LHBs down to a .331 wOBA and RHBs to a .269 xwOBA. The Reds have a 4.14 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board today and with the park suppressing RH power, we want to focus on LHBs like Winker (147 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2019). Mike Moustakas (112 wRC+, .264 ISO) is cheaper, but has just a 39 wRC+ over the last month. Keller is not a cash game play and carries the second lowest projection of the day among pitchers who have a start this year. However, for GPP players, we can go over-weight based on inconsistency because he also currently holds the third highest ceiling according to PlateIQ projections. Embrace the volatility.

Mitch Keller has allowed fewer than five runs in just three of his eight starts that lasted more than two innings. The results are a complete fluke though. He’s struck out 28.2% of the batters he’s faced (21.6 K-BB%) with a 3.78 SIERA that’s less than half his ERA. Every single one of his estimators more than four runs below his actual ERA (.477 BABIP, 53.5 LOB%) and if you go straight to Statcast after that, the contact management hasn’t been ideal, but an 88.5 mph aEV and 7.7% Barrels/BBE with those peripherals still work out to a .308 xwOBA, over 100 points better than his actual results. The good news, aside from the massive positive regression expected is that the strikeouts play here, maybe more than the runs hurt. He’s also in a favorable spot against the Mariners, whom he gets in Pittsburgh, which means no DH and only one batter in the projected lineup below a 20 K% vs RHP this year. Keller has only completed six innings once this season, which takes away from his FanDuel potential, but a cost of $5.8K may still make him a viable contrarian GPP play. The strikeout rate still makes him useful on DraftKings at $8.1K as well. This is a case where gap between actual results and performance is so far apart that it can’t possibly be sustained that much longer.

Mitch Keller left his last start after just five batters when he was struck by a line drive. Through 33 major league innings, he has an 8.18 ERA that doesn’t nearly tell the entire story. His SIERA, FIP and xFIP are all below four and he’s struck out 27.9% of the batters he’s faced with a 20.3 K-BB%. How in the world does someone strike out that many batters and allow that many runs? He must be getting destroyed on contact. Although his 88.9 mph aEV is a bit high, his .311 xwOBA is 97 points better than his actual results. A .469 BABIP and 53.6 LOB% can’t possibly be sustained. There’s some massive positive regression coming for Keller and he’s in a great spot to realize it tonight. The Giants have a 77 wRC+ with an 8.9 HR/FB at home and an 83 wRC+ with a 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP. Over the last week, the team has just a 56 wRC+. Keller costs $8.8K on DraftKings, where he still has upside, but only $6.1K on FanDuel. Of course, he’s only completed six innings once, but he’s exceeded 90 pitches in five straight before being knocked out of his last start early. Any increase in efficiency should be able to get him through six.

Mitch Keller was pummeled for eight runs by the Phillies last time out, but still struck out eight of 24 batters following striking out nine of 24 Reds. He’s allowed six runs or more now in four of his seven starts and that’ll push your ERA up above eight, but he’s allowed a total of four earned in the other three and the underlying numbers are not that bad. He has a 19 K-BB% with a 4.11 SIERA, 3.92 FIP and .316 xwOBA. These are the marks of an above average pitcher and similar to his 20.2 K-BB% with a 3.59 FIP at AAA this year. While 41.1% of his contact above a 95 mph EV is not ideal, he’s facing an offense that struggles to hit the ball hard (Marlins 75 wRC+, 18.8 K-BB%, 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Over the last week, the Marlins have a team 53 wRC+ and 34.6 K%. This is a high upside spot for a pitcher who has struggled, but shown some positive signs and costs $8K or less on either site.

Mitch Keller has yet to find his footing through five major league starts (8.86 ERA). The peripherals aren’t terrible though (13.4 K-BB%, 4.34 FIP) and while he’s been hit fairly hard, his .350 xwOBA is still 64 points better than actual. He has struck out 28.2% of AAA batters in 19 starts and is a highly regarded prospect (Top 50 via Fangraphs with a 55 Future Value grade). The interesting thing here is the matchup. In a negative run environment that suppresses RH power, he’ll face a Cincinnati offense with just an 88 wRC+ and 15.5 K-BB% vs RHP this year, but it might be even worse than that. With Jesse Winker joining Joey Votto on the IL, the projected lineup for the Reds shows only Josh VanMeter, Freddy Galvis, Tucker Barnhart and Brian O’Grady from the left-hand side. This should be a really nice spot for a cheap pitcher ($6.6K on either site), who has yet to reach the upside he’s shown in the minors.

Pittsburgh’s 2nd ranked prospect (per Fangraphs) Keller has had an unfortunate start to the season with a horrendous 15.43 ERA so far over 7 innings in 2 starts. However, Keller’s 22.5% K rate, 5.08 xFIP and 4.85 SIERA show that things haven’t bad as disastrous as the ERA suggests. Keller did have a 3.10 ERA and 30.2% K rate over 58 innings in AAA before being called up to the majors and is a consensus top 100 prospect for a reason. He gets a nice matchup in pitcher-friendly PNC park tonight versus a weak Tigers offense. The Tigers have a league-worst 73 wRC+ with a 2nd worst 26.3% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They will have just three batters in their starting lineup who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .320 so far in 2019. Keller will have to deal with a terrible pitch framer with Elias Diaz behind the plate, but otherwise has plenty going for him in this matchup. He’s available for just $6.9k on Draftkings and just $5.5k on Fanduel tonight. The Tigers have just a 3.85 implied line versus Keller and the Pirates tonight.