Mitch Moreland Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Sometimes batters can run up enough PAs against a pitcher over a short enough period of time that we may have enough data to begin forming a conclusion. For instance, Nelson Cruz came into his matchup with Dallas Keuchel the other day with five HRs in 58 PAs and he did, in fact, homer again. Just 14 PAs is generally not a large enough sample to conclude anything, but the numbers are just so loud in this matchup that they demand your attention. Mitch Moreland has faced Matt Shoemaker just 14 times in his career and has homered five times with two doubles (98.4 mph EV). The BvP aspect isn’t the only thing that makes this an enticing matchup though. Twice in six starts this year, Shoemaker has failed to strike out a single batter and this Oakland lineup hits the ball hard. Eight of nine batters in the projected lineup (excluding Elvis Andrus) exceed a 92.5 mph EV on fly balls and line drives this year and have at least a 100 wRC+ and .192 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Exclude Jed Lowrie and those numbers jump up above 115 and .205, while the remaining seven are also above a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. LHBs have a .347 wOBA against Shoemaker since 2019 and while RHBs have just a .277 wOBA, Statcast drives them up to a .333 xwOBA. The A’s are implied for just 4.25 runs, which places them in the middle of the board, which seems more a function of park effects than anything else, but most of their numbers were compiled playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. The Minnesota bullpen also has a major league worst 5.32 FIP over the last 30 days. The only negative here is that three of the four projected LHBs in the Oakland lineup are all first base eligible, but make sure lineups secure plenty of exposure to LH Oakland bats tonight. This is a great spot for them.

Chi Chi Gonzalez gets his second spot start for the Rockies and has struck out nine of 41 batters this year, but with four walks and two HRs. He has just a 2.1 K-BB% in 149.1 career innings with an 88.1 mph EV and 45.5 GB%. The latter two numbers being perfectly average doesn’t really help much when your strikeout and walk rates are packed so closely together. He pitched four innings successfully against the Padres at Coors one week ago, allowing just one run with three strikeouts, but the track record is an ERA and estimators around five in nearly a full season’s worth of work for his career. The Padres have a 122 wRC+, 21.5 K% and 20.6 HR/FB vs RHP. They also have a 23.8 HR/FB at home this year. In 148 plate appearances LHBs have a .389 wOBA and .238 ISO against Gonzalez since last year. Some of that is Coors, but it’s still safe to say you want to roster batters with the platoon edge against him on most nights. While the Padres have plenty of perfectly fine choices, let’s focus on Mitch Moreland here. He has a .384 wOBA and .314 ISO vs RHP since 2019, a 157 wRC+ over the last month, has barreled 17.5% of his contact this year and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel tonight. Realistically, there probably aren’t going to be many poor choices in the San Diego lineup tonight.

Asher Wojciechowski has some value when he was missing bats earlier in the season, but that’s no longer the case. Combine that with a 29.4 GB% and there’s bound to be some damage even without a high aEV (10.9% Barrels/BBE). The Red Sox have the highest implied run line outside Coors or Texas tonight (6.36) and are starting the majority of their regulars tonight with Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP) and Rafael Devers (153 wRC+, .281 ISO). The absence of J.D. Martinez pushes Mitch Moreland (126 wRC+, .291 ISO), who has the top ISO vs RHP in this lineup and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel, into the cleanup spot. LHBs have a .382 wOBA (.361 xwOBA) against Wojciechowksi this year. Jackie Bradley Jr. (101 wRC+, .234 ISO) has had an under-rated season and moves a few spots up the order as well.

Trent Thornton has pitched to a 3.86 ERA over the last month, but has had an unearned run scored against him in each of his last three starts and his estimators are still right around five, in line with his season ERA (5.23) and estimators. In fact, his .336 xwOBA over the last 30 days is exactly the same as his season mark. His last two starts against the Red Sox have resulted in 12 ERs over just four innings, striking out a single one of the 32 batters he’s faced. This seems a get right spot for a Boston offense with a 66 wRC+ over the last seven days. Their 5.63 implied run line is fifth best on the board tonight, despite the expected absence of Mookie Betts. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Thornton this year with the latter showing no split at all (one point difference). Andrew Benintendi (106 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP) is projected to lead off at a reasonable cost on either site ($4K DK, $3K FD), but if Jackie Bradley Jr. (97 wRC+, .226 ISO) gets that spot, he could be even more interesting. He has the highest wRC+ of all projected Boston batters over the last seven days (150). Rafael Devers (149 wRC+, .279 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (149 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (128 wRC+, .286 ISO) are the only other expected starters above a .200 ISO against RHP this year. J.D. Martinez has been a rather average bat against same-handed pitching this year (108 wRC+, .192 ISO).

Despite a Coors game on tonight’s slate, the Red Sox currently own the highest implied total on the slate at 7.83. They are at home facing Aaron Brooks, who has an atrocious 6.35 ERA and 5.28 xFIP with an 11.9% K-BB, 39.3% hard contact rate and 8.5% SwStr. He also owns a .369 xwOBA allowed, .522 xSLG allowed, a 9.8% barrel rate and an 89.2 MPH aEV. Brooks has been more vulnerable vs. LHP this year over a 72 inning sample; he’s allowed a .343 xwOBA vs. righties compared to a .398 xwOBA vs. lefties. Given Brooks’ ineffectiveness, the Red Sox project to get plenty of plate appearances versus the Orioles’ bullpen, who has collectively allowed a 4th worst .348 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Mookie Betts (.405 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Rafael Devers (.395), JD Martinez (.383), Mitch Moreland (.367), Xander Bogaerts (.355), Andrew Benintendi (.330) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.326) are all great options. JD Martinez has been the hottest Red Sox hitter with a .416 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Benintendi, Moreland and Bradley Jr. are the only aforementioned players who do not have a $5k+ salary on Draftkings. Bradley is in a bit of a slump (.278 xwOBA over the past 14 days) but is just $3.8k on DK and is a cheap and likely contrarian way to get some exposure to the Red Sox lineup.